Dataset Information

Seasonality of Respiratory Viruses at Northern Latitudes.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Every year, respiratory viruses exact a heavy burden on Canadian hospitals during winter months. Generalizable seasonal patterns of respiratory virus transmission may estimate the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 or other emerging pathogens.

Objective

To describe the annual and biennial variation in respiratory virus seasonality in a northern climate.

Design, setting, and participants

This cohort study is an epidemiological assessment using population-based surveillance of patients with medically attended respiratory tract infection from 2005 through 2017 in Alberta, Canada. Incident cases of respiratory virus infection and infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalizations in Alberta were extracted from the Data Integration for Alberta Laboratories platform and Alberta Health Services Discharge Abstract Database, respectively. A deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible mathematical model with seasonal forcing function was fitted to the data for each virus. The possible future seasonal course of SARS-CoV-2 in northern latitudes was modeled on the basis of these observations. The analysis was conducted between December 15, 2020, and February 10, 2021.

Exposures

Seasonal respiratory pathogens.

Main outcomes and measures

Incidence (temporal pattern) of respiratory virus infections and RSV hospitalizations.

Results

A total of 37 719 incident infections with RSV, human metapneumovirus, or human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, or HKU1 among 35 375 patients (18 069 [51.1%] male; median [interquartile range], 1.29 [0.42-12.2] years) were documented. A susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model mirrored the epidemiological data, including a striking biennial variation with alternating severe and mild winter peaks. Qualitative description of the model and numerical simulations showed that strong seasonal contact rate and temporary immunity lasting 6 to 12 months were sufficient to explain biennial seasonality in these various respiratory viruses. The seasonality of 10 212 hospitalizations among children younger than 5 years with RSV was also explored. The median (interquartile range) rate of hospitalizations per 1000 live births was 18.6 (17.6-19.9) and 11.0 (10.4-11.7) in alternating even (severe) and odd (less-severe) seasons, respectively (P = .001). The hazard of admission was higher for children born in severe (even) seasons compared with those born in less-severe (odd) seasons (hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.61-1.75; P < .001).

Conclusions and relevance

In this modeling study of respiratory viruses in Alberta, Canada, the seasonality followed a pattern estimated by simple mathematical models, which may be informative for anticipating future waves of pandemic SARS-CoV-2.

SUBMITTER: Hawkes MT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8446819 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to assess the co-seasonality and co-detection of respiratory viral infections and bacteraemia in children since the introduction of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13).MethodsChildren <18 years old were eligible for inclusion if they had a respiratory infection and a positive PCR-based assay for respiratory viruses as well as a positive blood culture between 2010 and 2018 at a single referral centre in the United States, regardless of their underlying medical condition or antibiotic treatment history. Monthly incidence rates of respiratory viruses and bacteraemia were analysed with a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) and cross-correlation functions using time series regression modelling.ResultsWe identified 7415 unique positive respiratory virus tests, including 2278 respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (31%), 1825 influenza viruses (24%), 1036 parainfluenza viruses (14%), 1017 human metapneumovirus (hMPV) (14%), 677 seasonal coronaviruses (9%), and 582 adenoviruses (8%), together with a total of 11 827 episodes of bacteraemia. Significant co-seasonality was found between all-cause bacteraemia and RSV (OR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.50-2.06, p < 0.001), influenza viruses (OR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.13-1.68, p 0.002), and seasonal coronaviruses (OR = 1.18, 95%CI 1.09-1.28, p < 0.001), respectively. Analysis of linked viral-bacterial infections in individual children indicated that the rate ratio (RR) of bacteraemia associated with hMPV (RR = 2.73, 95%CI 1.12-6.85, p 0.019) and influenza (RR = 2.61, 95%CI 1.21-6.11, p 0.013) were more than double that of RSV. Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae were the most commonly identified pathogens causing bacteraemia.ConclusionsThere is a significant association between hMPV and influenza viruses and bacteraemia of all causes in hospitalized children at a single paediatric centre in the United States. Large multicentre studies are needed to confirm these findings and to elucidate the mechanisms by which hMPV potentiates the virulence and invasive capacity of diverse bacteria.

Project description:BackgroundThe survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases.MethodsRespiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient's specimen date with a range of lag periods.ResultsThe seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989-2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1-7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2-2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle.ConclusionsThe dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19.