Dataset Information

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model.

Setting

World Health Organization regions.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal).

Results

Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions.

Conclusion

HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.

SUBMITTER: Silhol R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8397258 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

Silhol Romain R Coupland Helen H Baggaley Rebecca F RF Miller Lori L Staadegaard Lisa L Gottlieb Sami L SL Stannah James J Turner Katherine M E KME Vickerman Peter P Hayes Richard R Mayaud Philippe P Looker Katharine J KJ Boily Marie-Claude MC

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 20210901 1

<h4>Background</h4>Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model.<h4>Setting</h4>World Health Organization regions.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specif ...[more]

PMID: 34117163

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Dataset Information

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

Background

Setting

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

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