Dataset Information

Chaotic dynamics in a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models based on fractional-order differential equations have recently gained interesting insights into epidemiological phenomena, by virtue of their memory effect and nonlocal nature. This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic behavior of a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives. The model is based on the Caputo operator and takes into account the daily new cases, the daily additional severe cases, and the daily deaths. By analyzing the stability of the equilibrium points and by continuously varying the values of the fractional order, the paper shows that the conceived COVID-19 pandemic model exhibits chaotic behaviors. The system dynamics are investigated via bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents, time series, and phase portraits. A comparison between integer-order and fractional-order COVID-19 pandemic models highlights that the latter is more accurate in predicting the daily new cases. Simulation results, besides to confirming that the novel fractional model well fit the real pandemic data, also indicate that the numbers of new cases, severe cases, and deaths undertake chaotic behaviors without any useful attempt to control the disease.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-06867-5.

SUBMITTER: Debbouche N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8415202 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Chaotic dynamics in a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives.

Debbouche Nadjette N Ouannas Adel A Batiha Iqbal M IM Grassi Giuseppe G

Nonlinear dynamics 20210903 1

Mathematical models based on fractional-order differential equations have recently gained interesting insights into epidemiological phenomena, by virtue of their memory effect and nonlocal nature. This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic behavior of a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives. The model is based on the Caputo operator and takes into account the daily new cases, the daily additional severe cases, and the daily dea ...[more]

PMID: 34511721

Similar Datasets

Project description:The mechanisms of atrial fibrillation (AF) are a challenging research topic. The rotor hypothesis states that the AF is sustained by a reentrant wave that propagates around an unexcited core. Cardiac tissue heterogeneities, both structural and cellular, play an important role during fibrillatory dynamics, so that the ionic characteristics of the currents, their spatial distribution and their structural heterogeneity determine the meandering of the rotor. Several studies about rotor dynamics implement the standard diffusion equation. However, this mathematical scheme carries some limitations. It assumes the myocardium as a continuous medium, ignoring, therefore, its discrete and heterogeneous aspects. A computational model integrating both, electrical and structural properties could complement experimental and clinical results. A new mathematical model of the action potential propagation, based on complex fractional order derivatives is presented. The complex derivative order appears of considering the myocardium as discrete-scale invariant fractal. The main aim is to study the role of a myocardial, with fractal characteristics, on atrial fibrillatory dynamics. For this purpose, the degree of structural heterogeneity is described through derivatives of complex order γ = α + jβ. A set of variations for γ is tested. The real part α takes values ranging from 1.1 to 2 and the imaginary part β from 0 to 0.28. Under this scheme, the standard diffusion is recovered when α = 2 and β = 0. The effect of γ on the action potential propagation over an atrial strand is investigated. Rotors are generated in a 2D model of atrial tissue under electrical remodeling due to chronic AF. The results show that the degree of structural heterogeneity, given by γ, modulates the electrophysiological properties and the dynamics of rotor-type reentrant mechanisms. The spatial stability of the rotor and the area of its unexcited core are modulated. As the real part decreases and the imaginary part increases, simulating a higher structural heterogeneity, the vulnerable window to reentrant is increased, as the total meandering of the rotor tip. This in silico study suggests that structural heterogeneity, described by means of complex order derivatives, modulates the stability of rotors and that a wide range of rotor dynamics can be generated.

Dataset Information

Chaotic dynamics in a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives.

Supplementary information

Publications

Chaotic dynamics in a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets