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Plasma-metabolite-based machine learning is a promising diagnostic approach for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma investigation

ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to develop a diagnostic strategy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) that combines plasma metabolomics with machine learning algorithms. Plasma-based untargeted metabolomics analysis was performed with samples derived from 88 ESCC patients and 52 healthy controls. The dataset was split into a training set and a test set. After identification of differential metabolites in training set, single-metabolite-based receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and multiple-metabolite-based machine learning models were used to distinguish between ESCC patients and healthy controls. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were performed to investigate the prognostic significance of the plasma metabolites. Finally, twelve differential plasma metabolites (six up-regulated and six down-regulated) were annotated. The predictive performance of the six most prevalent diagnostic metabolites through the diagnostic models in the test set were as follows: arachidonic acid (accuracy: 0.887), sebacic acid (accuracy: 0.867), indoxyl sulfate (accuracy: 0.850), phosphatidylcholine (PC) (14:0/0:0) (accuracy: 0.825), deoxycholic acid (accuracy: 0.773), and trimethylamine N-oxide (accuracy: 0.653). The prediction accuracies of the machine learning models in the test set were partial least-square (accuracy: 0.947), random forest (accuracy: 0.947), gradient boosting machine (accuracy: 0.960), and support vector machine (accuracy: 0.980). Additionally, survival analysis demonstrated that acetoacetic acid was an unfavorable prognostic factor (hazard ratio (HR): 1.752), while PC (14:0/0:0) (HR: 0.577) was a favorable prognostic factor for ESCC. This study devised an innovative strategy for ESCC diagnosis by combining plasma metabolomics with machine learning algorithms and revealed its potential to become a novel screening test for ESCC. Highlights • Six most prevalent diagnostic plasma metabolites were identified in ESCC.• Plasma-metabolite-based machine learning models (PLS, RF, GBM, and SVM) for ESCC diagnosis.• Acetoacetic acid was an unfavorable prognostic factor, while PC (14:0/0:0) was a favorable prognostic factor for ESCC.

SUBMITTER: Chen Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8424362 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundA plethora of prognostic biomarkers for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) that have hitherto been reported are challenged with low reproducibility due to high molecular heterogeneity of ESCC. The purpose of this study was to identify the optimal biomarkers for ESCC using machine learning algorithms.MethodsBiomarkers related to clinical survival, recurrence or therapeutic response of patients with ESCC were determined through literature database searching. Forty-eight biomarkers linked to recurrence or prognosis of ESCC were used to construct a molecular interaction network based on NetBox and then to identify the functional modules. Publicably available mRNA transcriptome data of ESCC downloaded from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets included GSE53625 and TCGA-ESCC. Five machine learning algorithms, including logical regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF) and XGBoost, were used to develop classifiers for prognostic classification for feature selection. The area under ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the prognostic classifiers. The importances of identified molecules were ranked by their occurrence frequencies in the prognostic classifiers. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank test were performed to determine the statistical significance of overall survival.ResultsA total of 48 clinically proven molecules associated with ESCC progression were used to construct a molecular interaction network with 3 functional modules comprising 17 component molecules. The 131,071 prognostic classifiers using these 17 molecules were built for each machine learning algorithm. Using the occurrence frequencies in the prognostic classifiers with AUCs greater than the mean value of all 131,071 AUCs to rank importances of these 17 molecules, stratifin encoded by SFN was identified as the optimal prognostic biomarker for ESCC, whose performance was further validated in another 2 independent cohorts.ConclusionThe occurrence frequencies across various feature selection approaches reflect the degree of clinical importance and stratifin is an optimal prognostic biomarker for ESCC.

Project description:BackgroundEarly and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is essential for disease management and therapeutic choices that can delay disease progression. Machine learning (ML) approaches have been extensively used in attempts to develop algorithms for reliable early diagnosis of AD, although clinical usefulness, interpretability, and generalizability of the classifiers across datasets and MRI protocols remain limited.MethodsWe report a multi-diagnostic and generalizable approach for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD diagnosis using structural MRI and ML. Classifiers were trained and tested using subjects from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (n = 570) and the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) project database (n = 531). Several classifiers are compared and combined using voting for a decision. Additionally, we report tests of generalizability across datasets and protocols (IR-SPGR and MPRAGE), the impact of using graph theory measures on diagnostic classification performance, the relative importance of different brain regions on classification for better interpretability, and an evaluation of the potential for clinical applicability of the classifier.ResultsOur "healthy controls (HC) vs. AD" classifier trained and tested on the combination of ADNI and OASIS datasets obtained a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 90.6% and a Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.811. Our "HC vs. MCI vs. AD" classifier trained and tested on the ADNI dataset obtained a 62.1% BAC (33.3% being the by-chance cut-off) and 0.438 MCC. Hippocampal features were the strongest contributors to the classification decisions (approx. 25-45%), followed by temporal (approx. 13%), cingulate, and frontal regions (approx. 8-13% each), which is consistent with our current understanding of AD and its progression. Classifiers generalized well across both datasets and protocols. Finally, using graph theory measures did not improve classification performance.ConclusionsIn sum, we present a diagnostic tool for MCI and AD trained using baseline scans and a follow-up diagnosis regardless of progression, which is multi-diagnostic, generalizable across independent data sources and acquisition protocols, and with transparently reported performance. Rated as potentially clinically applicable, our tool may be clinically useful to inform diagnostic decisions in dementia, if successful in real-world prospective clinical trials.

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Plasma-metabolite-based machine learning is a promising diagnostic approach for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma investigation

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