Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Berestycki H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8443568 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 1,000,000 reported deaths globally, of which more than 200,000 have been reported in the United States as of October 1, 2020. Public health interventions have had significant impacts in reducing transmission and in averting even more deaths. Nonetheless, in many jurisdictions, the decline of cases and fatalities after apparent epidemic peaks has not been rapid. Instead, the asymmetric decline in cases appears, in most cases, to be consistent with plateau- or shoulder-like phenomena-a qualitative observation reinforced by a symmetry analysis of US state-level fatality data. Here we explore a model of fatality-driven awareness in which individual protective measures increase with death rates. In this model, fast increases to the peak are often followed by plateaus, shoulders, and lag-driven oscillations. The asymmetric shape of model-predicted incidence and fatality curves is consistent with observations from many jurisdictions. Yet, in contrast to model predictions, we find that population-level mobility metrics usually increased from low levels before fatalities reached an initial peak. We show that incorporating fatigue and long-term behavior change can reconcile the apparent premature relaxation of mobility reductions and help understand when post-peak dynamics are likely to lead to a resurgence of cases.
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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 1,000,000 reported deaths globally, of which more than 200,000 have been reported in the United States as of October 1, 2020. Public health interventions have had significant impacts in reducing transmission and in averting even more deaths. Nonetheless, in many jurisdictions the decline of cases and fatalities after apparent epidemic peaks has not been rapid. Instead, the asymmetric decline in cases appears, in most cases, to be consistent with plateau-or shoulder-like phenomena - a qualitative observation reinforced by a symmetry analysis of US state-level fatality data. Here we explore a model of fatality-driven awareness in which individual protective measures increase with death rates. In this model, fast increases to the peak are often followed by plateaus, shoulders, and lag-driven oscillations. The asymmetric shape of model-predicted incidence and fatality curves are consistent with observations from many jurisdictions. Yet, in contrast to model predictions, we find that population-level mobility metrics usually increased from low early-outbreak levels before peak levels of fatalities. We show that incorporating fatigue and long-term behavior change can reconcile the apparent premature relaxation of mobility reductions and help understand when post-peak dynamics are likely to lead to a resurgence of cases.
| S-EPMC7273247 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Antibiotic treatment has emerged as a promising strategy to sterilize and kill filarial nematodes due to their dependence on their endosymbiotic bacteria, Wolbachia. Several studies have shown that novel and FDA-approved antibiotics are efficacious at depleting the filarial nematodes of their endosymbiont, thus reducing female fecundity. However, it remains unclear if antibiotics can permanently deplete Wolbachia and cause sterility for the lifespan of the adult worms. Concerns about resistance arising from mass drug administration necessitate a careful exploration of potential Wolbachia recrudescence. In the present study, we investigated the long-term effects of the FDA-approved antibiotic, rifampicin, in the Brugia pahangi jird model of infection. Initially, rifampicin treatment depleted Wolbachia in adult worms and simultaneously impaired female worm fecundity. However, during an 8-month washout period, Wolbachia titers rebounded and embryogenesis returned to normal. Genome sequence analyses of Wolbachia revealed that despite the population bottleneck and recovery, no genetic changes occurred that could account for the rebound. Clusters of densely packed Wolbachia within the worm's ovarian tissues were observed by confocal microscopy and remained in worms treated with rifampicin, suggesting that they may serve as privileged sites that allow Wolbachia to persist in worms while treated with antibiotic. To our knowledge, these clusters have not been previously described and may be the source of the Wolbachia rebound.
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Project description:Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility) would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions) with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i) minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii) the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii) the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv) the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v) age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty observed in real-time forecasting and predicting of the characteristics of an epidemic.
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Project description:BackgroundIncreases in life expectancy make it important to remain healthy for as long as possible. Our objective was to examine the extent to which healthy behaviours in midlife, separately and in combination, predict successful aging.MethodsWe used a prospective cohort design involving 5100 men and women aged 42-63 years. Participants were free of cancer, coronary artery disease and stroke when their health behaviours were assessed in 1991-1994 as part of the Whitehall II study. We defined healthy behaviours as never smoking, moderate alcohol consumption, physical activity (? 2.5 h/wk moderate physical activity or ? 1 h/wk vigorous physical activity), and eating fruits and vegetables daily. We defined successful aging, measured over a median 16.3-year follow-up, as good cognitive, physical, respiratory and cardiovascular functioning, in addition to the absence of disability, mental health problems and chronic disease (coronary artery disease, stroke, cancer and diabetes).ResultsAt the end of follow-up, 549 participants had died and 953 qualified as aging successfully. Compared with participants who engaged in no healthy behaviours, participants engaging in all 4 healthy behaviours had 3.3 times greater odds of successful aging (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1-5.1). The association with successful aging was linear, with the odds ratio (OR) per increment of healthy behaviour being 1.3 (95% CI 1.2-1.4; population-attributable risk for 1-4 v. 0 healthy behaviours 47%). When missing data were considered in the analysis, the results were similar to those of our main analysis.InterpretationAlthough individual healthy behaviours are moderately associated with successful aging, their combined impact is substantial. We did not investigate the mechanisms underlying these associations, but we saw clear evidence of the importance of healthy behaviours for successful aging.
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