Dataset Information

Regional suicide prevention planning: a dynamic simulation modelling analysis

ABSTRACT:

Background

Regional planning may help to ensure that the specific measures implemented as part of a national suicide prevention strategy are aligned with the varying needs of local services and communities; however, there are concerns that the reliability of local programme development may be limited in practice.

Aims

The potential impacts of independent regional planning on the effectiveness of suicide prevention programmes in the Australian state of New South Wales were quantified using a system dynamics model of mental health services provision and suicidal behaviour in each of the state's ten Primary Health Network (PHN) catchments.

Method

Reductions in projected suicide mortality over the period 2021–2031 were calculated for scenarios in which combinations of four and five suicide prevention and mental health services interventions (selected from 13 possible interventions) are implemented separately in each PHN catchment. State-level impacts were estimated by summing reductions in projected suicide mortality for each intervention combination across PHN catchments.

Results

The most effective state-level combinations of four and five interventions prevent, respectively, 20.3% and 22.9% of 10 312 suicides projected under a business-as-usual scenario (i.e. no new policies or programmes, constant services capacity growth). Projected numbers of suicides under the optimal intervention scenarios for each PHN are up to 6% lower than corresponding numbers of suicides projected for the optimal state-level intervention combinations.

Conclusions

Regional suicide prevention planning may contribute to significant reductions in suicide mortality where local health authorities are provided with the necessary resources and tools to support reliable, evidence-based decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Skinner A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8444054 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionMental health services are fragmented in Australia leading to a priority being placed on whole-of-community approaches and integration. We describe the LifeSpan suicide prevention intervention developed by the Black Dog Institute that draws upon nine evidence-based community-wide strategies. We examined the suicide prevention Collaborative group at each site. We evaluated how the social capital of the community and service providers changed, and how the brokerage roles of the Collaborative affected integration of effort.MethodsThis was a two phase, explanatory mixed methods study. Participants were LifeSpan Coordinators, The Collaborative and working group members at four LifeSpan sites in New South Wales (three metropolitan/regional, one regional/rural). Quantitative social network data was collected through an online survey and analysed using Gephi software. Qualitative data through focus groups and interviews with Lifespan Coordinators and community stakeholders.ResultsThe social network survey was administered in three sites and was completed by 83 people. Data gave quantitative evidence of increased engagement across key stakeholders in each region who had not previously been working together. Nominations of other collaborators showed this network extended beyond the formal structures of The Collaborative. LifeSpan Coordinators were empirically identified as key players in the networks. Qualitative data was collected from 53 individuals (18 interviews and five focus groups) from across all sites. Participants identified benefits of this collaborative approach including greater capacity to run activities, better communication between groups, identification of "who's who" locally, improvement in the integration of priorities, services and activities, and personal support for previously isolated members. LifeSpan Coordinators were key to the smooth running of The Collaborative. This may represent a risk to sustainability if they left. The collaboration model that suited metropolitan sites was difficult to sustain in rural sites, but gains were seen in better coordinated postvention efforts.ConclusionLifeSpan Coordinators were noted to be exceptional people who magnified the benefits of collaboration. Geographic proximity was a potent driver of social capital. Initial engagement with local stakeholders was seen as essential but time-consuming work in the implementation phase. Coordinators reported this important work was not always acknowledged as part of their formal role.

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The demand for a large Norwegian hospital's post-term pregnancy outpatient clinic has increased substantially over the last 10?years due to changes in the hospital's catchment area and to clinical guidelines. Planning the clinic is further complicated due to the high did not attend rates as a result of women giving birth. The aim of this study is to determine the maximum number of women specified clinic configurations, combination of specified clinic resources, can feasibly serve within clinic opening times. METHODS:A hybrid agent based discrete event simulation model of the clinic was used to evaluate alternative configurations to gain insight into clinic planning and to support decision making. Clinic configurations consisted of six factors: X0: Arrivals. X1: Arrival pattern. X2: Order of midwife and doctor consultations. X3: Number of midwives. X4: Number of doctors. X5: Number of cardiotocography (CTGs) machines. A full factorial experimental design of the six factors generated 608 configurations. RESULTS:Each configuration was evaluated using the following measures: Y1: Arrivals. Y2: Time last woman checks out. Y3: Women's length of stay (LoS). Y4: Clinic overrun time. Y5: Midwife waiting time (WT). Y6: Doctor WT. Y7: CTG connection WT. Optimisation was used to maximise X0 with respect to the 32 combinations of X1-X5. Configuration 0a, the base case Y1?=?7 women and Y3?=?102.97 [0.21] mins. Changing the arrival pattern (X1) and the order of the midwife and doctor consultations (X2) configuration 0d, where X3, X4, X5?=?0a, Y1?=?8 woman and Y3 86.06 [0.10] mins. CONCLUSIONS:The simulation model identified the availability of CTG machines as a bottleneck in the clinic, indicated by the WT for CTG connection effect on LoS. One additional CTG machine improved clinic performance to the same degree as an extra midwife and an extra doctor. The simulation model demonstrated significant reductions to LoS can be achieved without additional resources, by changing the clinic pathway and scheduling of appointments. A more general finding is that a simulation model can be used to identify bottlenecks, and efficient ways of restructuring an outpatient clinic.

Project description:BackgroundSystems science methods such as dynamic simulation modelling are well suited to address questions about public health policy as they consider the complexity, context and dynamic nature of system-wide behaviours. Advances in technology have led to increased accessibility and interest in systems methods to address complex health policy issues. However, the involvement of policy decision makers in health-related simulation model development has been lacking. Where end-users have been included, there has been limited examination of their experience of the participatory modelling process and their views about the utility of the findings. This paper reports the experience of end-user decision makers, including senior public health policy makers and health service providers, who participated in three participatory simulation modelling for health policy case studies (alcohol related harm, childhood obesity prevention, diabetes in pregnancy), and their perceptions of the value and efficacy of this method in an applied health sector context.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with end-user participants from three participatory simulation modelling case studies in Australian real-world policy settings. Interviewees were employees of government agencies with jurisdiction over policy and program decisions and were purposively selected to include perspectives at different stages of model development.ResultsThe 'co-production' aspect of the participatory approach was highly valued. It was reported as an essential component of building understanding of the modelling process, and thus trust in the model and its outputs as a decision-support tool. The unique benefits of simulation modelling included its capacity to explore interactions of risk factors and combined interventions, and the impact of scaling up interventions. Participants also valued simulating new interventions prior to implementation in the real world, and the comprehensive mapping of evidence and its gaps to prioritise future research. The participatory aspect of simulation modelling was time and resource intensive and therefore most suited to high priority complex topics with contested options for intervening.ConclusionThese findings highlight the value of a participatory approach to dynamic simulation modelling to support its utility in applied health policy settings.

Project description:PurposeWith emerging evidence indicating that systems-based approaches help optimise suicide prevention efforts, the National Suicide Prevention Trial sought to gather evidence on the appropriateness of these approaches to prevent suicide among at-risk populations, in regional and rural communities throughout Australia. The Tasmanian component of the Trial implemented the LifeSpan systems framework across three distinct rural areas with priority populations of men aged 40-64 and people 65 and over. The University of Tasmania's Centre for Rural Health undertook a local-level evaluation of the Trial.AimsTo explore key stakeholder perceptions of implementing a systems-based suicide prevention program in regional and rural communities in Tasmania, Australia.MethodThis study utilised qualitative methods to explore in depth, stakeholder perspectives. Focus groups and interviews were conducted with 46 participants, comprising Trial Site Working Group members (n = 25), Tasmania's Primary Health Network employees (n = 7), and other key stakeholders (n = 14). Approximately half of participants had a lived experience of suicide. Data were thematically analysed using NVivo.ResultsKey themes centred on factors impacting implementation of the Trial. These included how the Trial was established in Tasmania; Working Group governance structures and processes; communication and engagement processes; reaching priority population groups; the LifeSpan model and activity development; and the effectiveness, reach and sustainability of activities.DiscussionCommunities were acutely aware of the need to address suicide in their communities, with the Trial providing resources and coordination needed for community engagement and action. Strict adherence to the Lifespan model was challenging at the community level, with planning and time needed to focus on strategies influencing whole or multiple systems, for example health system changes, means restriction. Perceived limitations around implementation concerned varied community buy-in and stakeholder engagement and involvement, with lack of role clarity cited as a barrier to implementation within Working Groups. Barriers delivering activities to priority population groups centred around socio-cultural and technological factors, literacy, and levels of public awareness. Working Groups preferred activities which build on available capital and resources and which meet the perceived needs within the whole community. Approaches sought to increase awareness of suicide and its prevention, relationships and partnerships, and the lived experience capacity in Working Groups and communities.ConclusionStakeholder insights of implementing the National Suicide Prevention Trial in regional and rural Tasmanian from this study can help guide future community-based suicide prevention efforts, in similar geographic areas and with high-risk groups.