Epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Taiwan, May to June 2021.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lee WC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8403659 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has gripped the entire world, almost paralysing the human race in its entirety. The virus rapidly transmits via human-to-human medium resulting in a massive increase of patients with COVID-19. In order to curb the spread of the disease, an immediate action of complete lockdown was implemented across the globe. India with a population of over 1.3 billion was not an exception and took the challenge to execute phase-wise lockdown, unlock and partial lockdown activities. In this study, we intend to summarise these different phases that the Government of India (GoI) imposed to fight against SARS-CoV-2 so that it can act as a reference guideline to help controlling future waves of COVID-19 and similar pandemic situations in India.
| S-EPMC8339284 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesIn Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27.Study designVital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021.MethodsA quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval.ResultsSince January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12-18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31-June 6 (excess deaths: 1431-2587; excess percentage: 5.95-10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures.ConclusionsFor the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.
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Project description:Objective To describe case rates, testing rates and percent positivity of COVID-19 among children aged 0–18 years by school-age grouping. Design We abstracted data from Georgia’s State Electronic Notifiable Disease Surveillance System on all 10 437 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases among children aged 0–18 years during 30 March 2020 to 6 June 2021. We examined case rates, testing rates and percent positivity by school-aged groupings, namely: preschool (0–4 years), elementary school (5–10 years), middle school (11–13 years), and high school (14–18 years) and compared these data among school-aged children with those in the adult population (19 years and older). Setting Fulton County, Georgia. Main outcome measures COVID-19 case rates, testing rates and percent positivity. Results Over time, the proportion of paediatric cases rose substantially from 1.1% (April 2020) to 21.6% (April 2021) of all cases in the county. Age-specific case rates and test rates were consistently highest among high-school aged children. Test positivity was similar across school-age groups, with periods of higher positivity among high-school aged children. Conclusions Low COVID-19 testing rates among children, especially early in the pandemic, likely underestimated the true burden of disease in this age group. Despite children having lower measured incidence of COVID-19, we found when broader community incidence increased, incidence also increased among all paediatric age groups. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, it remains critical to continue learning about the incidence and transmissibility of COVID-19 in children.
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Project description:BackgroundPublic health and social measures (PHSM) against COVID-19 in Japan involve requesting the public to voluntarily reduce social contact; these measures are not legally binding. The effectiveness of such PHSM has been questioned with emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (B.1.1.7), which exhibited elevated transmissibility.Materials and methodsWe investigated the epidemic dynamics during the fourth epidemic wave in Japan from March to June 2021 involving pre-emergency measures and declaration of a state of emergency (SoE). We estimated the effective reproduction number (R t ) before and after these interventions, and then analyzed the relationship between lower R t values and each PHSM.ResultsWith implementation of pre-emergency measures (PEM) in 16 prefectures, the R t was estimated to be < 1 in six prefectures; its average relative reduction ranged from 2 to 19%. During the SoE, 8 of 10 prefectures had an estimated R t < 1, and the average relative reduction was 26%-39%. No single intervention was identified that uniquely resulted in an R t value < 1.ConclusionAn SoE can substantially reduce the R t and may be required to curb a surge in cases caused by future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern with elevated transmissibility. More customized interventions did not reduce the R t value to < 1 in this study, but that may be partly attributable to the greater transmissibility of the Alpha variant.
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Project description:To assess the current epidemic trend of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 in India, the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 cases in India in terms of Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Case Recovery Rate (CRR) and Mortality rate (MR) COVID-19 have been evaluated during Lockdown-1. The analysis includes (i) epidemic curve of Covid-19 cases (ii) demographic analysis (iii) calculation of the CFR and CRR by different methods (iv) calculation of MR (v) Geo-temporal analysis (vi) epidemiological transmission factor (vii) evaluation of the effects and impact of infection, prevention and control in India. A total of 10,815 COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported in 31 states/union territories as of April 14, 2020 with 9272 active cases (85.73%), 1190 cured/discharged (11%), and 353 deaths (3.23%). Among confirmed cases, most cases (59%) are aged 20-49 which is working age in India and 76% cases are reported for men. The median age of Indian COVID-19 patients found to be 39. As of April 14, the CFR per total cases in India is 3.32% and per closed cases is 23.27%. The CRR per total cases in India is 11.00% and per closed cases is 76.72%, which indicates that the recovery rate of COVID-19 is more than the fatality rate in India. The prevention and control measures taken by the state and central governments at all levels and measure of maintenance of social distancing by people have resulted in effective curbing in the COVID-19 transmission in India.
| S-EPMC7309423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has wreaked havoc on millions of people around the world. Although China quickly brought the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) under control, there have been several sporadic outbreaks in different regions of China since June 2020. This article described the chronological nosocomial COVID-19 infection events related to several sporadic outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 in different regions of China. We have reported epidemiological characteristics and management measures of sporadic nosocomial COVID-19 infections from June 2020 to June 2021 and specially focused on the domestic COVID-19 breakthrough infection in China, such as domestic COVID-19 breakthrough infection-a vaccinated healthcare professional working in the isolation ward of a designated COVID-19 hospital.
| S-EPMC8581141 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently been declared as a pandemic and spread over 200 countries and territories. Forecasting the long-term trend of the COVID-19 epidemic can help health authorities determine the transmission characteristics of the virus and take appropriate prevention and control strategies beforehand. Previous studies that solely applied traditional epidemic models or machine learning models were subject to underfitting or overfitting problems. We propose a new model named Dynamic-Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Quarantined (D-SEIQ), by making appropriate modifications of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) model and integrating machine learning based parameter optimization under epidemiological rational constraints. We used the model to predict the long-term reported cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases in China from January 27, 2020. We evaluated our model on officially reported confirmed cases from three different regions in China, and the results proved the effectiveness of our model in terms of simulating and predicting the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. In China-Excluding-Hubei area within 7 days after the first public report, our model successfully and accurately predicted the long trend up to 40 days and the exact date of the outbreak peak. The predicted cumulative number (12,506) by March 10, 2020, was only 3·8% different from the actual number (13,005). The parameters obtained by our model proved the effectiveness of prevention and intervention strategies on epidemic control in China. The prediction results for five other countries suggested the external validity of our model. The integrated approach of epidemic and machine learning models could accurately forecast the long-term trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. The model parameters also provided insights into the analysis of COVID-19 transmission and the effectiveness of interventions in China.
| S-EPMC7713358 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAn outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infection occurred in Pingtung, Taiwan, in June 2021. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the clinical characteristics of the Delta-variant SARS-CoV-2 infection and the treatment outcome of antiviral agents in patients from Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan.MethodsA total of 11 patients with Delta-variant COVID-19 were consecutively admitted to a governmental hospital in June 2021. Baseline characteristics and treatment outcome were evaluated.ResultsAll patients were symptomatic. The most common symptoms were cough (72.7%), followed by fever (54.5%), headache (18.2%) and dysosmia/dysgeusia (18.2%). Two patients developed pneumonia without mechanical ventilation requirement. Compared to patients without pneumonia, those with pneumonia had higher aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (21.0 vs. 126.0 IU/L, P = 0.03) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (143.1 vs. 409.0 IU/mL, P = 0.03), and ferritin (0.2 vs. 2.0 mg/L, P = 0.046) levels. Pneumonia improved after 2-week treatment, and no mortality occurred after 30 days of diagnosis. The median duration of viral shedding duration of viral shedding was 16.5 days (range 11-42 days) (defined by time to repeated negative real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or a cycle threshold (CT) value ≥ 30).ConclusionWe demonstrated the clinical characteristics of Delta-variant COVID-19 and treatment outcome of antiviral agents. The risk factors attributed to pneumonia were higher serum AST, ferritin, and LDH levels.
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