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Regional COVID-19 Dynamics: Surrogate Synchrony in Case Infection Rates

ABSTRACT: As many jurisdictions consider in-person learning strategies (including at Institutions of Higher Education, IHE), implementing travel restrictions or quarantines, and/or establishing interstate pacts to reduce COVID-19 spread, this study explores the degree to which COVID-19 case infection rates in a group of neighboring, Southern and Midwestern U.S. states (namely, Arkansas and its contiguous neighbors) are patterned in a non-random way known as synchrony. Utilizing surrogate synchrony (SUSY) to estimate the dyadic coupling between the COVID-19 case infection rate processes in this region from March to December 2020, results indicate that significant synchrony is present between Arkansas and three of its neighbors. The highest level of instantaneous synchrony occurs between Arkansas and Tennessee, with the next highest level occurring between Arkansas and Missouri. There is evidence of directionality in the synchrony, indicating that Arkansas case infection rates lead Mississippi while rates in Missouri and Tennessee lead Arkansas. The lagged cross-correlations suggest the greatest synchrony to occur between 3 and 6 days. To explore the effect of IHE reopening on COVID-19, synchrony is compared between pre- and post-reopening windows. Results suggested that, following reopening, there are gains in detectable synchrony and that COVID-19 is in-flowing to Arkansas from all of its neighboring states. Taken together, results suggest that there is spatiality to COVID-19 with neighboring states having case infection rates that are significantly synchronous at a lag time that would be expected based on symptom onset. This synchrony is potentially strengthened by the in-flow and cross-border movement of IHE students.

SUBMITTER: Robinson S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8426435 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The analysis of systematically collected data for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infectivity and death rates has revealed, in many countries around the world, a typical oscillatory pattern with a 7-day (circaseptan) period. Additionally, in some countries, 3.5-day (hemicircaseptan) and 14-day periodicities have also been observed. Interestingly, the 7-day infectivity and death rate oscillations are almost in phase, showing local maxima on Thursdays/Fridays and local minima on Sundays/Mondays. These observations are in stark contrast to a known pattern correlating the death rate with the reduced medical staff in hospitals on the weekends. While we cannot exclude the possibility that a significant portion of the observed oscillations is associated with the reporting of the individual cases, other reasons might contribute at least partly to these data. One possible hypothesis addressing these observations is that they reflect gradually increasing stress with the progressing week, which can trigger the higher death rates on Thursdays/Fridays. Moreover, assuming the weekends provide the likely time for new infections, the maximum number of new cases might fall, again, on Thursdays/Fridays. These observations deserve further study to provide a better understanding of COVID-19 dynamics.IMPORTANCE The infectivity and death rates for COVID-19 have been observed in many countries around the world as well as in the collective data of the whole world. These oscillations show distinct circaseptan periodicity, which could be associated with numerous biological reasons as well as with improper reporting of the data collected. Since very different results are observed in different countries and even continents, such as Sweden (very significant oscillations) or India (almost no oscillations), these data provide a very important message about different conditions under which the disease is spread or is reported, which, in turn, could serve as guidance tools in future epidemics. It is necessary that follow-up studies track the observed differences and fully reliably address their origins.

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Regional COVID-19 Dynamics: Surrogate Synchrony in Case Infection Rates

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