Dataset Information

Longitudinal development of incident gout from low-normal baseline serum urate concentrations: individual participant data analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Elevated serum urate (SU) concentration is the central risk factor for the development of gout. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence of gout in people with low and normal SU levels (< 7.00 mg/dL).

Methods

Longitudinal cohort data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA), and both the Original and Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) were used to determine incident gout by baseline SU over 3, 5, 10, 12 and 15 year periods. A Cox proportional hazards model with covariables of age, gender, ethnicity, and cohort was calculated to report the hazard ratios (HR) for incident gout.

Results

The incidence of gout at 15 years for a baseline SU < 4.00 mg/dL was 0.59%, 4.00-4.49 mg/dL was 1.28%, 4.50-4.99 mg/dL was 0.86%, 5.00-5.49 mg/dL was 0.94%, 5.50-5.99 mg/dL was 1.52%, 6.00-6.49 mg/dL was 2.91%, 6.50-6.99 mg/dL was 3.2%, and > 7.00 mg/dL was 12.2%. In an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, compared to the referent baseline SU < 4.00 mg/dL, there was a non-significant increase in incident gout for baseline SU bands between 4.00-5.49 mg/dL, whereas incident gout was significantly increased for SU 5.50-5.99 mg/dL (HR 2.60), 6.00-6.49 mg/dL (HR 3.70), 6.50-6.99 mg/dL (HR 5.24) and > 7.00 mg/dL (HR 18.62).

Conclusion

A baseline SU of 5.50 mg/dL or more is a risk factor for development of gout over 15 years. However, incident gout does occur over time in a small proportion of people with lower baseline SU levels.

SUBMITTER: Robinson PC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8399746 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies have noted significant variation in serum urate (sUA) levels, and it is unknown how this influences the accuracy of hyperuricemia classification based on single data points. Despite this known variability, hyperuricemic patients are often used as a control group in gout studies. Our objective was to determine the accuracy of hyperuricemia classifications based on single data points versus multiple data points given the degree of variability observed with serial measurements of sUA.MethodsData was analyzed from a cross-over clinical trial of urate-lowering therapy in young adults without a gout diagnosis. In the control phase, sUA levels used for this analysis were collected at 2-4 week intervals. Mean coefficient of variation for sUA was determined, as were rates of conversion between normouricemia (sUA ≤6.8 mg/dL) and hyperuricemia (sUA > 6.8 mg/dL).ResultsMean study participant (n = 85) age was 27.8 ± 7.0 years, with 39% female participants and 41% African-American participants. Mean sUA coefficient of variation was 8.5% ± 4.9% (1 to 23%). There was no significant difference in variation between men and women, or between participants initially normouricemic and those who were initially hyperuricemic. Among those initially normouricemic (n = 72), 21% converted to hyperuricemia during at least one subsequent measurement. The subgroup with initial sUA < 6.0 (n = 54) was much less likely to have future values in the range of hyperuricemia compared to the group with screening sUA values between 6.0-6.8 (n = 18) (7% vs 39%, p = 0.0037). Of the participants initially hyperuricemic (n = 13), 46% were later normouricemic during at least one measurement.ConclusionSingle sUA measurements were unreliable in hyperuricemia classification due to spontaneous variation. Knowing this, if a single measurement must be used in classification, it is worth noting that those with an sUA of < 6.0 mg/dL were less likely to demonstrate future hyperuricemic measurements and this could be considered a safer threshold to rule out intermittent hyperuricemia based on a single measurement point.Trial registrationData from parent study ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02038179 .