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Positive and Negative Peace as Predictors of Pandemic Preparedness: Evidence from a Micro- and Macro-Level Investigation During the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has generated unprecedented human loss and financial difficulties worldwide. In line with recent calls for social sciences to help collective efforts to address COVID-19, we investigated the link between peace and pandemic preparedness, advancing the literatures on negative (i.e., absence of direct violence) and positive peace (i.e., absence of structural violence and presence of equality) and governments' crisis preparedness as well as crisis relief efforts. Two studies tested whether both positive and negative peace predict pandemic preparedness, operationalized as COVID-19 tests, cases, and positivity rates, during the onset of the pandemic. Study 1 did so at the national level across 155 countries; Study 2 did so at a local level, across 3144 counties within the United States. Even after controlling for population size, population density, GDP, and amount of air travel, higher levels of both negative and positive peace predicted a greater number of COVID-19 tests per one million people, fewer overall COVID-19 cases, and a lower positivity rate. These findings point to the possibility that by promoting peace, governments and the international community could potentially become better prepared to handle future pandemics and other crises.

SUBMITTER: Syropoulos S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8447205 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Very little research has assessed how measures of negative and positive affect (NA and PA) derived from assessments at multiple time points per day (e.g., via ecological momentary assessment [EMA]), as opposed to questionnaires that rely on recall over a longer period, are related to levels of peripheral inflammation. We examined how different indicators of NA and PA predicted concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and seven peripheral inflammatory cytokines (IL-1?, IL-6, TNF-?, IL-8, IL-4, IL-10, and IFN-?) that were examined in the form of an inflammatory composite. A community-based sample of 220 adults (62% Black/African-American and 25% Hispanic/Latino; aged 25-65; 65% female) completed questionnaires at baseline (including recalled affect "over the past month") and then provided EMA reports 5x/day for 14?days. Blood was drawn from each participant after completion of EMA and used to determine plasma levels of CRP and cytokines. Analyses examined if indicators of affect predicted inflammation, controlling for age, gender, body mass index, education, health conditions, and statin use. Neither recalled NA or PA nor momentary NA or PA (aggregated across the 14?days of EMA) were significantly associated with the cytokine composite or CRP. Negative mood more proximal to the blood draw (i.e., aggregated momentary NA in week 2 of EMA) was associated with the cytokine composite but not CRP. Exploratory moderation analyses revealed that the cytokine composite was also associated with PA in week 2 for men only, and with recalled NA for those with lower education. Exploratory analyses around temporal dynamics suggested that the timing of NA measurement relative to the blood draw mattered: Specifically, there were stronger trends of association between momentary NA and inflammatory cytokines when NA was assessed closer in time to blood collection. Future investigation of the relevance of temporal proximity and other measurement details may improve understanding of how affect relates to inflammation.

Dataset Information

Positive and Negative Peace as Predictors of Pandemic Preparedness: Evidence from a Micro- and Macro-Level Investigation During the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

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