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Pupils returning to primary schools in England during 2020: rapid estimations of punctual COVID-19 infection rates.

ABSTRACT: Drawing on risk methods from volcano crises, we developed a rapid COVID-19 infection model for the partial return of pupils to primary schools in England in June and July 2020, and a full return in September 2020. The model handles uncertainties in key parameters, using a stochastic re-sampling technique, allowing us to evaluate infection levels as a function of COVID-19 prevalence and projected pupil and staff headcounts. Assuming average national adult prevalence, for the first scenario (as at 1 June 2020) we found that between 178 and 924 [90% CI] schools would have at least one infected individual, out of 16 769 primary schools in total. For the second return (July), our estimate ranged between 336 (2%) and 1873 (11%) infected schools. For a full return in September 2020, our projected range was 661 (4%) to 3310 (20%) infected schools, assuming the same prevalence as for 5 June. If national prevalence fell to one-quarter of that, the projected September range would decrease to between 381 (2%) and 900 (5%) schools but would increase to between 2131 (13%) and 9743 (58%) schools if prevalence increased to 4× June level. When regional variations in prevalence and school size distribution were included in the model, a slight decrease in the projected number of infected schools was indicated, but uncertainty on estimates increased markedly. The latter model variant indicated that 82% of infected schools would be in areas where prevalence exceeded the national average and the probability of multiple infected persons in a school would be higher in such areas. Post hoc, our model projections for 1 September 2020 were seen to have been realistic and reasonable (in terms of related uncertainties) when data on schools' infections were released by official agencies following the start of the 2020/2021 academic year.

SUBMITTER: Aspinall WP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8441136 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in educational settings. Public Health England initiated a study, COVID-19 Surveillance in School KIDs (sKIDs), in primary schools when they partially reopened from June 1, 2020, after the first national lockdown in England to estimate the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, seroprevalence, and seroconversion in staff and students.MethodssKIDs, an active, prospective, surveillance study, included two groups: the weekly swabbing group and the blood sampling group. The swabbing group underwent weekly nasal swabs for at least 4 weeks after partial school reopening during the summer half-term (June to mid-July, 2020). The blood sampling group additionally underwent blood sampling for serum SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to measure previous infection at the beginning (June 1-19, 2020) and end (July 3-23, 2020) of the summer half-term, and, after full reopening in September, 2020, and at the end of the autumn term (Nov 23-Dec 18, 2020). We tested for predictors of SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity using logistic regression. We calculated antibody seroconversion rates for participants who were seronegative in the first round and were tested in at least two rounds.FindingsDuring the summer half-term, 11 966 participants (6727 students, 4628 staff, and 611 with unknown staff or student status) in 131 schools had 40 501 swabs taken. Weekly SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were 4·1 (one of 24 463; 95% CI 0·1-21·8) per 100 000 students and 12·5 (two of 16 038; 1·5-45·0) per 100 000 staff. At recruitment, in 45 schools, 91 (11·2%; 95% CI 7·9-15·1) of 816 students and 209 (15·1%; 11·9-18·9) of 1381 staff members were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, similar to local community seroprevalence. Seropositivity was not associated with school attendance during lockdown (p=0·13 for students and p=0·20 for staff) or staff contact with students (p=0·37). At the end of the summer half-term, 603 (73·9%) of 816 students and 1015 (73·5%) of 1381 staff members were still participating in the surveillance, and five (four students, one staff member) seroconverted. By December, 2020, 55 (5·1%; 95% CI 3·8-6·5) of 1085 participants who were seronegative at recruitment (in June, 2020) had seroconverted, including 19 (5·6%; 3·4-8·6) of 340 students and 36 (4·8%; 3·4-6·6) of 745 staff members (p=0·60).InterpretationIn England, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were low in primary schools following their partial and full reopening in June and September, 2020.FundingUK Department of Health and Social Care.

Project description:BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, face-to-face delivery of education in schools across Wales was disrupted with repeated school closures to limit risk of infection. Evidence describing the incidence of infection amongst school staff during times when schools were open is limited. A previous research study found infection rates were higher in English primary school settings when compared with secondary. An Italian study suggested teachers weren't at greater risk of infection in comparison to the general population. The aim of this study was to identify whether educational staff had higher incidence rates than their counterparts in the general population in Wales, and secondly whether incidence rates amongst staff differed between primary and secondary school settings and by teacher age.MethodsWe performed a retrospective observational cohort study using the national case detection and contact tracing system implemented during the COVID pandemic. Age stratified person-day COVID-19 incidence rates amongst teaching staff linked to primary or secondary schools in Wales were calculated for the autumn and summer terms during 2020-2021.ResultsThe observed pooled COVID-19 incidence rates for staff across both terms was 23.30 per 100,000 person days (95% CI: 22.31-24.33). By comparison, the rate in the general population aged 19-65, was 21.68 per 100,000 person days (95%: CI 21.53-21.84). Incidence among teaching staff was highest in the two youngest age groups (< 25 years and 25-29 years). When compared to the age matched general population, incidence was higher in the autumn term amongst primary school teachers aged ≤ 39 years, and in the summer term higher only in the primary school teachers aged < 25 years.ConclusionThe data were consistent with an elevated risk of COVID-19 amongst younger teaching staff in primary schools when compared to the general population, however differences in case ascertainment couldn't be excluded as a possible reason for this. Rate differences by age group in teaching staff mirrored those in the general population. The risk in older teachers (≥ 50 years) in both settings was the same or lower than in the general population. Amongst all age groups of teachers maintaining the key risk mitigations within periods of COVID transmission remain important.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Researchers and policy-makers are interested in the influence that food retailing around schools may have on child obesity risk. Most previous research comes from North America, uses data aggregated at the school-level and focuses on associations between fast food outlets and school obesity rates. This study examines associations between food retailing and BMI among a large sample of primary school students in Berkshire, England. By controlling for individual, school and home characteristics and stratifying results across the primary school years, we aimed to identify if the food environment around schools had an effect on BMI, independent of socio-economic variables. METHODS:We measured the densities of fast food outlets and food stores found within schoolchildren's home and school environments using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and data from local councils. We linked these data to measures from the 2010/11 National Child Measurement Programme and used a cross-classified multi-level approach to examine associations between food retailing and BMI z-scores. Analyses were stratified among Reception (aged 4-5) and Year 6 (aged 10-11) students to measure associations across the primary school years. RESULTS:Our multilevel model had three levels to account for individual (n = 16,956), home neighbourhood (n = 664) and school (n = 268) factors. After controlling for confounders, there were no significant associations between retailing near schools and student BMI, but significant positive associations between fast food outlets in home neighbourhood and BMI z-scores. Year 6 students living in areas with the highest density of fast food outlets had an average BMI z-score that was 0.12 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.20) higher than those living in areas with none. DISCUSSION:We found little evidence to suggest that food retailing around schools influences student BMI. There is some evidence to suggest that fast food outlet densities in a child's home neighbourhood may have an effect on BMI, particularly among girls, but more research is needed to inform effective policies targeting the effects of the retail environment on child obesity.

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Pupils returning to primary schools in England during 2020: rapid estimations of punctual COVID-19 infection rates.

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