Dataset Information

Using test positivity and reported case rates to estimate state-level COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Accurate estimates of infection prevalence and seroprevalence are essential for evaluating and informing public health responses and vaccination coverage needed to address the ongoing spread of COVID-19 in each United States (U.S.) state. However, reliable, timely data based on representative population sampling are unavailable, and reported case and test positivity rates are highly biased. A simple data-driven Bayesian semi-empirical modeling framework was developed and used to evaluate state-level prevalence and seroprevalence of COVID-19 using daily reported cases and test positivity ratios. The model was calibrated to and validated using published state-wide seroprevalence data, and further compared against two independent data-driven mathematical models. The prevalence of undiagnosed COVID-19 infections is found to be well-approximated by a geometrically weighted average of the positivity rate and the reported case rate. Our model accurately fits state-level seroprevalence data from across the U.S. Prevalence estimates of our semi-empirical model compare favorably to those from two data-driven epidemiological models. As of December 31, 2020, we estimate nation-wide a prevalence of 1.4% [Credible Interval (CrI): 1.0%-1.9%] and a seroprevalence of 13.2% [CrI: 12.3%-14.2%], with state-level prevalence ranging from 0.2% [CrI: 0.1%-0.3%] in Hawaii to 2.8% [CrI: 1.8%-4.1%] in Tennessee, and seroprevalence from 1.5% [CrI: 1.2%-2.0%] in Vermont to 23% [CrI: 20%-28%] in New York. Cumulatively, reported cases correspond to only one third of actual infections. The use of this simple and easy-to-communicate approach to estimating COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence will improve the ability to make public health decisions that effectively respond to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Chiu WA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8448371 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundMany states in the United States have progressed towards legalization of marijuana including decriminalization, medicinal and/or recreational use. We studied the impact of legalization on cannabis-related emergency department visits in states with varying degrees of legalization.MethodsSeventeen healthcare institutions in fifteen states (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington) participated. Cannabinoid immunoassay results and cannabis-related International Classification of Diseases (ninth and tenth versions) codes were obtained for emergency department visits over a 3- to 8-year period during various stages of legalization: no state laws, decriminalized, medical approval before dispensaries, medical dispensaries available, recreational approval before dispensaries and recreational dispensaries available. Trends and monthly rates of cannabinoid immunoassay and cannabis-related International Classification of Diseases code positivity were determined during these legalization periods.ResultsFor most states, there was a significant increase in both cannabinoid immunoassay and International Classification of Diseases code positivity as legalization progressed; however, positivity rates differed. The availability of dispensaries may impact positivity in states with medical and/or recreational approval. In most states with no laws, there was a significant but smaller increase in cannabinoid immunoassay positivity rates.ConclusionsStates may experience an increase in cannabis-related emergency department visits with progression toward marijuana legalization. The differences between states, including those in which no impact was seen, are likely multifactorial and include cultural norms, attitudes of local law enforcement, differing patient populations, legalization in surrounding states, availability of dispensaries, various ordering protocols in the emergency department, and the prevalence of non-regulated cannabis products.

Dataset Information

Using test positivity and reported case rates to estimate state-level COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence in the United States.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets