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Evaluating the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates on college campuses to wastewater surveillance.

ABSTRACT: As college campuses reopened in fall 2020, we saw a large-scale experiment unfold on the efficacy of various strategies to contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Traditional individual surveillance testing via nasal swabs and/or saliva is among the measures that colleges are pursuing to reduce the spread of the virus on campus. Additionally, some colleges are testing wastewater on their campuses for signs of infection, which can provide an early warning signal for campuses to locate COVID-positive individuals. However, a representation of wastewater surveillance has not yet been incorporated into epidemiological models for college campuses, nor has the efficacy of wastewater screening been evaluated relative to traditional individual surveillance testing, within the structure of these models. Here, we implement a new model component for wastewater surveillance within an established epidemiological model for college campuses. We use a hypothetical residential university to evaluate the efficacy of wastewater surveillance for maintaining low infection rates. We find that wastewater sampling with a 1-day lag to initiate individual screening tests, plus completing the subsequent tests within a 4-day period can keep overall infections within 5% of the infection rates seen with traditional individual surveillance testing. Our results also indicate that wastewater surveillance can effectively reduce the number of false positive cases by identifying subpopulations for surveillance testing where infectious individuals are more likely to be found. Through a Monte Carlo risk analysis, we find that surveillance testing that relies solely on wastewater sampling can be fragile against scenarios with high viral reproductive numbers and high rates of infection of campus community members by outside sources. These results point to the practical importance of additional surveillance measures to limit the spread of the virus on campus and the necessity of a proactive response to the initial signs of outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Wong TE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8452452 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The shedding of pathogens by infected humans enables the use of sewage monitoring to conduct wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). Although most WBE studies use data from large sewage treatment plants, timely data from smaller catchments are needed for targeted public health action. Traditional sampling methods, like autosamplers or grab sampling, are not conducive to quick ad hoc deployments and high-resolution monitoring at these smaller scales. This study develops and validates a cheap and easily deployable passive sampler unit, made from readily available consumables, with relevance to the COVID-19 pandemic but with broader use for WBE. We provide the first evidence that passive samplers can be used to detect SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater from populations with low prevalence of active COVID-19 infections (0.034 to 0.34 per 10,000), demonstrating their ability for early detection of infections at three different scales (lot, suburb, and city). A side by side evaluation of passive samplers (n = 245) and traditionally collected wastewater samples (n = 183) verified that the passive samplers were sensitive at detecting SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. On all 33 days where we directly compared traditional and passive sampling techniques, at least one passive sampler was positive when the average SARS-CoV-2 concentration in the wastewater equaled or exceeded the quantification limit of 1.8 gene copies per mL (n = 7). Moreover, on 13 occasions where wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations were less than 1.8 gene copies per mL, one or more passive samplers were positive. Finally, there was a statistically significant (p < 0.001) positive relationship between the concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and the levels found on the passive samplers, indicating that with further evaluation, these devices could yield semi-quantitative results in the future. Passive samplers have the potential for wide use in WBE with attractive feasibility attributes of cost, ease of deployment at small-scale locations, and continuous sampling of the wastewater. Further research will focus on the optimization of laboratory methods including elution and extraction and continued parallel deployment and evaluations in a variety of settings to inform optimal use in wastewater surveillance.

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Evaluating the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates on college campuses to wastewater surveillance.

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