Age-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 in Ontario with human mobility during pandemic's first wave.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Fields R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8419869 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value. Methods: Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions. Our fitted model captures spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in the first phase of the epidemic to a fine geographical scale. Results: We find that lockdown restrictions reduced transmission rates down to an estimated 12\% of its pre-lockdown rate. We show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not. However, poor health associated with deprivation has a considerable association with mortality; the Council Area (CA) with the greatest health-related deprivation was found to have a mortality rate 2.45 times greater than the CA with the lowest health-related deprivation considering all deaths occurring outside of carehomes. Conclusions: We find that in even an early epidemic with poor case ascertainment, a useful spatially explicit model can be fit with meaningful parameters based on the spatio-temporal distribution of death counts. Our simple approach is useful to strategically examine trade-offs between travel related restrictions and physical distancing, and the effect of deprivation-related factors on outcomes.
| S-EPMC9274017 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic's first wave required considerable adaptation efforts on the part of healthcare workers. The literature on resilient healthcare describes how the collective regulation strategies implemented by frontline employees make essential contributions to institutions' abilities to cope with major crises. The present mixed-methodology study was thus conducted among a large sample of employees in a variety of Swiss healthcare institutions and focused on problematic real-world situations experienced by them and their managers during the pandemic's first wave. It highlighted the anticipatory and adaptive strategies implemented by institutions, teams and individuals. The most frequently cited problematic situations involved organisational changes, interpersonal conflicts and workloads. In addition to the numerous top-down measures implemented by institutions, respondents also identified personal or team regulation strategies such as increasing staff flexibility, prioritising tasks, interprofessional collaboration, peer support or creating new communication channels to families. The present findings underlined the importance of taking greater account of healthcare support staff and strengthening managerial capacity to support interprofessional teams including those support staff.
| S-EPMC8545718 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThis study aims to evaluate the impact of the first coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) wave in 2020 on patients scheduled for intravitreal injections (IVI) in a German metropolitan region.MethodsWe performed a multicentre prospective survey and retrospective analysis of the records of patients treated with intravitreal injections during the 20-week period from March to July 2020 in all four hospital eye departments in the city of Hamburg using a questionnaire (on treatment adherence, SarsCoV2-related personal, familial and social data) and treatment data.ResultsA total of 1038 patients (2472 IVI, 1231 eyes) and 818 questionnaires were evaluated. Longer duration of therapy, lower visual acuity (VA) of the treated and higher VA of the fellow untreated eye was were associated with a higher probability of visit cancellation. Every additional year of life posed a 2.6% lower risk of noncompliance. A COVID-19 infection in the family environment displayed a 5.5-fold chance of visit cancellation. Patients treated for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) had a 36% reduced risk of visit cancellation compared to patients with diabetic macular oedema (DME).ConclusionA long preceding treatment period, low VA of the treated eye, high VA of the untreated eye, COVID-19 in the family and DME were identified as risk factors for IVI visit cancellations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compliance to treatment might be improved in the future by taking these risk factors into account when scheduling patients for IVI during the exceptional circumstances of a pandemic.
| S-EPMC8743739 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and public health policies employed by the Thai government during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand. Based on the comprehensive epidemiological data, we reconstructed the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand using a stochastic modeling approach. Our stochastic model incorporated the effects of individual heterogeneity in infectiousness on disease transmission, which allows us to capture relevant features of superspreading events. We found that our model could accurately capture the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand. The model predicted that at the end of the first wave, the number of cumulative confirmed cases was 3091 (95%CI: 2782-3400). We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) during the first epidemic wave. We found that after implementing the nationwide interventions, the Rt in Thailand decreased from the peak value of 5.67 to a value below one in less than one month, indicating that the control measures employed by the Thai government during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave were effective. Finally, the effects of transmission heterogeneity and control measures on the likelihood of outbreak extinction were also investigated.
| S-EPMC8821624 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.
| S-EPMC7889876 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The non-medical policies implemented by many countries to "flatten the curve" during the COVID-19 outbreak has people stranded in their homes and some, out of their homes unable to return due to the disruptions in the mobility network. The availability of rich datasets (in our case, Facebook) has made it possible to study the mobility dynamics and spatial distribution of people during lockdown in Italy. Our interpretation is an effort to look deeper, describing the movements occurred during lockdown, including the territorial differences. We observe that, initially, tourists left the country and later Italians abroad managed to return, thereby, stabilising the population. With regards to internal mobility, the earliest affected regions see higher number of stationary users in the initial days of the outbreak while this is less significant for the central/southern regions until the decree for the official lockdown on the 9th of March 2020, due 2 days later. Just before lockdown, there was not a significant exodus of people from the North to the rest of the country, instead, relocation of people between cities and their urban belts, but not towards remote areas. This will be elaborated in conclusions shedding light on possible changes in future cities.
| S-EPMC7680615 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Social restrictions necessary to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) profoundly changed how we socialised, worked and, for students, attended classes. Interestingly, significant sleep pattern shifts occurred in the context of pandemic-related social restrictions. Whether age and chronotype influenced these sleep pattern changes remains poorly understood. In this pre-registered (https://osf.io/4a3fx), web-based study, United States residents reported, in one-time assessments, demographic information, self-reported chronotype using the reduced Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire, and pre-pandemic and pandemic first wave sleep timing using the Ultrashort Munich Chronotype Questionnaire. Participants reported sleep phase delays, reduced social jetlag (SJL) and reduced social sleep restriction (SSR) during the first wave of the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic. Pandemic-related changes in SJL and SSR varied with participants' age and self-reported chronotype. Young adults reported the greatest reductions in SJL and young adults and individuals with evening chronotypes reported the greatest reductions in SSR. We conclude that these groups may have been the most vulnerable to social-biological sleep timing desynchrony under pre-pandemic social, occupational, and educational schedules.
| S-EPMC8646670 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi emerged amidst widespread anti-government demonstrations and subsequent mass gatherings. This paper describes the incidence and factors associated with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi.MethodologyThis was a retrospective study of public data analysing geopolitical and immigration activities that occurred between 02 April and 08 September 2020. The Chi-square test of independence was used to tabulate sex and age-related fatality ratios among deaths due to COVID-19-related complications.ResultsThe drivers for COVID-19 spread were mass gatherings secondary to the country's political landscape and repatriation of citizens from high-risk areas coupled with minimum use of public health interventions. The prevalence was higher in people aged 50-59 years, males and in urban areas. Men had an increased risk of COVID-19-related deaths (Case Fatality Ratio: 1.58 (95% CI 1.11-2.22) compared with women. Furthermore, men and women aged ≥40 years were 16.1 times and 7.1 times more likely to die of COVID-related complications, respectively. Men aged ≥40 years had a 62% increased risk of deaths compared with women of the same age group.ConclusionMass political gatherings and cross-border immigration from high-risk areas were drivers for infection. Males, older age and urban residence were associated with increased COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. To control the spread of COVID-19 there is a need to regulate mass gatherings and repatriation of citizens, and strengthen the use of preventive health interventions. Men, the older age groups and urban areas should be prioritised for COVID-19 prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC8751974 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Given the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread through cryptic transmission in January and February, setting the stage for the epidemic wave experienced in March and April, 2020. We use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the global dynamic underlying the establishment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and the United States (US). The model is calibrated on international case introductions at the early stage of the pandemic. We find that widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was likely in several areas of Europe and the US by January 2020, and estimate that by early March, only 1 - 3 in 100 SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected by surveillance systems. Modeling results indicate international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 with possible importation and transmission events as early as December, 2019. We characterize the resulting heterogeneous spatio-temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the burden of the first COVID-19 wave (February-July 2020). We estimate infection attack rates ranging from 0.78%-15.2% in the US and 0.19%-13.2% in Europe. The spatial modeling of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and spreading provides insights into the design of innovative, model-driven surveillance systems and preparedness plans that have a broader initial capacity and indication for testing.
| S-EPMC8010777 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo examine whether the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths and the share of deaths in nursing homes changed in the second versus the first pandemic wave.Eligible dataWe considered all countries that had at least 4000 COVID-19 deaths occurring as of January 14, 2021, at least 200 COVID-19 deaths occurring in each of the two epidemic wave periods; and which had sufficiently detailed information available on the age distribution of these deaths. We also considered countries with data available on COVID-19 deaths of nursing home residents for the two waves.Main outcome measuresChange in the second wave versus the first wave in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in people <50 years ("young deaths") among all COVID-19 deaths and among COVID-19 deaths in people <70 years old; and change in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents among all COVID-19 deaths.ResultsData on age distribution were available for 14 eligible countries. Individuals <50 years old had small absolute difference in their share of the total COVID-19 deaths in the two waves across 13 high-income countries (absolute differences 0.0-0.4%). Their proportion was higher in Ukraine, but it decreased markedly in the second wave. The proportion of young deaths was lower in the second versus the first wave (summary prevalence ratio 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.92) with large between-country heterogeneity. The proportion of young deaths among deaths <70 years did not differ significantly across the two waves (summary prevalence ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.86-1.06). Eligible data on nursing home COVID-19 deaths were available for 11 countries. The share of COVID-19 deaths that were accounted by nursing home residents decreased in the second wave significantly and substantially in 8 countries (prevalence ratio estimates: 0.36 to 0.78), remained the same in Denmark and Norway and markedly increased in Australia.ConclusionsIn the examined countries, age distribution of COVID-19 deaths has been fairly similar in the second versus the first wave, but the contribution of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents to total fatalities has decreased in most countries in the second wave.
| S-EPMC7875012 | biostudies-literature