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A chemical engineer's take of COVID-19 epidemiology.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus spreading worldwide, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization 3 months after the outbreak. Termed as COVID-19, airborne or surface transmission occurs as droplets/aerosols and seems to be reduced by social distancing and wearing mask. Demographic and geo-temporal factors like population density, temperature, healthcare system efficiency index and lockdown stringency index also influence the COVID-19 epidemiological curve. In the present study, an attempt is made to relate these factors with curve characteristics (mean and variance) using the classical residence time distribution analysis. An analogy is drawn between the continuous stirred tank reactor and infection in a given country. The 435 days dataset for 15 countries, where the first wave of epidemic is almost ending, have been considered in this study. Using method of moments technique, dispersion coefficient has been calculated. Regression analysis has been conducted to relate parameters with the curve characteristics.

SUBMITTER: Nikita S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8420451 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A chemical engineer's take of COVID-19 epidemiology.

Nikita Saxena S Raman Ruchir R Rathore Anurag S AS

AIChE journal. American Institute of Chemical Engineers 20210705 9

SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus spreading worldwide, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization 3 months after the outbreak. Termed as COVID-19, airborne or surface transmission occurs as droplets/aerosols and seems to be reduced by social distancing and wearing mask. Demographic and geo-temporal factors like population density, temperature, healthcare system efficiency index and lockdown stringency index also influence the COVID-19 epidemiological curve. In the present study, an a ...[more]

PMID: 34511626

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Project description:The economic and humanistic impact of COVID-19 pandemic is enormous globally. No definitive treatment exists, hence accelerated development and approval of COVID-19 vaccines, offers a unique opportunity for COVID-19 prevention and control. Vaccine hesitancy may limit the success of vaccine distribution in Africa, therefore we assessed the potentials for coronavirus vaccine hesitancy and its determinants among Africans. An online cross-sectional African-wide survey was administered in Arabic, English, and French languages. Questions on demographics, self-reported health status, vaccine literacy, knowledge and perception on vaccines, past experience, behavior, infection risk, willingness to receive and affordability of the SARS-COV-2 vaccine were asked. Data were subjected to descriptive and inferential statistics. A total of 5,416 individuals completed the survey. Approximately, 94% were residents of 34 African countries while the other Africans live in the Diaspora. Only 63% of all participants surveyed were willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccination as soon as possible and 79% were worried about its side effects. Thirty-nine percent expressed concerns of vaccine-associated infection. The odds of vaccine hesitancy was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.30) among those who believed their risk of infection was very high, compared to those who believed otherwise. The odds of vaccine hesitancy was one-fifth (OR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.28) among those who believed their risk of falling sick was very high, compared to those who believed their risk of falling very sick was very low. The OR of vaccine hesitancy was 2.72 (95% CI: 2.24, 3.31) among those who have previously refused a vaccine for themselves or their child compared to counterparts with no self-reported history of vaccine hesitancy. Participants want the vaccines to be mandatory (40%), provided free of charge (78%) and distributed in homes and offices (44%). COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is substantial among Africans based on perceived risk of coronavirus infection and past experiences.

Project description:BackgroundWidespread vaccination coverage is essential for reducing the COVID-19 havoc and regarded as a crucial tool in restoring normal life on university campuses. Therefore, our research aimed to understand the intention to be vaccinated for COVID-19 among Pakistani university students.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted in five administrative units of Pakistan, i.e., Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We obtained data from 2,865 university students between 17th January and 2nd February, 2021, using a semi-structured and self-administered questionnaire. We used Stata (version 16.1, StataCorp LLC) for data management and analysis.ResultsThe majority (72.5%) of our respondents were willing to take COVID-19 vaccine. The current level of education had a statistically significant relationship with the intention to be vaccinated (p < 0.05). Respondents answered 11 questions encompassing five different domains of the Health Belief Model (HBM). All the items of HBM were significantly associated with the positive intention towards receiving the vaccine (p < 0.05). We conducted a multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the relative contribution of different factors towards the intention to receive COVID-19 vaccine. Multiple factors such as belief that vaccination should be mandatory for everyone (AOR: 3.99, 95% CI: 3.20-4.98) and willingness to take vaccine even if it is not free (AOR: 3.91, 95% CI: 3.18-4.81) were observed to be associated with high odds of showing willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19.ConclusionMost of our study participants intended to take vaccines based on their belief regarding the high effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine. But as rumor-mongers are generating and spreading conspiracy theories daily, the health department and policymakers need to undertake evidence-based campaigns through electronic and social media to ensure expected countrywide vaccination coverage. In this case, our study findings can serve as a foundation for them to ensure mass vaccination coverage among university students, which is crucial now to reopen the dormitories and restore everyday life on campuses.

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A chemical engineer's take of COVID-19 epidemiology.

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A chemical engineer's take of COVID-19 epidemiology.

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