Optimal Reopening Pathways With COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout and Emerging Variants of Concern.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Xiao Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8452896 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundMore contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged around the world, sparking concerns about impending surge in cases and severe outcomes. Despite the development of effective vaccines, rollout has been slow. We evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccine distribution on curbing the disease burden of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.MethodsWe used an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination to simulate the spread of novel variants with S-Gene Target Failure (SGTF) in addition to the original strain. We incorporated age-specific risk and contact patterns and implemented a two-dose vaccination campaign in accord with CDC-recommended prioritization. As a base case, we projected hospitalizations and deaths at a daily vaccination rate of 1 million doses in the United States (US) and compared with accelerated campaigns in which daily doses were expanded to 1.5, 2, 2.5, or 3 million.FindingsWe found that at a vaccination rate of 1 million doses per day, an emergent SGTF variant that is 20-70% more transmissible than the original variant would become dominant within 2 to 9 weeks, accounting for as much as 99% of cases at the outbreak peak. Our results show that accelerating vaccine delivery would substantially reduce severe health outcomes. For a SGTF with 30% higher transmissibility, increasing vaccine doses from 1 to 3 million per day would avert 152,048 (95% CrI: 134,772-168,696) hospitalizations and 48,448 (95% CrI: 42,042-54,285) deaths over 300 days. Accelerated vaccination would also prevent additional COVID-19 waves that would otherwise be fuelled by waning adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).InterpretationWe found that the current pace of vaccine rollout is insufficient to prevent the exacerbation of the pandemic that will be attributable to the novel, more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants. Accelerating the vaccination rate should be a public health priority for averting the expected surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths that would be associated with widespread dissemination of the SGTF variants. Our results underscore the need to bolster the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, to rapidly expand vaccination priority groups and distribution sites.
| S-EPMC8072134 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 vaccines are one of the most effective preventive strategies for containing the pandemic. Having a better understanding of the public's conceptions of COVID-19 vaccines may aid in the effort to promptly and thoroughly vaccinate the community. However, because no empirical research has yet fully explored the public's vaccine awareness through sentiment-based topic modeling, little is known about the evolution of public attitude since the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.ObjectiveIn this study, we specifically focused on tweets about COVID-19 vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson) after vaccines became publicly available. We aimed to explore the overall sentiments and topics of tweets about COVID-19 vaccines, as well as how such sentiments and main concerns evolved.MethodsWe collected 1,122,139 tweets related to COVID-19 vaccines from December 14, 2020, to April 30, 2021, using Twitter's application programming interface. We removed retweets and duplicate tweets to avoid data redundancy, which resulted in 857,128 tweets. We then applied sentiment-based topic modeling by using the compound score to determine sentiment polarity and the coherence score to determine the optimal topic number for different sentiment polarity categories. Finally, we calculated the topic distribution to illustrate the topic evolution of main concerns.ResultsOverall, 398,661 (46.51%) were positive, 204,084 (23.81%) were negative, 245,976 (28.70%) were neutral, 6899 (0.80%) were highly positive, and 1508 (0.18%) were highly negative sentiments. The main topics of positive and highly positive tweets were planning for getting vaccination (251,979/405,560, 62.13%), getting vaccination (76,029/405,560, 18.75%), and vaccine information and knowledge (21,127/405,560, 5.21%). The main concerns in negative and highly negative tweets were vaccine hesitancy (115,206/205,592, 56.04%), extreme side effects of the vaccines (19,690/205,592, 9.58%), and vaccine supply and rollout (17,154/205,592, 8.34%). During the study period, negative sentiment trends were stable, while positive sentiments could be easily influenced. Topic heatmap visualization demonstrated how main concerns changed during the current widespread vaccination campaign.ConclusionsTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate public COVID-19 vaccine awareness and awareness trends on social media with automated sentiment-based topic modeling after vaccine rollout. Our results can help policymakers and research communities track public attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines and help them make decisions to promote the vaccination campaign.
| S-EPMC8827037 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since early March 2020, government agencies have utilized a wide variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and have struggled to determine when it is appropriate to return to in-person activities after an outbreak is detected. At many universities, fundamental issues related to understanding the spread of the disease (e.g. the transmission rate), the ability of administrators to respond quickly enough by closing when there is a sudden rise in cases, and how to make a decision on when to reopen remains a concern. Surveillance testing strategies have been implemented in some places, and those test outcomes have dictated whether to reopen, to simultaneously monitor community spread, and/or to isolate discovered cases. However, the question remains as to when it is safe to reopen and how much testing is required to remain safely open while keeping infection numbers low. Here, we propose an extension of the classic SIR model to investigate reopening strategies for a fixed testing strategy, based on feedback from testing results. Specifically, we close when a predefined proportion of the population becomes infected, and later reopen when that infected proportion decreases below a predefined threshold. A valuable outcome of our approach is that our reopening strategies are robust to variation in almost all model parameters, including transmission rates, which can be extremely difficult to determine as they typically differ between variants, location, vaccination status, etc. Thus, these strategies can be, in theory, translated over to new variants in different regions of the world. Examples of robust feedback strategies for high disease transmission and a fixed testing capacity include (1) a single long lock down followed by a single long in-person period, and (2) multiple shorter lock downs followed by multiple shorter in-person periods. The utility of this approach of having multiple strategies is that administrators of universities, schools, business, etc. can use a strategy that is best adapted for their own functionality.
| S-EPMC9645599 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As the world tries to cope with the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and emerging variants of the virus, COVID-19 vaccination has become an even more critical tool toward normalcy. The effectiveness of the vaccination program and specifically vaccine uptake and coverage, however, is a function of an individual's knowledge and individual opinion about the disease and available vaccines. This study investigated the knowledge, attitudes, and resulting community practice(s) associated with the new COVID-19 variants and vaccines in Bangladesh, Colombia, India, Malaysia, Zimbabwe, and the USA. A cross-sectional web-based Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) survey was administered to respondents living in six different countries using a structured and multi-item questionnaire. Survey questions were translated into English, Spanish, and Malay to accommodate the local language in each country. Associations between KAP and a range of explanatory variables were assessed using univariate and multiple logistic regression. A total of 781 responses were included in the final analysis. The Knowledge score mean was 24 (out of 46), Attitude score 28.9 (out of 55), and Practice score 7.3 (out of 11). Almost 65% of the respondents reported being knowledgeable about COVID-19 variants and vaccination, 55% reported a positive attitude toward available COVID-19 vaccines, and 85% reported engaging in practices that supported COVID-19 vaccination. From the multiple logistic models, we found post-graduate education (AOR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.23-2.74) and an age range 45-54 years (AOR = 5.81, 95% CI: 2.30-14.69) to be significantly associated with reported COVID-19 knowledge. In addition, positive Attitude scores were associated with respondents living in Zimbabwe (AOR = 4.49, 95% CI: 2.04-9.90) and positive Practice scores were found to be associated with people from India (AOR = 3.68, 95% CI: 1.15-11.74) and high school education (AOR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.07-4.38). This study contributes to the identification of socio-demographic factors associated with poor knowledge, attitudes, and practices relating to COVID-19 variants and vaccines. It presents an opportunity for collaboration with diverse communities to address COVID-19 misinformation and common sources of vaccine hesitancy (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, and practices).
| S-EPMC8614952 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing health disparities and disproportionately affected vulnerable individuals and communities (e.g., low-income, precariously housed or in institutional settings, racialized, migrant, refugee, 2SLBGTQ+). Despite their higher risk of infection and sub-optimal access to healthcare, Canada's COVID-19 vaccination strategy focused primarily on age, as well as medical and occupational risk factors.MethodsWe conducted a mixed-methods constant comparative qualitative analysis of epidemiological data from a national database of COVID-19 cases and vaccine coverage in four Canadian jurisdictions. Jurisdictional policies, policy updates, and associated press releases were collected from government websites, and qualitative data were collected through 34 semi-structured interviews of key informants from nine Canadian jurisdictions. Interviews were coded and analyzed for themes and patterns.ResultsCOVID-19 vaccines were rolled out in Canada in three phases, each accompanied by specific challenges. Vaccine delivery systems typically featured large-venue mass immunization sites that presented a variety of barriers for those from vulnerable communities. The engagement and targeted outreach that featured in the later phases were driven predominantly by the efforts of community organizations and primary care providers, with limited support from provincial governments.ConclusionsWhile COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Canada is largely considered a success, such an interpretation is shaped by the metrics chosen. Vaccine delivery systems across Canada need substantial improvements to ensure optimal uptake and equitable access for all. Our findings suggest a more equitable model for vaccine delivery featuring early establishment of local barrier-free clinics, culturally safe and representative environment, as well as multi-lingual assistance, among other vulnerability-sensitive elements.
| S-EPMC9803301 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The promise of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is fulfilled and vaccination campaigns have started worldwide. However, the fight against the pandemic is far from over. Here, we propose an age-structured compartmental model to study the interplay of disease transmission, vaccines rollout, and behavioural dynamics. We investigate, via in-silico simulations, individual and societal behavioural changes, possibly induced by the start of the vaccination campaigns, and manifested as a relaxation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We explore different vaccination rollout speeds, prioritization strategies, vaccine efficacy, as well as multiple behavioural responses. We apply our model to six countries worldwide (Egypt, Peru, Serbia, Ukraine, Canada, and Italy), selected to sample diverse socio-demographic and socio-economic contexts. To isolate the effects of age-structures and contacts patterns from the particular pandemic history of each location, we first study the model considering the same hypothetical initial epidemic scenario in all countries. We then calibrate the model using real epidemiological and mobility data for the different countries. Our findings suggest that early relaxation of safe behaviours can jeopardize the benefits brought by the vaccine in the short term: a fast vaccine distribution and policies aimed at keeping high compliance of individual safe behaviours are key to mitigate disease resurgence.
| S-EPMC8457458 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has overwhelmed the healthcare and economy of the world, with emerging new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) posing an everlasting threat to humanity. While most COVID-19 vaccines provide adequate protective immunological response against the original SARS-CoV-2 variant, there is a pressing need to understand their biological and clinical responses. Recent evidence suggests that some of the new variants of SARS-CoV-2 evade the protection conferred by the existing vaccines, which may impede the ongoing efforts to expedite the vaccination programs worldwide. These concerns have also highlighted the importance of a pan-COVID-19 vaccine, which is currently in the making. Thus, it is imperative to have a better molecular and clinical understanding of the various COVID-19 vaccines and their immunological trajectory against any emerging variant of concerns (VOCs) in particular to break this vicious cycle. Furthermore, other treatment regimens based on cellular therapies and monoclonal antibodies should be explored systematically as an alternative and readily available option considering the possibility of the emergence of more virulent SARS-CoV-2 mutants. In this review, we shed light on the various molecular mechanisms and clinical responses of COVID-19 vaccines. Importantly, we review the recent findings of their long-term immune protection and efficacy against emerging VOCs. Considering that other targeted and effective treatments will complement vaccine therapy, we provide a comprehensive understanding of the role of cell-based therapies, monoclonal antibodies, and immunomodulatory agents as alternative and readily available treatment modalities against any emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant.
| S-EPMC8734653 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vaccines have reduced the burden of COVID-19 disease in the UK since their introduction in December 2020. At the time of their introduction, it was unclear the extent to which COVID-19 vaccines would be accepted and how spatial variations in uptake would emerge, driven by socio-demographic characteristics. In this study, data from a large-scale cross-sectional study of over 17,000 adults, surveyed in September and October 2020, was used to provide sub-national forecasts of COVID-19 vaccine uptake across the UK. Bayesian multilevel regression and poststratification was deployed to forecast COVID-19 vaccine acceptance before vaccine rollout across 174 regions of the UK. Although it was found that a majority of the UK adult population would likely take the vaccine, there were substantial heterogeneities in uptake intent across the UK. Large urban areas, including London and North West England, females, Black or Black British ethnicities, and Polish speakers were among the least likely to state an intent to vaccinate. These predicted spatial trends were validated by comparison to observed observed COVID-19 vaccine uptake in late 2021. The methodological approaches deployed in this validated forecasting study may be replicable for the prediction of routine childhood immunisation uptake. Given recent pandemic-induced disruptions to routine immunisation systems, reliable sub-national forecasts of vaccine uptake may provide policymakers and stakeholders early warning signals of potential vaccine confidence issues.
| S-EPMC9746557 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in December 2019, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the number of confirmed infections has risen to more than 242 million worldwide, with nearly 5 million deaths. Currently, nine Covid-19 vaccine candidates based on the original Wuhan-Hu-1 strain are at the forefront of vaccine research. All nine had an efficacy over 50% against symptomatic Covid-19 disease: NVX-CoV2373 (∼96%), BNT162b2 (∼95%), mRNA-1273 (∼94%), Sputnik V (∼92%), AZD1222 (∼81%), BBIBP-CorV (∼79%), Covaxin (∼78%), Ad26.CoV.S (∼66%) and CoronaVac (∼51%). However, vaccine efficacy (VE) can be jeopardised by the rapid emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) that could escape from neutralising antibodies and/or cell-mediated immunity. Rare adverse events have also been reported soon after administration of viral vector and mRNA vaccines. Although many Covid-19 vaccines have been developed, additional effective vaccines are still needed to meet the global demand. Promising Covid-19 vaccines such as WIBP-CorV, AD5-nCOV, ZyCoV-D, CVnCoV, EpiVacCorona and ZF2001 have advanced to clinical studies. This review describes the most relevant mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, discusses VE against VOCs, presents rare adverse events after Covid-19 vaccination and introduces some promising Covid-19 vaccine candidates.
| S-EPMC8646685 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding vaccination intention during early vaccination rollout in Canada can help the government's efforts in vaccination education and outreach.MethodPanel members age 18 and over from the nationally representative Angus Reid Forum were invited to complete an online survey about their experience with COVID-19, including their intention to get vaccinated. Respondents were asked "When a vaccine against the coronavirus becomes available to you, will you get vaccinated or not?" Having no intention to vaccinate was defined as choosing "No - I will not get a coronavirus vaccination" as a response. Odds ratios and predicted probabilities are reported for no vaccine intentionality in demographic groups.Findings14,621 panel members completed the survey. Having no intention to vaccinate against COVID-19 is relatively low overall (9%) with substantial variation among demographic groups. Being a resident of Alberta (predicted probability = 15%; OR 0.58 [95%CI 0.14-2.24]), aged 40-59 (predicted probability = 12%; OR 0.87 [0.78-0.97]), identifying as a visible minority (predicted probability = 15%; OR 0.56 [0.37-0.84]), having some college level education or lower (predicted probability = 14%) and living in households of at least five members (predicted probability = 13%; OR 0.82 [0.76-0.88]) are related to lower vaccination intention.InterpretationThe study identifies population groups with greater and lesser intention to vaccinate in Canada. As the Canadian COVID-19 vaccination effort continues, policymakers may use this information to focus outreach, education, and other efforts on the latter groups, which also have had higher risks for contracting and dying from COVID-19.FundingPfizer Global Medical, Unity Health Foundation, Canadian COVID-19 Immunity Task Force.
| S-EPMC8390972 | biostudies-literature