Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bradley J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8425362 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We investigate the short-term effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows and how they are mediated by labor market policy. Using Italian administrative data on a sample of active contracts between 2009 and the second quarter of 2020, we show that, before the pandemic, a higher share of female compared to male, young compared to old and low educated compared to high educated workers is employed in non-essential activities. When we look at the change in hirings and separations, from the 9th week of 2020 - the time when first cases and deaths due to COVID-19 were recorded -, we find a pronounced drop in hirings and endings of fixed-term contracts. Layoffs and quits increase after the 9th week, and then decline significantly, reflecting the effects of government intervention. The lifting of the lockdown triggers a slow recovery of labor market flows. Young workers, those on temporary contracts, low-educated workers, those employed in the South and those with no opportunities of working from home experience a greater decline in separation probability, indicating that government policy partly protected them from the labor market impact of the recession. The decline in the separation probability for women is lower than that for men.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09522-610.1007/s10888-021-09522-6.
| S-EPMC8940582 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The speed of the economic downturn in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic has been exceptional, causing mass layoffs-in Germany up to 30% of the workforce in some industries. Economic rationale suggests that the decision on which workers are fired should depend on productivity-related individual factors. However, from hiring situations we know that discrimination-i.e., decisions driven by characteristics unrelated to productivity-is widespread in Western labor markets. Drawing on representative survey data on forced layoffs and short-time work collected in Germany between April and December 2020, this study highlights that discrimination against immigrants is also present in firing situations. The analysis shows that employees with a migration background are significantly more likely to lose their job than native workers when otherwise healthy firms are unexpectedly forced to let go of part of their workforce, while firms make more efforts to substitute firing with short-time working schemes for their native workers. Adjusting for detailed job-related characteristics shows that the findings are unlikely to be driven by systematic differences in productivity between migrants and natives. Moreover, using industry-specific variation in the extent of the economic downturn, I demonstrate that layoff probabilities hardly differ across the less affected industries, but that the gap between migrants and natives increases with the magnitude of the shock. In the hardest-hit industries, job loss probability among migrants is three times higher than among natives. This confirms the hypothesis that firing discrimination puts additional pressure on the immigrant workforce in times of crisis.
| S-EPMC8803145 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper examines whether the intensity of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has differentially impacted the public sector labor market outcomes. This extends the analysis of the already documented negative economic consequences of COVID-19 and their dissimilarities with a typical economic crisis. To capture the intensity of the NPIs, we build a novel index (COVINDEX) using daily information on NPIs merged with state-level data on out-of-home mobility (Google data). We show that among individuals living in a typical state, NPI enforcement during COVID-19 reduces the likelihood of being employed (at work) by 5% with respect to the pre-COVID period and the hours worked by 1.3% using data on labor market outcomes from the monthly Current Population Survey and difference-in-difference models. This is a sizable amount representing the sector with the higher job security during the pandemic. Public sector workers in a typical state are 4 percentage points more likely to be at work than salaried workers in the private sector and 7 percentage points more likely to be at work than self-employed workers (the worst so far). Our results are robust to the endogeneity of the NPI measures and present empirical evidence of heterogeneity in response to the NPIs, with those in local employment being the hardest hit.
| S-EPMC8251414 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper studies the labor market effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on the Nordic countries which showed one of the highest variations in NPIs despite having similar community spread of COVID-19 at the onset of the pandemic: While Denmark, Finland and Norway imposed strict measures ('lockdowns'), Sweden decided for much lighter restrictions. Empirically, we use novel administrative data on weekly new unemployment and furlough spells from all 56 regions of the Nordic countries to compare the labor market outcomes of Sweden with the ones of its neighbors. Our evidence suggests that the labor markets of all countries were severely hit by the pandemic, although Sweden performed slightly better than its neighbors. Specifically, we find the worsening of the Swedish labor market to occur around 2 to 3 weeks later than in the other Nordic countries, and that its cumulative sum of new unemployment and furlough spells remained significantly lower (about 20-25%) during the time period of our study (up to week 21 of 2020).
| S-EPMC8661996 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study questionHow many twins are born in human populations and how has this changed over recent decades?Summary answerSince the 1980s, the global twinning rate has increased by a third, from 9.1 to 12.0 twin deliveries per 1000 deliveries, to about 1.6 million twin pairs each year.What is known alreadyIt was already known that in the 1980s natural twinning rates were low in (East) Asia and South America, at an intermediate level in Europe and North America, and high in many African countries. It was also known that in recent decades, twinning rates have been increasing in the wealthier parts of our world as a result of the rise in medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and delayed childbearing.Study design, size, durationWe have brought together all information on national twinning rates available from statistical offices, demographic research institutes, individual survey data and the medical literature for the 1980-1985 and the 2010-2015 periods.Participants/materials, setting, methodsFor 165 countries, covering over 99% of the global population, we were able to collect or estimate twinning rates for the 2010-2015 period. For 112 countries, we were also able to obtain twinning rates for 1980-1985.Main results and the role of chanceSubstantial increases in twinning rates were observed in many countries in Europe, North America and Asia. For 74 out of 112 countries the increase was more than 10%. Africa is still the continent with highest twinning rates, but Europe, North America and Oceania are catching up rapidly. Asia and Africa are currently home to 80% of all twin deliveries in the world.Limitations, reasons for cautionFor some countries, data were derived from reports and papers based on hospital registrations which are less representative for the country as a whole than data based on public administrations and national surveys.Wider implications of the findingsThe absolute and relative number of twins for the world as a whole is peaking at an unprecedented level. An important reason for this is the tremendous increase in medically assisted reproduction in recent decades. This is highly relevant, as twin deliveries are associated with higher infant and child mortality rates and increased complications for mother and child during pregnancy and during and after delivery.Study funding/competing interest(s)The contribution of CM was partially supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant No 681546, FAMSIZEMATTERS), Nuffield College, and the Leverhulme Trust. The contribution of GP was partially supported by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (grant No ANR-18-CE36-0007-07). The authors declare no conflict of interest.Trial registration numberN/A.
| S-EPMC8129593 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the Twin Birth Study, women at 320/7-386/7 weeks of gestation, in whom the first twin was in cephalic presentation, were randomized to planned vaginal delivery or cesarean section. The study found no significant differences in neonatal or maternal outcomes in the two planned mode of delivery groups. We aimed to compare neonatal and maternal outcomes of twin gestations without spontaneous onset of labor, who underwent induction of labor or pre-labor cesarean section as the intervention of induction may affect outcomes.MethodsIn this secondary analysis of the Twin Birth Study we compared those who had an induction of labor with those who had a pre-labor cesarean section. The primary outcome was a composite of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity. Secondary outcome was a composite of maternal morbidity and mortality.Trial registrationNCT00187369.ResultsOf the 2804 women included in the Twin Birth Study, a total of 1347 (48%) women required a delivery before a spontaneous onset of labor occurred: 568 (42%) in the planned vaginal delivery arm and 779 (58%) in the planned cesarean arm. Induction of labor was attempted in 409 (30%), and 938 (70%) had a pre-labor cesarean section. The rate of intrapartum cesarean section in the induction of labor group was 41.3%. The rate of the primary outcome was comparable between the pre-labor cesarean section group and induction of labor group (1.65% vs. 1.97%; p = 0.61; OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.43-1.62). The maternal composite outcome was found to be lower with pre-labor cesarean section compared to induction of labor (7.25% vs. 11.25%; p = 0.01; OR 0.61; 95% CI 0.41-0.91).ConclusionIn women with twin gestation between 320/7-386/7 weeks of gestation, induction of labor and pre-labor cesarean section have similar neonatal outcomes. Pre-labor cesarean section is associated with favorable maternal outcomes which differs from the overall Twin Birth Study results. These data may be used to better counsel women with twin gestation who are faced with the decision of interventional delivery.
| S-EPMC7672925 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused unprecedented shocks to agricultural food systems, including increased risk to worker health, labor-related input costs, and production uncertainty. Despite employer precautions, there were numerous worksite outbreaks of COVID-19. This paper examines the relationship between month-to-month variation in historical agricultural employment and changes in the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths within U.S. counties from April to August 2020. The results show that employment of 100 additional workers in fruit, vegetable, and horticultural production was associated with 4.5% more COVID-19 cases within counties or an additional 18.65 COVID-19 cases and 0.34 additional COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 individuals in the county workforce.
| S-EPMC8646853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe present study aims to investigate the association between educational qualification and early labor market exit among men and to examine the contribution of labor market marginalization measured across the working life on this association.MethodA register-linked cohort study was conducted including men who completed military service in 1969/70 (born between 1949 and 1951) and were alive at age 55 and not disability pension beneficiaries (n = 40 761). Information on the highest level of educational qualification and the outcome of early exit (disability pension, sickness absence, unemployment, and early old-age pension) was obtained from Swedish nationwide registers between the ages of 55 and 64 years. Labor market marginalization was defined as periods of long-term unemployment and sickness absence over the working life and up to follow-up. Cox regression analyses were used to obtain hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsLow-educated men were more likely to leave the labor force early due to disability pension or sickness absence (HR: 2.48), unemployment (HR: 2.09), and early old-age pension with- (HR:1.25) and without -income (HR: 1.58). Labor market marginalization across the working life explained a large part of the association for the more involuntary early exit routes (disability pensions, sickness absence, unemployment) and explained very little with regards to the more voluntary early exit routes (early old-age pension with and without income).ConclusionExposure to labor market marginalization across the working life was important in explaining educational differences in early labor market exit due to disability pension or sickness absence and unemployment. This study underscores the importance of identifying and implementing preventive measures in the workplace (e.g. adaptions) to prevent new spells of sickness absence and unemployment, especially among low educated individuals.
| S-EPMC9121573 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Do minimum wages and the earned income tax credit (EITC) mitigate rising "deaths of despair?" We leverage state variation in these policies over time to estimate event study and difference-in-differences models of deaths due to drug overdose, suicide, and alcohol-related causes. Our causal models find no significant effects on drug or alcohol-related mortality, but do find significant reductions in non-drug suicides. A 10 percent minimum wage increase reduces non-drug suicides among low-educated adults by 2.7 percent, and the comparable EITC figure is 3.0 percent. Placebo tests and event-study models support our causal research design. Increasing both policies by 10 percent would likely prevent a combined total of more than 700 suicides each year.
| S-EPMC8403492 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This article analyzes cross-country data encompassing 130 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019 to investigate the correlation between financial crises, labor market frictions, and economic volatility. The empirical findings demonstrate that financial crises have a milder impact on real gross domestic product (GDP) in developing countries with flexible labor markets. This trend also applies to non-eurozone developed countries, where labor market flexibility aids crisis mitigation. However, this pattern doesn't hold for eurozone countries. Further examination of developing nations reveals that those with heightened labor market flexibility tend to experience reduced adverse effects on non-tradable sectors, thereby mitigating the impact on real GDP.
| S-EPMC10538789 | biostudies-literature