Dataset Information

Investigating the relationship between reopening the economy and implementing control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an enormous burden on population health and the economy around the world. Although most cities in the United States have reopened their economies from previous lockdowns, it was not clear how the magnitude of different control measures-such as face mask use and social distancing-may affect the timing of reopening the economy for a local region. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between reopening dates and control measures and identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely.

Study design

This was a mathematical modeling study.

Methods

We developed a dynamic compartment model to capture the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in New York City. We estimated model parameters from local COVID-19 data. We conducted three sets of policy simulations to investigate how different reopening dates and magnitudes of control measures would affect the COVID-19 epidemic.

Results

The model estimated that maintaining social contact at 80% of the prepandemic level and a 50% face mask usage would prevent a major surge of COVID-19 after reopening. If social distancing were completely relaxed after reopening, face mask usage would need to be maintained at nearly 80% to prevent a major surge.

Conclusions

Adherence to social distancing and increased face mask usage are keys to prevent a major surge after a city reopens its economy. The findings from our study can help policymakers identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely.

SUBMITTER: Zu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8433041 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundIn the current COVID-19 pandemic, aggressive Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) measures have been adopted to prevent health care-associated transmission of COVID-19. We evaluated the impact of a multimodal IPC strategy originally designed for the containment of COVID-19 on the rates of other hospital-acquired-infections (HAIs).MethodologyFrom February-August 2020, a multimodal IPC strategy was implemented across a large health care campus in Singapore, comprising improved segregation of patients with respiratory symptoms, universal masking and heightened adherence to Standard Precautions. The following rates of HAI were compared pre- and postpandemic: health care-associated respiratory-viral-infection (HA-RVI), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and CP-CRE acquisition rates, health care-facility-associated C difficile infections and device-associated HAIs.ResultsEnhanced IPC measures introduced to contain COVID-19 had the unintended positive consequence of containing HA-RVI. The cumulative incidence of HA-RVI decreased from 9.69 cases per 10,000 patient-days to 0.83 cases per 10,000 patient-days (incidence-rate-ratio = 0.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05-0.13, P< .05). Hospital-wide MRSA acquisition rates declined significantly during the pandemic (incidence-rate-ratio = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.46-0.64, P< .05), together with central-line-associated-bloodstream infection rates (incidence-rate-ratio = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.07-0.57, P< .05); likely due to increased compliance with Standard Precautions. Despite the disruption caused by the pandemic, there was no increase in CP-CRE acquisition, and rates of other HAIs remained stable.ConclusionsMultimodal IPC strategies can be implemented at scale to successfully mitigate health care-associated transmission of RVIs. Good adherence to personal-protective-equipment and hand hygiene kept other HAI rates stable even during an ongoing pandemic where respiratory infections were prioritized for interventions.

Project description:ObjectivesTo comprehensively map the existing evidence assessing the impact of travel-related control measures for containment of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic.DesignRapid evidence map.Data sourcesMEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science, and COVID-19 specific databases offered by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the WHO.Eligibility criteriaWe included studies in human populations susceptible to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19, SARS-CoV-1/severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus/Middle East respiratory syndrome or influenza. Interventions of interest were travel-related control measures affecting travel across national or subnational borders. Outcomes of interest included infectious disease, screening, other health, economic and social outcomes. We considered all empirical studies that quantitatively evaluate impact available in Armenian, English, French, German, Italian and Russian based on the team's language capacities.Data extraction and synthesisWe extracted data from included studies in a standardised manner and mapped them to a priori and (one) post hoc defined categories.ResultsWe included 122 studies assessing travel-related control measures. These studies were undertaken across the globe, most in the Western Pacific region (n=71). A large proportion of studies focused on COVID-19 (n=59), but a number of studies also examined SARS, MERS and influenza. We identified studies on border closures (n=3), entry/exit screening (n=31), travel-related quarantine (n=6), travel bans (n=8) and travel restrictions (n=25). Many addressed a bundle of travel-related control measures (n=49). Most studies assessed infectious disease (n=98) and/or screening-related (n=25) outcomes; we found only limited evidence on economic and social outcomes. Studies applied numerous methods, both inferential and descriptive in nature, ranging from simple observational methods to complex modelling techniques.ConclusionsWe identified a heterogeneous and complex evidence base on travel-related control measures. While this map is not sufficient to assess the effectiveness of different measures, it outlines aspects regarding interventions and outcomes, as well as study methodology and reporting that could inform future research and evidence synthesis.