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The use of face masks during vaccine roll-out in New YorkCity and impact on epidemic control.

ABSTRACT: Face masks were mandated in New York during the first wave in 2020, and in 2021 the first vaccine programs have commenced. We aimed to examine the impact of face mask and other NPIs use with a gradual roll out of vaccines in NYC on the epidemic trajectory. A SEIR mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was developed for New York City (NYC), which accounted for decreased mobility for lockdown, testing and tracing. Varied mask's usage and efficacy were tested, along with a gradual increase in vaccine uptake over five months. The model has been calibrated using notification data in NYC from March first to June 29. Masks and other NPIs result in immediate impact on the epidemic, while vaccination has a delayed impact, especially when implemented over a long period of time. A pre-emptive, early mandate for masks is more effective than late mask use, but even late mask mandates will reduce cases and deaths by over 20%. The epidemic curve is suppressed by at least 50% of people wearing a mask from the start of the outbreak but surges when mask wearing drops to 30% or less. With a slow roll out of vaccines over five months at uptake levels of 20-70%, NPIs use will still be needed and has a greater impact on epidemic control. When vaccine roll out is slow or partial in cities experiencing local transmission of COVID-19, masks and other NPIs will be necessary to mitigate transmission until vaccine coverage is high and complete. Vaccine alone cannot rapidly control an epidemic because of the time lag to two-dose immunity. Even after high coverage, the ongoing need for NPIs is unknown and will depend on long-term duration of vaccine efficacy, the use of boosters and optimized dosage scheduling and variants of concern.

SUBMITTER: Raina MacIntyre C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8443976 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe UK was the first country to launch a national pandemic COVID-19 vaccination programme, which was implemented swiftly despite significant vaccine supply constraints. The delivery strategy used a combination of mass vaccination sites operated by NHS secondary care providers and local sites led by Primary Care Networks, and local pharmacies. Despite nation-wide rollout, persistent gaps in coverage continued to affect particular populations, including ethnic minority and marginalised social groups.AimThe study examined sub-national immunisation commissioners and providers' perspectives on how the COVID-19 vaccine programme was operationalised, and how delivery strategies impacted inequalities in access to vaccination services and uptake. The study aimed to inform national programme implementation, sustainability and future pandemic preparedness.MethodsQualitative research was conducted in eight local NHS areas in 4 regions of England. Semi-structured interviews were performed with 82 sub-national NHS and public health vaccine providers and commissioners.ResultsEngland's COVID-19 vaccination programme was described as top down, centralised and highly political. The programme gradually morphed from a predominantly mass vaccination strategy into more locally driven and tailored approaches able to respond more effectively to inequalities in uptake. Over time more flexibility was introduced, as providers adapted services by "working around" the national systems for vaccine supply and appointment booking. The constant change faced by providers and commissioners was mitigated by high staff motivation and resilience, local collaboration and pragmatism. Opportunities for efficient implementation were missed because priority was given to achieving national performance targets at the expense of a more flexible sub-national tailored delivery.ConclusionPandemic vaccination delivery models need to be adapted for underserved and hesitant groups, working in collaboration with local actors. Learnings from the initial COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in England and elsewhere is important to inform future pandemic responses, in tailoring strategies to local communities, and improve large-scale vaccination programmes.

Project description:BackgroundVaccination has played a pivotal role in reducing the burden of COVID-19. Despite numerous studies highlighting its benefits in reducing the risk of severe disease and death, we still lack a quantitative understanding of how varying vaccination roll-out rates influence COVID-19 mortality.MethodsWe developed a framework for estimating the number of avertable COVID-19 deaths (ACDs) by vaccination in Iran. To achieve this, we compared Iran's vaccination roll-out rates with those of eight model countries that predominantly used inactivated virus vaccines. We calculated net differences in the number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual scenarios where Iran's per-capita roll-out rate was replaced with that of the model countries. This, in turn, enabled us to determine age specific ACDs for the Iranian population under counterfactual scenarios where number of COVID-19 deaths are estimated using all-cause mortality data. These estimates covered the period from the start of 2020 to 20 April 2022.ResultsWe found that while Iran would have had an approximately similar number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual roll-out rates based on Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey (~ 65-70%), adopting Turkey's roll-out rates could have averted 50,000 (95% confidence interval: 38,100-53,500) additional deaths, while following Bangladesh's rates may have resulted in 52,800 (17,400-189,500) more fatalities in Iran. Surprisingly, mimicking Argentina's slower roll-out led to only 12,600 (10,400-13,300) fewer deaths, despite a higher counterfactual percentage of fully vaccinated individuals (~ 79%). Emulating Montenegro or Bolivia, with faster per capita roll-out rates and approximately 50% counterfactual full vaccination, could have prevented more deaths in older age groups, especially during the early waves. Finally, replicating Bahrain's model as an upper-bound benchmark, Iran could have averted 75,300 (56,000-83,000) deaths, primarily in the > 50 age groups.ConclusionsOur analysis revealed that faster roll-outs were consistently associated with higher numbers of averted deaths, even in scenarios with lower overall coverage. This study offers valuable insights into future decision-making regarding infectious disease epidemic management through vaccination strategies. It accomplishes this by comparing various countries' relative performance in terms of timing, pace, and vaccination coverage, ultimately contributing to the prevention of COVID-19-related deaths.

Project description:The World Health Organization has advocated mandatory face mask usage to combat the spread of COVID-19, with multilayer masks recommended for enhanced protection. However, this recommendation has not been widely adopted, with noncompliant persons citing discomfort during prolonged usage of face masks. And yet, a scientific understanding on how face mask fabrics/garment systems affect thermophysiological comfort remains lacking. We aimed to investigate how fabric/garment properties alter the thermal and evaporative resistances responsible for thermophysiological strain. We constructed 12 different layered facemasks (D1-D5, T1-T6, Q1) with various filters using commercially available fabrics. Three approaches were employed: (1) the evaporative and thermal resistances were measured in all the test face masks using the medium size to determine the effect of fabric properties; (2) the effect of face mask size by testing close-fitted (small), fitted (medium) and loose fitted (large) face mask T-6; (3) the effect of face mask fit by donning a large size face mask T-6, both loose and tightened using thermal manikin, Newton. ANOVA test revealed that the additional N95 middle layer filter has no significant effect on the thermal resistances of all the face masks, and evaporative resistances except for face masks T-2 and T-3 (P-values<0.05) whereas size significantly affected thermal and evaporative resistances (P-values<0.05). The correlation coefficient between the air gap size and the thermal and evaporative resistance of face masks T-6 were R2 = 0.96 and 0.98, respectively. The tight fit large face mask had superior performance in the dissipation of heat and moisture from the skin (P-values <0.05). Three-layer masks incorporating filters and water-resistant and antimicrobial/antiviral finishes did not increase discomfort. Interestingly, using face masks with fitters improved user comfort, decreasing thermal and evaporative resistances in direct opposition to the preconceived notion that safer masks decrease comfort.

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The use of face masks during vaccine roll-out in New YorkCity and impact on epidemic control.

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