Impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost in the United States.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chan EYS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8409675 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe mortality effects of COVID-19 are a critical aspect of the disease's impact. Years of life lost (YLLs) can provide greater insight than the number of deaths by conveying the shortfall in life expectancy and thus the age profile of the decedents.MethodsWe employed data regarding COVID-19 deaths in the USA by jurisdiction, gender and age group for the period 1 February 2020 through 11 July 2020. We used actuarial life expectancy tables by gender and age to estimate YLLs.ResultsWe estimated roughly 1.2 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths. The YLLs for the top six jurisdictions exceeded those for the remaining 43. On a per-capita basis, female YLLs were generally higher than male YLLs throughout the country.ConclusionsOur estimates offer new insight into the effects of COVID-19. Our findings of heterogenous rates of YLLs by geography and gender highlight variation in the magnitude of the pandemic's effects that may inform effective policy responses.
| S-EPMC7499646 | biostudies-literature
Project description:How much life in the United States is lost to encounters with the police? I build on a demographic life table model by Edwards, Lee, and Esposito to estimate, for race- and gender-specific populations, how many years of life are lost in two categories of police encounter: (1) encounters involving officer use of force, and (2) all deaths involving police encounters. Average life years lost by individuals who are killed ranges from 39 years (white men) to 52 years (Native women). The loss of years per 100,000 people over their collective lifetimes is largest for Black men, with 5,696 years of life lost to all encounters with police, of which 3,772 years are lost to police use of force. This implies a loss of roughly 16,000 years of life for recent cohorts of Black men. These results provide context for current debates surrounding the cost and necessity of protests.
| S-EPMC7598086 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceActive tuberculosis (TB) disease leads to substantial mortality but is preventable through screening and treatment for latent TB infection. Early mortality after TB diagnosis (≤1 year) is well described, but delayed mortality (>1 year) among patients with active TB is poorly understood.ObjectiveTo compare early and delayed mortality and years of potential life (YPL) lost among patients with active TB disease vs an age-, sex-, and year of diagnosis-matched comparison cohort without active TB disease.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study, conducted in the integrated health system of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, included patients with microbiologically confirmed active TB disease from January 1, 1997, to December 31, 2017, and a control cohort matched by age, sex, and year of diagnosis. Multivariable models were used to adjust for demographic and clinical characteristics. Patients with active TB disease prior to 1997 were excluded. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to January 31, 2020.ExposureMicrobiologically confirmed TB disease.Main outcomes and measuresEarly (≤1 year after TB diagnosis) and delayed (>1 year after TB diagnosis) all-cause mortality.ResultsA total of 2522 patients who had active TB from 1997 to 2017 were identified, with 17 166 person-years of follow-up. The comparison cohort included 100 880 persons with 735 726 person-years of follow-up. In the active TB and comparison cohorts, similar percentages of persons were male (56.3% vs 55.6%), aged 45 to 64 years (33.7% vs 33.7%), and aged 65 years or older (24.7% vs 24.7%). Both early mortality (7.0%) and delayed mortality (16.3%) were higher among patients with active TB disease compared with those without active TB disease (1.1% and 12.0%, respectively). Patients with active TB disease had a significantly higher risk for early (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 7.29; 95% CI, 6.08-8.73) and delayed (aHR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.61-1.98) mortality compared with the comparison cohort (P < .001). Active TB disease was associated with an adjusted -7.0 (95% CI, -8.4 to -5.5) YPL lost compared with the comparison cohort.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, patients with active TB disease had significantly higher early and delayed all-cause mortality when adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. These findings suggest that TB prevention through screening and treatment of latent TB infection could reduce mortality and YPL lost due to active TB disease.
| S-EPMC7512053 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:US life expectancy has not kept pace with that of other wealthy countries and is now decreasing. Objective:To examine vital statistics and review the history of changes in US life expectancy and increasing mortality rates; and to identify potential contributing factors, drawing insights from current literature and an analysis of state-level trends. Evidence:Life expectancy data for 1959-2016 and cause-specific mortality rates for 1999-2017 were obtained from the US Mortality Database and CDC WONDER, respectively. The analysis focused on midlife deaths (ages 25-64 years), stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography (including the 50 states). Published research from January 1990 through August 2019 that examined relevant mortality trends and potential contributory factors was examined. Findings:Between 1959 and 2016, US life expectancy increased from 69.9 years to 78.9 years but declined for 3 consecutive years after 2014. The recent decrease in US life expectancy culminated a period of increasing cause-specific mortality among adults aged 25 to 64 years that began in the 1990s, ultimately producing an increase in all-cause mortality that began in 2010. During 2010-2017, midlife all-cause mortality rates increased from 328.5 deaths/100 000 to 348.2 deaths/100 000. By 2014, midlife mortality was increasing across all racial groups, caused by drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides, and a diverse list of organ system diseases. The largest relative increases in midlife mortality rates occurred in New England (New Hampshire, 23.3%; Maine, 20.7%; Vermont, 19.9%) and the Ohio Valley (West Virginia, 23.0%; Ohio, 21.6%; Indiana, 14.8%; Kentucky, 14.7%). The increase in midlife mortality during 2010-2017 was associated with an estimated 33 307 excess US deaths, 32.8% of which occurred in 4 Ohio Valley states. Conclusions and Relevance:US life expectancy increased for most of the past 60 years, but the rate of increase slowed over time and life expectancy decreased after 2014. A major contributor has been an increase in mortality from specific causes (eg, drug overdoses, suicides, organ system diseases) among young and middle-aged adults of all racial groups, with an onset as early as the 1990s and with the largest relative increases occurring in the Ohio Valley and New England. The implications for public health and the economy are substantial, making it vital to understand the underlying causes.
| S-EPMC7146991 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBurden of cancer mortality is often measured by death counts or mortality rates, but potential years of life lost (PYLL) and PYLL per death may be more useful to estimate the impact of cancer-related deaths occurring at younger ages.MethodsWe used U.S. national death certificate data. A total of 45 categories of common cancers were grouped for cancer-specific calculations of PYLL and PYLL per death. PYLL was defined as the sum of the total years of life lost prior to age 75 years.ResultsThe largest number of PYLL in 2017 was due to deaths from cancers of the lung/bronchus (891,313; 20.8%), colon/rectum (409,538; 9.6%), and breast (400,643; 9.4%). Cancers with the highest PYLLs generally also caused the largest number of deaths and had the highest mortality rates, with the exception of prostate cancer (5.1% of deaths, 2.0% of PYLL). In contrast, PYLLs per death were greatest for deaths due to cancers of testis (mean = 34.0 years), bones/joints (26.4), and other endocrine sites including thymus (25.2).ConclusionsAlthough PYLLs generally reflect mortality rates, they more heavily weigh cancers that occur at younger ages. In contrast, PYLL per death, which is an average quantification of life years lost for individual patients with cancer, shows a different pattern.ImpactMortality rates, PYLL, and PYLL per death are complementary measures of the burden of deaths due to cancer that should be considered in tandem to prioritize public health interventions focused on preventing premature mortality.
| S-EPMC7710589 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesWe estimated years of life lost (YLLs) to all causes of death and YLL lost to cancer among persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States.DesignLinked HIV and cancer registry data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study were used to identify incident cancers and deaths among PWH in 11 regions of the United States during 2006-2015.MethodsMean YLL (MYLL) to all causes of death and MYLL to cancer during 2006-2015 were derived from the restricted mean survival estimated from Cox proportional hazards regression models. MYLLs were then upweighted to the national population of PWH to obtain all-cause total YLL (TYLL) and cancer-related TYLL in the United Staets during 2006-2015.ResultsAmong 466 234 PWH in the study population, 25 772 (5.5%) developed cancer during 2006-2015. Nationally, an estimated 134 986 years of life were lost to cancer of all types during 2006-2015 among PWH, representing 9.6% of TYLL to all causes. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), Kaposi sarcoma, anal cancer, and lung cancer were the four largest cancer contributors (45% of TYLL to cancer). The largest fraction of TYLL occurred among back PWH, MSM, and PWH aged 40-59 years old.ConclusionPWH have higher mortality rates after developing cancer. NHL, Kaposi sarcoma and anal and lung cancers were large contributors to YLL to cancer in the United States population of PWH, highlighting opportunities to reduce cancer mortality through improved access to antiretroviral treatment, prevention, and screening.
| S-EPMC9283267 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlcohol has been linked to health disparities between races in the US; however, race-specific alcohol-attributable mortality has never been estimated. The objective of this article is to estimate premature mortality attributable to alcohol in the US in 2005, differentiated by race, age and sex for people 15 to 64 years of age.Methods and findingsMortality attributable to alcohol was estimated based on alcohol-attributable fractions using indicators of exposure from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and risk relations from the Comparative Risk Assessment study. Consumption data were corrected for undercoverage (the observed underreporting of alcohol consumption when using survey as compared to sales data) using adult per capita consumption from WHO databases. Mortality data by cause of death were obtained from the US Department of Health and Human Services. For people 15 to 64 years of age in the US in 2005, alcohol was responsible for 55,974 deaths (46,461 for men; 9,513 for women) representing 9.0% of all deaths, and 1,288,700 PYLL (1,087,280 for men; 201,420 for women) representing 10.7% of all PYLL. Per 100,000 people, this represents 29 deaths (29 for White; 40 for Black; 82 for Native Americans; 6 for Asian/Pacific Islander) and 670 PYLL (673 for White; 808 for Black; 1,808 for Native American; 158 for Asian/Pacific Islander). Sensitivity analyses showed a lower but still substantial burden without adjusting for undercoverage.ConclusionsThe burden of mortality attributable to alcohol in the US is unequal among people of different races and between men and women. Racial differences in alcohol consumption and the resulting harms explain in part the observed disparities in the premature mortality burden between races, suggesting the need for interventions for specific subgroups of the population such as Native Americans.
| S-EPMC3534703 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeThe magnitude and drivers of excess cerebrovascular-specific mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We aim to quantify excess stroke-related deaths and characterize its association with social distancing behavior and COVID-19-related vascular pathology.MethodsUnited States and state-level excess cerebrovascular deaths from January to May 2020 were quantified using National Center for Health Statistic data and Poisson regression models. Excess cerebrovascular deaths were analyzed as a function of time-varying stroke-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls and cumulative COVID-19 deaths using linear regression. A state-level regression analysis was performed to determine the association between excess cerebrovascular deaths and time spent in residences, measured by Google Community Mobility Reports, during the height of the pandemic after the first COVID-19 death (February 29).ResultsForty states and New York City were included. Excess cerebrovascular mortality occurred nationally from the weeks ending March 28 to May 2, 2020, up to a 7.8% increase above expected levels during the week of April 18. Decreased stroke-related EMS calls were associated with excess stroke deaths one (70 deaths per 1000 fewer EMS calls [95% CI, 20-118]) and 2 weeks (85 deaths per 1000 fewer EMS calls [95% CI, 37-133]) later. Twenty-three states and New York City experienced excess cerebrovascular mortality during the pandemic height. A 10% increase in time spent at home was associated with a 4.3% increase in stroke deaths (incidence rate ratio, 1.043 [95% CI, 1.001-1.085]) after adjusting for COVID-19 deaths.ConclusionsExcess US cerebrovascular deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were observed and associated with decreases in stroke-related EMS calls nationally and mobility at the state level. Public health measures are needed to identify and counter the reticence to seeking medical care for acute stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7834664 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Using data for 201 regions (NUTS 2) in Europe, we examine the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and how the mortality inequalities between regions changed between 2020 and 2022. We show that over the three years of the pandemic, not only did the level of excess mortality rate change considerably, but also its geographical distribution. Focusing on life expectancy as a summary measure of mortality conditions, we find that the variance of regional life expectancy increased sharply in 2021 but returned to the pre-pandemic level in 2022. The 2021 increase was due to a much higher-than-average excess mortality in regions with lower pre-pandemic life expectancy. While the life expectancy inequality has returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, the observed life expectancy in almost all regions is far below that expected without the pandemic.
| S-EPMC10869827 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Excessive alcohol use is a leading cause of preventable death in the United States (1) and costs associated with it, such as those from losses in workplace productivity, health care expenditures, and criminal justice, were $249 billion in 2010 (2). CDC used the Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) application* to estimate national and state average annual alcohol-attributable deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) during 2011-2015, including deaths from one's own excessive drinking (e.g., liver disease) and from others' drinking (e.g., passengers killed in alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes). This study found an average of 95,158 alcohol-attributable deaths (261 deaths per day) and 2.8 million YPLL (29 years of life lost per death, on average) in the United States each year. Of all alcohol-attributable deaths, 51,078 (53.7%) were caused by chronic conditions, and 52,921 (55.6%) involved adults aged 35-64 years. Age-adjusted alcohol-attributable deaths per 100,000 population ranged from 20.8 in New York to 53.1 in New Mexico. YPLL per 100,000 population ranged from 631.9 in New York to 1,683.5 in New Mexico. Implementation of effective strategies for preventing excessive drinking, including those recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force (e.g., increasing alcohol taxes and regulating the number and concentration of alcohol outlets), could reduce alcohol-attributable deaths and YPLL.†.
| S-EPMC7537556 | biostudies-literature