Dataset Information

Identifying adults at high-risk for change in weight and BMI in England: a longitudinal, large-scale, population-based cohort study using electronic health records.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Targeted obesity prevention policies would benefit from the identification of population groups with the highest risk of weight gain. The relative importance of adult age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation on weight gain is not known. We aimed to identify high-risk groups for changes in weight and BMI using electronic health records (EHR).

Methods

In this longitudinal, population-based cohort study we used linked EHR data from 400 primary care practices (via the Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England, accessed via the CALIBER programme. Eligible participants were aged 18-74 years, were registered at a general practice clinic, and had BMI and weight measurements recorded between Jan 1, 1998, and June 30, 2016, during the period when they had eligible linked data with at least 1 year of follow-up time. We calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over 1, 5, and 10 years, and investigated the absolute risk and odds ratios (ORs) of transitioning between BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and severe obesity [class 3]), as defined by WHO. The associations of demographic factors with BMI transitions were estimated by use of logistic regression analysis, adjusting for baseline BMI, family history of cardiovascular disease, use of diuretics, and prevalent chronic conditions.

Findings

We included 2 092 260 eligible individuals with more than 9 million BMI measurements in our study. Young adult age was the strongest risk factor for weight gain at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Compared with the oldest age group (65-74 years), adults in the youngest age group (18-24 years) had the highest OR (4·22 [95% CI 3·86-4·62]) and greatest absolute risk (37% vs 24%) of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity at 10 years. Likewise, adults in the youngest age group with overweight or obesity at baseline were also at highest risk to transition to a higher BMI category; OR 4·60 (4·06-5·22) and absolute risk (42% vs 18%) of transitioning from overweight to class 1 and 2 obesity, and OR 5·87 (5·23-6·59) and absolute risk (22% vs 5%) of transitioning from class 1 and 2 obesity to class 3 obesity. Other demographic factors were consistently less strongly associated with these transitions; for example, the OR of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity in people living in the most socially deprived versus least deprived areas was 1·23 (1·18-1·27), for men versus women was 1·12 (1·08-1·16), and for Black individuals versus White individuals was 1·13 (1·04-1·24). We provide an open access online risk calculator, and present high-resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year follow-up period.

Interpretation

A radical shift in policy is required to focus on individuals at the highest risk of weight gain (ie, young adults aged 18-24 years) for individual-level and population-level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care.

Funding

The British Hearth Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.

SUBMITTER: Katsoulis M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8440227 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundIn England, almost all general practices (GPs) have implemented GP online services such as electronic personal health records (ePHRs) that allow people to schedule appointments, request repeat prescriptions, and access parts of their medical records. The overall adoption rate of GP online services has been low, reaching just 28% in October 2019. In a previous study, Abd-Alrazaq et al adopted a model to assess the factors that influence patients' use of GP online services in England. According to the previous literature, the predictive power of the Abd-Alrazaq model could be improved by proposing new associations between the existing variables in the model.ObjectiveThis study aims to improve the predictive power of the Abd-Alrazaq model by proposing new relationships between the existing variables in the model.MethodsThe Abd-Alrazaq model was amended by proposing new direct, mediating, moderating, and moderated mediating effects. The amended model was examined using data from a previous study, which were collected by a cross-sectional survey of a convenience sample of 4 GPs in West Yorkshire, England. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the theoretical model and hypotheses.ResultsThe new model accounted for 53% of the variance in performance expectancy (PE), 76% of the variance in behavioral intention (BI), and 49% of the variance in use behavior (UB). In addition to the significant associations found in the previous study, this study found that social influence (SI) and facilitating conditions (FCs) are associated with PE directly and BI indirectly through PE. The association between BI and UB was stronger for younger women with higher levels of education, income, and internet access. The indirect effects of effort expectancy (EE), perceived privacy and security (PPS), and SI on BI were statistically stronger for women without internet access, patients with internet access, and patients without internet access, respectively. The indirect effect of PPS on BI was stronger for patients with college education or diploma than for those with secondary school education and lower, whereas the indirect effect of EE on BI was stronger for patients with secondary school education or lower than for those with college education or a diploma.ConclusionsThe predictive power of the Abd-Alrazaq model improved by virtue of new significant associations that were not examined before in the context of ePHRs. Further studies are required to validate the new model in different contexts and to improve its predictive power by proposing new variables. The influential factors found in this study should be considered to improve patients' use of ePHRs.

Project description:BackgroundElectronic health records (EHRs) provide rich data on many domains not routinely available in other data, as such, they are a promising source to study changes in health outcomes using longitudinal study designs (eg, cohort studies, natural experiments, etc.). Yet, patient attrition rates in these data are unknown.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to estimate overall and among adults with diabetes or hypertension: (1) patient attrition over a 3-year period at community health centers; and (2) the likelihood that patients with Medicaid permanently switched their source of primary care.Research designA retrospective cohort study of 2012-2017 data from the Accelerating Data Value Across a National Community Health Center Network (ADVANCE) Clinical Data Research Network of community health centers were used to assess EHR data attrition. Oregon Medicaid enrollment and claims data were used to estimate the likelihood of changing the source of primary care.SubjectsA total of 827,657 patients aged 19-64 with ≥1 ambulatory visit from 76 community health center systems across 20 states. In all, 232,891 Oregon Medicaid enrollees (aged 19-64) with a gap of ≥6 months following a claim for a visit billed to a primary care source.MeasuresPercentage of patients not returning within 3 years of their qualifying visit (attrition). The probability that a patient with Medicaid permanently changed their primary care source.ResultsAttrition over the 3 years averaged 33.5%; attrition rates were lower (<25%) among patients with diabetes and/or hypertension. Among Medicaid enrollees, the percentage of provider change after a 6-month gap between visits was 12% for community health center patients compared with 39% for single-provider practice patients. Over 3 years, the likelihood of a patient changing to a new provider increased with length of time since their last visit but remained lowest among community health center patients.ConclusionThis study demonstrates the use of the EHR dataset is a reliable source of data to support longitudinal studies while highlighting variability in attrition by primary care source and chronic conditions.