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Surveillance systems for monitoring cervical cancer elimination efforts: Focus on HPV infection, cervical dysplasia, cervical screening and treatment.

ABSTRACT: In order to achieve the global elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem, close surveillance of progress in public health and clinical activities and outcomes across the three pillars of vaccination, screening and treatment will be required. Surveillance should ideally occur within an integrated system that is planned, funded, and regularly evaluated to ensure it is providing timely, accurate and relevant feedback for action. In this paper, we conceptualise the main public health surveillance objectives as process and outcome measures in each of the three pillars. Process measures include coverage/participation measures for vaccination, screening and treatment alongside the ongoing assessment of the quality and reach of these programs and activities. Outcome measures related to the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection include HPV infection prevalence, precursor cervical lesions and cervical cancers (including stage at diagnosis, cancer incidence and mortality). These outcome measures can be used for monitoring the effectiveness of the three core activities in the short, medium and long term to assess whether these interventions are effectively reducing their occurrence. We discuss possible methods for the surveillance of these measures in the context of country capacity, drawing from examples in Australia, the USA and in low and middle income countries.

SUBMITTER: Brotherton JML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8403014 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination.MethodsThe WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening. Girls were vaccinated at age 9 years (with a catch-up to age 14 years), assuming 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection against HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Cervical screening involved HPV testing once or twice per lifetime at ages 35 years and 45 years, with uptake increasing from 45% (2023) to 90% (2045 onwards). The elimination thresholds examined were an average age-standardised cervical cancer incidence of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years and ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and an 85% or greater reduction in incidence. Sensitivity analyses were done, varying vaccination and screening strategies and assumptions. We summarised results using the median (range) of model predictions.FindingsGirls-only HPV vaccination was predicted to reduce the median age-standardised cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4-19·8) to 2·1 (2·0-2·6) cases per 100 000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2-90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million (60·5-63·0) cases during this period. Adding twice-lifetime screening reduced the incidence to 0·7 (0·6-1·6) cases per 100 000 women-years (96·7% [91·3-96·7] reduction) and averted an extra 12·1 million (9·5-13·7) cases. Girls-only vaccination was predicted to result in elimination in 60% (58-65) of LMICs based on the threshold of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, in 99% (89-100) of LMICs based on the threshold of ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and in 87% (37-99) of LMICs based on the 85% or greater reduction threshold. When adding twice-lifetime screening, 100% (71-100) of LMICs reached elimination for all three thresholds. In regions in which all countries can achieve cervical cancer elimination with girls-only vaccination, elimination could occur between 2059 and 2102, depending on the threshold and region. Introducing twice-lifetime screening accelerated elimination by 11-31 years. Long-term vaccine protection was required for elimination.InterpretationPredictions were consistent across our three models and suggest that high HPV vaccination coverage of girls can lead to cervical cancer elimination in most LMICs by the end of the century. Screening with high uptake will expedite reductions and will be necessary to eliminate cervical cancer in countries with the highest burden.FundingWHO, UNDP, UN Population Fund, UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Program of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre for Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control.

Project description:Tropical diseases remain a major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Although combined health efforts brought about significant improvements over the past 20 years, communities in resource-constrained settings lack the means of strengthening their environment in directions that would provide less favourable conditions for pathogens. Still, the impact of infectious diseases is declining worldwide along with progress made regarding responses to basic health problems and improving health services delivery to the most vulnerable populations. The London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), initiated by the World Health Organization's NTD roadmap, set out the path towards control and eventual elimination of several tropical diseases by 2020, providing an impetus for local and regional disease elimination programmes. Tropical diseases are often patchy and erratic, and there are differing priorities in resources-limited and endemic countries at various levels of their public health systems. In order to identify and prioritize strategic research on elimination of tropical diseases, the 'First Forum on Surveillance-Response System Leading to Tropical Diseases Elimination' was convened in Shanghai in June 2012. Current strategies and the NTD roadmap were reviewed, followed by discussions on how to identify and critically examine prevailing challenges and opportunities, including inter-sectoral collaboration and approaches for elimination of several infectious, tropical diseases. A priority research agenda within a 'One Health-One World' frame of global health was developed, including (i) the establishment of a platform for resource-sharing and effective surveillance-response systems for Asia Pacific and Africa with an initial focus on elimination of lymphatic filariasis, malaria and schistosomiasis; (ii) development of new strategies, tools and approaches, such as improved diagnostics and antimalarial therapies; (iii) rigorous validation of surveillance-response systems; and (iv) designing pilot studies to transfer Chinese experiences of successful surveillance-response systems to endemic countries with limited resources.

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Surveillance systems for monitoring cervical cancer elimination efforts: Focus on HPV infection, cervical dysplasia, cervical screening and treatment.

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