Age-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 in Ontario with human mobility during pandemic's first wave.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Fields R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8419869 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Background: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value. Methods: Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions. Our fitted model captures spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in the first phase of the epidemic to a fine geographical scale. Results: We find that lockdown restrictions reduced transmission rates down to an estimated 12\% of its pre-lockdown rate. We show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not. However, poor health associated with deprivation has a considerable association with mortality; the Council Area (CA) with the greatest health-related deprivation was found to have a mortality rate 2.45 times greater than the CA with the lowest health-related deprivation considering all deaths occurring outside of carehomes. Conclusions: We find that in even an early epidemic with poor case ascertainment, a useful spatially explicit model can be fit with meaningful parameters based on the spatio-temporal distribution of death counts. Our simple approach is useful to strategically examine trade-offs between travel related restrictions and physical distancing, and the effect of deprivation-related factors on outcomes.
| S-EPMC9274017 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries introduced temporary visiting restrictions on the relatives of acute care hospital patients, whether or not they were infected with SARS-CoV-2. This affected relatives' psychological and emotional states and how closely they could be involved in their loved one's hospitalization.Study aimsInvestigate relatives' experiences of visiting restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic's first wave and the support offered by Valais Hospital's healthcare staff.MethodsRelatives and patients who had been discharged between February 28 and May 13, 2020, were asked to complete a patient-reported experience measures (PREMs) questionnaire, whether or not they had been infected by SARS-CoV-2. Relatives were asked about how visiting restrictions had affected them, their perceptions of the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, the quality of communication concerning their loved ones' health status during their hospitalization, and the information received from healthcare staff. Descriptive and inferential statistics were computed.ResultsOf 866 PREMs questionnaires returned, 818 were analyzable, and 543 relatives had experienced visiting restrictions to their loved ones: 92 relatives (87%) of COVID-19 patients and 451 relatives (66%) of non-infected patients, with heterogenous effects on their psychological and affective status. Overall, whether or not relatives were subjected to visiting restrictions, they perceived themselves to be well treated, well informed, and that communication with hospital healthcare staff was satisfactory. However, relatives subjected to visiting restrictions reported significantly lower scores on the quality of communication than other relatives. The relatives of patients in gynecology/obstetrics and internal medicine wards were significantly more affected by visiting restrictions than were the relatives of patients in other wards. Numerous relatives subjected to visiting restrictions reported regular communication with their loved ones or with healthcare staff, at least once a day (n = 179), either via videoconferences using FaceTime®, WhatsApp®, Zoom®, or Skype® or via mobile phone text messages.ConclusionVisiting restrictions affected relatives differently depending on the wards their loved ones were hospitalized. Healthcare institutions should investigate the utility of visiting restrictions on patients, how they affect relatives, and how to improve personalized patient-relative communications. Future research should attempt to develop reliable, validated measurement instruments of relatives' experiences of acute-care visiting restrictions during pandemics.
| S-EPMC10510254 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic's first wave required considerable adaptation efforts on the part of healthcare workers. The literature on resilient healthcare describes how the collective regulation strategies implemented by frontline employees make essential contributions to institutions' abilities to cope with major crises. The present mixed-methodology study was thus conducted among a large sample of employees in a variety of Swiss healthcare institutions and focused on problematic real-world situations experienced by them and their managers during the pandemic's first wave. It highlighted the anticipatory and adaptive strategies implemented by institutions, teams and individuals. The most frequently cited problematic situations involved organisational changes, interpersonal conflicts and workloads. In addition to the numerous top-down measures implemented by institutions, respondents also identified personal or team regulation strategies such as increasing staff flexibility, prioritising tasks, interprofessional collaboration, peer support or creating new communication channels to families. The present findings underlined the importance of taking greater account of healthcare support staff and strengthening managerial capacity to support interprofessional teams including those support staff.
| S-EPMC8545718 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally1-7. Although a limited number of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were reported in January and February 2020 (refs.8,9), the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, combined with a slow growth in testing capacity and porous travel screening10, left many countries vulnerable to unmitigated, cryptic transmission. Here we use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the early dispersal of infections and the temporal windows of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 and onset of local transmission in Europe and the USA. We find that community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was likely to have been present in several areas of Europe and the USA by January 2020, and estimate that by early March, only 1 to 4 in 100 SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected by surveillance systems. The modelling results highlight international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, with possible introductions and transmission events as early as December 2019 to January 2020. We find a heterogeneous geographic distribution of cumulative infection attack rates by 4 July 2020, ranging from 0.78% to 15.2% across US states and 0.19% to 13.2% in European countries. Our approach complements phylogenetic analyses and other surveillance approaches and provides insights that can be used to design innovative, model-driven surveillance systems that guide enhanced testing and response strategies.
| S-EPMC8636257 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThis study aims to evaluate the impact of the first coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) wave in 2020 on patients scheduled for intravitreal injections (IVI) in a German metropolitan region.MethodsWe performed a multicentre prospective survey and retrospective analysis of the records of patients treated with intravitreal injections during the 20-week period from March to July 2020 in all four hospital eye departments in the city of Hamburg using a questionnaire (on treatment adherence, SarsCoV2-related personal, familial and social data) and treatment data.ResultsA total of 1038 patients (2472 IVI, 1231 eyes) and 818 questionnaires were evaluated. Longer duration of therapy, lower visual acuity (VA) of the treated and higher VA of the fellow untreated eye was were associated with a higher probability of visit cancellation. Every additional year of life posed a 2.6% lower risk of noncompliance. A COVID-19 infection in the family environment displayed a 5.5-fold chance of visit cancellation. Patients treated for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) had a 36% reduced risk of visit cancellation compared to patients with diabetic macular oedema (DME).ConclusionA long preceding treatment period, low VA of the treated eye, high VA of the untreated eye, COVID-19 in the family and DME were identified as risk factors for IVI visit cancellations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compliance to treatment might be improved in the future by taking these risk factors into account when scheduling patients for IVI during the exceptional circumstances of a pandemic.
| S-EPMC8743739 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and public health policies employed by the Thai government during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand. Based on the comprehensive epidemiological data, we reconstructed the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand using a stochastic modeling approach. Our stochastic model incorporated the effects of individual heterogeneity in infectiousness on disease transmission, which allows us to capture relevant features of superspreading events. We found that our model could accurately capture the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand. The model predicted that at the end of the first wave, the number of cumulative confirmed cases was 3091 (95%CI: 2782-3400). We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) during the first epidemic wave. We found that after implementing the nationwide interventions, the Rt in Thailand decreased from the peak value of 5.67 to a value below one in less than one month, indicating that the control measures employed by the Thai government during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave were effective. Finally, the effects of transmission heterogeneity and control measures on the likelihood of outbreak extinction were also investigated.
| S-EPMC8821624 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.
| S-EPMC7889876 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID19 pandemic had a huge impact on global mental health. Health students, because of their age and status, are a more at-risk population. National survey during the first wave already found high levels of psychological distress.ObjectiveThis nationwide study aimed to assess health's student mental health during the third wave in France.MethodsWe did an online national cross-sectional study, which addressed all health students from April 4th to May 11th 2021. The questionnaire included sociodemographic and work conditions questions, Kessler 6 scale, and numeric scales.Results16,937 students answered, including 54% nurse and 16% medical students. Regarding K6 scale, 14% have moderate (8-12) and 83% high (≥13) level of psychological distress. In multivariate analysis, being a man (OR = 0.54, 95% CI [0.48; 0.60], p < 0.001) and not living alone (OR = 0.71, 95% CI [0.62; 0.82], p < 0.001), are associated with a reduced risk of psychological distress. Not having the ability to isolate themselves (OR = 1.58, 95% CI [1.39; 1.81], p < 0.001), and having low (OR = 2.31, 95% CI [2.08; 2.56], p < 0.001) or important (OR = 4.58, 95% CI [3.98; 5.29], p < 0.001) financial difficulties are associated with an increased risk of psychological distress.LimitationsThe response rate was low regarding the target population (300,000 health students).ConclusionCompared to the first national survey, we noticed mental health deterioration. Psychological distress (83% high level versus 21%), substance use (21% versus 13%), and psychotropic treatment use (18% versus 7.3%) hugely increased. These results highlighted the need to increase support actions for health students.
| S-EPMC9116964 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionHuman mobility was considerably reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. To support disease surveillance, it is important to understand the effect of mobility on transmission.AimWe compared the role of mobility during the first and second COVID-19 wave in Switzerland by studying the link between daily travel distances and the effective reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2.MethodsWe used aggregated mobile phone data from a representative panel survey of the Swiss population to measure human mobility. We estimated the effects of reductions in daily travel distance on Rt via a regression model. We compared mobility effects between the first (2 March-7 April 2020) and second wave (1 October-10 December 2020).ResultsDaily travel distances decreased by 73% in the first and by 44% in the second wave (relative to February 2020). For a 1% reduction in average daily travel distance, Rt was estimated to decline by 0.73% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.34-1.03) in the first wave and by 1.04% (95% CrI: 0.66-1.42) in the second wave. The estimated mobility effects were similar in both waves for all modes of transport, travel purposes and sociodemographic subgroups but differed for movement radius.ConclusionMobility was associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt during the first two epidemic waves in Switzerland. The relative effect of mobility was similar in both waves, but smaller mobility reductions in the second wave corresponded to smaller overall reductions in Rt. Mobility data from mobile phones have a continued potential to support real-time surveillance of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8915405 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The non-medical policies implemented by many countries to "flatten the curve" during the COVID-19 outbreak has people stranded in their homes and some, out of their homes unable to return due to the disruptions in the mobility network. The availability of rich datasets (in our case, Facebook) has made it possible to study the mobility dynamics and spatial distribution of people during lockdown in Italy. Our interpretation is an effort to look deeper, describing the movements occurred during lockdown, including the territorial differences. We observe that, initially, tourists left the country and later Italians abroad managed to return, thereby, stabilising the population. With regards to internal mobility, the earliest affected regions see higher number of stationary users in the initial days of the outbreak while this is less significant for the central/southern regions until the decree for the official lockdown on the 9th of March 2020, due 2 days later. Just before lockdown, there was not a significant exodus of people from the North to the rest of the country, instead, relocation of people between cities and their urban belts, but not towards remote areas. This will be elaborated in conclusions shedding light on possible changes in future cities.
| S-EPMC7680615 | biostudies-literature