How COVID‐19 Medical Supply Shortages Led to Extraordinary Trade and Industrial Policy
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bown C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8441910 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The COVID-19 outbreak put healthcare systems across the globe under immense pressure to meet the unprecedented demand for critical supplies and personal protective equipment (PPE). The traditional cost-effective supply chain paradigm failed to respond to the increased demand, putting healthcare workers (HCW) at a much higher infection risk relative to the general population. Recognizing PPE shortages and high infection risk for HCWs, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends allocations based on ethical principles. In this paper, we model the infection risk for HCWs as a function of usage and use it as the basis for distribution planning that balances government procurement decisions, hospitals' PPE usage policies, and WHO ethical allocation guidelines. We propose an infection risk model that integrates PPE allocation decisions with disease progression estimates to quantify infection risk among HCWs. The proposed risk function is used to derive closed-form allocation decisions under WHO ethical guidelines in both deterministic and stochastic settings. The modelling is then extended to dynamic distribution planning. Although nonlinear, we reformulate the resulting model to make it solvable using off-the-shelf software. The risk function successfully accounts for virus prevalence in space and in time and leads to allocations that are sensitive to the differences between regions. Comparative analysis shows that the allocation policies lead to significantly different levels of infection risk, especially under high virus prevalence. The best-outcome allocation policy that aims to minimize the total infected cases outperforms other policies under this objective and that of minimizing the maximum number of infections per period.
| S-EPMC10091728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:At the centre of the multi-dimensional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the shortage of medical supplies in countries with weaker healthcare systems significantly reduced the effectiveness of national and international public health interventions. Using a database of test-kit trade flows and barriers, we estimate the price responsiveness of test-kit demand in a global sample of countries. These estimates allow us to investigate the degree to which import tariffs by leading producers could result in a disruption in global supply chains, price increases, and welfare loss. Simulation experiments indicate that the combination of rising demand for test kits and import dependence magnifies the impact of trade barriers on consumer welfare and this impact is more profound for developing countries.
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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected various aspects of daily life, particularly the supply and demand of essential goods, resulting in critical shortages. This included personal protective equipment for medical professionals and the general public. To address these shortages, online 'maker communities' emerged, aiming to develop and locally manufacture critical products. While some organized efforts existed, the majority of initiatives originated from individuals and groups on platforms like Thingiverse. This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of Thingiverse, one of the largest maker community websites, to examine the pandemic's effects. Our findings reveal a surge in community output during the initial lockdown periods in major contributing nations (primarily those in the Western Hemisphere), followed by a subsequent decline. Additionally, throughout 2020, pandemic-related products dominated uploads and interactions during this period. Based on these observations, we propose recommendations to expedite the community's ability to support local, national and international responses to future disasters.
| S-EPMC10523067 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper examines the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on exports by Chinese cities. We use city-level export data at a monthly frequency from January 2018 through April 2020. Differences-in-differences estimates suggest cities in lockdown experienced a ceteris paribus 34 percentage points reduction in the year-on-year growth rate of exports. The lockdown impacted the intensive and extensive margin, with higher exit and lower new entry into foreign markets. The drop in exports was smaller in (i) coastal cities; (ii) cities with better-developed ICT infrastructure; and (iii) cities with a larger share of potential teleworkers. Time-sensitive and differentiated goods experienced a more pronounced decline in export growth. Global supply chain characteristics matter, with more upstream products and industries that had accumulated larger inventories experiencing a smaller decline in export growth. Also, products that relied more on imported (domestic) intermediates experienced a sharper (flatter) slowdown in export growth. The rapid recovery in cities' exports after lockdowns were lifted suggests the policy was cost-effective in terms of its effects on trade.
| S-EPMC8447424 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDuring the past two years, the COVID-19 pandemic has cost millions of lives around the globe, caused major morbidity and provoked widespread economic and social disruption. In response, governments have enacted policies to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. This research focuses in on policies aimed at increasing access to essential health products and services by comparing them to the global rules governing trade, investment and intellectual property. We have assessed whether these rules have or could have constrained countries in responding to this and future crises. The study identifies the nature and scope of the trade-related health sector policies implemented by our sample group of countries, selected because of their systemic significance: the United States, Germany, France, China, South Africa and India. Each policy is placed into one of five broad categories covered by trade and investment rules so that we could assess their consistency with those rules.ResultsWe found, among other things, that the types of trade-related health measures were quite diverse. The high-income countries in our study were the most active in the policy space and tended to rely on subsidies-based measures while the middle-income countries relied more heavily on export and import measures. Policies directly relevant to intellectual property protection were virtually non-existent. When evaluating the implemented policies against the global trade and investment rules, we found potential constraints under five different types of rules: those governing subsidies, import and export trade barriers, investment measures, government procurement and trade-related intellectual property.ConclusionsGiven the tension between the global rules and the practices of policymaking during the pandemic, we conclude that the tension must be resolved in favor of governments making policy rather than relying on existing exceptions or pushing national governments to comply more exactly with the rules. Although the pandemic itself does not respect national borders, governance still generally occurs at the national level because national governments are often the only entities with both the legal authority and the practical ability to respond.
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Project description: Not available
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Project description:This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countries that were members of regional trade agreements before the pandemic. Second, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is negative and significant when we consider indicators related to governmental actions. Finally, this negative effect is more intense when exporter and importer country share identical income levels. In the latter case, the highest negative impact is found for exports between high-income countries.
| S-EPMC8513914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Economic shocks from COVID-19, coupled with ongoing US-China tensions, have raised debates around supply chain (or global value chain) organisation, with China at the centre of the storm. However, quantitative studies that consider the global and economy-wide impacts of rerouting supply chains are limited. This study examines the economic and emissions impacts of reorganising supply chains, using Australia-China trade as an example. It augments the Hypothetical Extraction Method by replacing traditional Input-Output analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium analysis. The estimation results demonstrate that in both exports and imports, a trade embargo between Australia and China - despite being compensated for by alternative supply chains-will cause gross domestic production losses and emissions increases for both countries and the world overall. Moreover, even though all other economies gain from the markets left by China, many of them incur overall gross domestic production losses and emission increases. The finding that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and India may also suffer from an Australia-China trade embargo, despite a gain in trade volume, suggests that no country should add fuel to the fire. The results suggest that countries need to defend a rules-based trading regime and jointly address supply chain challenges.
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Project description:The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in economic and social lockdowns in most countries all over the globe. Early identification of infected individuals is regarded as one of the most important prerequisites for fighting the pandemic and for returning to a 'New Normal'. Large-scale testing is therefore crucial, but is facing several challenges including shortage of sample collection tools and of molecular biological reagents, and the need for safe electronic communication of medical reports. We present the successful establishment of a holistic SARS-CoV-2 testing platform that covers proband registration, sample collection and shipment, sample testing, and report issuing. The RT-PCR-based virus detection, being central to the platform, was extensively validated: sensitivity and specificity were defined as 96.8% and 100%, respectively; intra-run and inter-run precision were <3%. A novel type of sample swab and an in-house-developed RNA extraction system were shown to perform as good as commercially available products. The resulting flexibility guarantees independence from the current bottlenecks in SARS-CoV-2 testing. Based on our technology, we offered testing at local, national, and global levels. In the present study, we report the results from approx. 18,000 SARS-CoV-2 tests in almost 10,000 individuals from a low-frequency SARS-CoV-2 pandemic area in a homogenous geographical region in north-eastern Germany for a period of 10 weeks (21 March to 31 May 2020). Among the probands, five SARS-CoV-2 positive cases were identified. Comparative analysis of corresponding virus genomes revealed a diverse origin from three of the five currently recognized SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic clades. Our study exemplifies how preventive SARS-CoV-2 testing can be set up in a rapid and flexible manner. The application of our test has enabled a safe maintenance/resume of critical local infrastructure, e.g., nursing homes where more than 5000 elderlies and caretakers got tested. The strategy outlined by the present study may serve as a blueprint for the implementation of large-scale preventive SARS-CoV-2 testing elsewhere.
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Project description:In the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, members of Boston Emergency Medical Services, the City of Boston's municipal ambulance service, had 7,689 encounters with confirmed-positive Boston residents. As COVID-19 virus strains continue to infect residents in Boston and across the country, understanding the correlation between population positivity, EMS encounters, and hospitalizations can inform healthcare response. This study examines urban virus-surveillance indicators that can serve as an early warning of the volume of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) encounters with COVID-19 positive patients and subsequently how EMS encounters with confirmed COVID-19 patients can serve as an early indicator of future hospital-demand surges. With daily data from Boston EMS and three other public agencies, we evaluate the relationship between five indicators and confirmed Boston EMS COVID-19 encounters by estimating separate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models and cross-correlating their residuals. This study finds a significant and positive correlation between new COVID-19 cases citywide and EMS encounters 6 days later (p < 0.01), as well as between confirmed EMS encounters with COVID-19 patients and the number of intensive care unit beds occupied 7- and 18 -days later (p < 0.01). This study provides city health leadership needed clarity on the specific ordering and associated time lag in which infections in the population increase, EMS members encounter positive patients, and hospitals deliver care.
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