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Why are we vaccinating children against COVID-19?

ABSTRACT: This article examines issues related to COVID-19 inoculations for children. The bulk of the official COVID-19-attributed deaths per capita occur in the elderly with high comorbidities, and the COVID-19 attributed deaths per capita are negligible in children. The bulk of the normalized post-inoculation deaths also occur in the elderly with high comorbidities, while the normalized post-inoculation deaths are small, but not negligible, in children. Clinical trials for these inoculations were very short-term (a few months), had samples not representative of the total population, and for adolescents/children, had poor predictive power because of their small size. Further, the clinical trials did not address changes in biomarkers that could serve as early warning indicators of elevated predisposition to serious diseases. Most importantly, the clinical trials did not address long-term effects that, if serious, would be borne by children/adolescents for potentially decades. A novel best-case scenario cost-benefit analysis showed very conservatively that there are five times the number of deaths attributable to each inoculation vs those attributable to COVID-19 in the most vulnerable 65+ demographic. The risk of death from COVID-19 decreases drastically as age decreases, and the longer-term effects of the inoculations on lower age groups will increase their risk-benefit ratio, perhaps substantially.

SUBMITTER: Kostoff RN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8437699 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:With the recent licensure of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 in the 5- to 11-year-old age group, the public health impact of a childhood immunization campaign is of interest. Using a mathematical epidemiological model, we project that childhood vaccination carries minimal risk and yields modest public health benefits. These include large relative reductions in child morbidity and mortality, although the absolute reduction is small because these events are rare. Furthermore, the model predicts "altruistic" absolute reductions in adult cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. However, vaccinating children to benefit adults should be considered from an ethical as well as a public health perspective. From a global health perspective, an additional ethical consideration is the justice of giving priority to children in high-income settings at low risk of severe disease while vaccines have not been made available to vulnerable adults in low-income settings. IMPORTANCE Countries have recently begun implementation of childhood vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 with the Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine in children 5 to 11 years of age. Because SARS-CoV-2 disease severity is remarkably age dependent, vaccinating children may have modest public health benefits, relative to the unequivocal benefit of vaccinating vulnerable older adults. Furthermore, vaccinating children to "altruistically" increase herd immunity should be considered from an ethical as well as a public health perspective. An additional question is related to global social justice: should priority be given to vaccinating children in high-income settings while older adult populations in low-resource settings have limited access to vaccine? To address the risks and benefits of childhood vaccination, we provide a balanced commentary, supported by a mathematical epidemiological model, using Australia and Alberta, Canada, as case studies. We give highlights of the modeling findings in the commentary and include details in the supplemental materials for interested readers.

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Why are we vaccinating children against COVID-19?

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