Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted tourism and leisure activities worldwide, especially in the hospitality sector. This paper has a conceptual and empirical motivation based on two objectives. First, it identifies several of the primary factors behind the vulnerability of tourism to COVID-19 (tourism dependency, market structure, the supply of rural accommodation, and health incidence of the pandemic). Second, it constructs a vulnerability index to COVID-19 using Spain and its 50 provinces as case. The main results obtained indicate that tourism to the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, the provinces of the Mediterranean coast, and Madrid, in which the state capital is located, present higher vulnerability to COVID-19, yet with different underlying factors. Our methodology and results are of interest to policymakers in terms of the short- and medium-term strategic policies that can be employed to mitigate current and future shocks.
Project description:To prevent the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), many countries around the world went into lockdown and imposed unprecedented containment measures. These restrictions progressively produced changes to social behavior and global mobility patterns, evidently disrupting social and economic activities. Here, using maritime traffic data collected via a global network of Automatic Identification System (AIS) receivers, we analyze the effects that the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures had on the shipping industry, which accounts alone for more than 80% of the world trade. We rely on multiple data-driven maritime mobility indexes to quantitatively assess ship mobility in a given unit of time. The mobility analysis here presented has a worldwide extent and is based on the computation of: Cumulative Navigated Miles (CNM) of all ships reporting their position and navigational status via AIS, number of active and idle ships, and fleet average speed. To highlight significant changes in shipping routes and operational patterns, we also compute and compare global and local vessel density maps. We compare 2020 mobility levels to those of previous years assuming that an unchanged growth rate would have been achieved, if not for COVID-19. Following the outbreak, we find an unprecedented drop in maritime mobility, across all categories of commercial shipping. With few exceptions, a generally reduced activity is observable from March to June 2020, when the most severe restrictions were in force. We quantify a variation of mobility between -5.62 and -13.77% for container ships, between +2.28 and -3.32% for dry bulk, between -0.22 and -9.27% for wet bulk, and between -19.57 and -42.77% for passenger traffic. The presented study is unprecedented for the uniqueness and completeness of the employed AIS dataset, which comprises a trillion AIS messages broadcast worldwide by 50,000 ships, a figure that closely parallels the documented size of the world merchant fleet.
Project description:As manta rays face increased threats from targeted and bycatch fisheries, manta ray watching tourism, if managed properly, may present an attractive economic alternative to consumptive use of these species. Both species in the genus Manta (Manta alfredi and Manta birostris) are classified by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List as species Vulnerable to extinction in the wild, and are considered unsustainable as fisheries resources due to their conservative life history characteristics, which considerably reduce their ability to recover population numbers when depleted. Utilising dive operator surveys, Internet research, and a literature review, this study provides the first global estimate of the direct economic impact of manta ray watching tourism and examines the potential socio-economic benefits of non-consumptive manta ray watching operations relative to consumptive use of manta rays as a fishery resource. In the 23 countries in which manta ray watching operations meeting our criteria were identified, we estimated direct revenue to dive operators from manta ray dives and snorkels at over US$73 million annually and direct economic impact, including associated tourism expenditures, of US$140 million annually. Ten countries account for almost 93% of the global revenue estimate, specifically Japan, Indonesia, the Maldives, Mozambique, Thailand, Australia, Mexico, United States, Federated States of Micronesia and Palau. In many of the areas where directed fisheries for manta rays are known to occur, these activities overlap with manta ray tourism sites or the migratory range of the mantas on which these sites depend, and are likely to be unsustainable and detrimental to manta ray watching tourism.
Project description:Screening programs have been associated with a substantial reduction in colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality through endoscopic resection of preneoplastic lesions and detection of early-stage invasive cancers.
In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared as a pandemic the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2. Since then, the SARS-CoV-2 have never stopped spreading, causing an unprecedented situation with highly restrictive considerations to be adopted by the majority of countries worldwide.
Health-care facilities have been making an enormous effort to assist patients affected by COVID-19, while adopting measures to maintain a safe environment for patients and healthcare professionals. As a result, the usual workflow in endoscopy departments changed dramatically, leading to an increase in cancelled procedures, probably increasing the future burden of Colorectal Cancer due to delays in diagnosis.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Worldwide, different strategies have been chosen to face the COVID-19-patient surge, often affecting access to health care for other patients. This observational study aimed to investigate whether the standard of burn care changed globally during the pandemic, and whether country´s income, geographical location, COVID-19-transmission pattern, and levels of specialization of the burn units affected reallocation of resources and access to burn care. METHODS:The Burn Care Survey is a questionnaire developed to collect information on the capacity to provide burn care by burn units around the world, before and during the pandemic. The survey was distributed between September and October 2020. McNemar`s test analyzed differences between services provided before and during the pandemic, χ2 or Fisher's exact test differences between groups. Multivariable logistic regression analyzed the independent effect of different factors on keeping the burn units open during the pandemic. RESULTS:The survey was completed by 234 burn units in 43 countries. During the pandemic, presence of burn surgeons did not change (p = 0.06), while that of anesthetists and dedicated nursing staff was reduced (<0.01), and so did the capacity to manage patients in all age groups (p = 0.04). Use of telemedicine was implemented (p < 0.01), collaboration between burn centers was not. Burn units in LMICs and LICs were more likely to be closed, after adjustment for other factors. CONCLUSIONS:During the pandemic, most burn units were open, although availability of standard resources diminished worldwide. The use of telemedicine increased, suggesting the implementation of new strategies to manage burns. Low income was independently associated with reduced access to burn care.
Project description:While the COVID-19 pandemic presents a global challenge, the U.S. response places substantial responsibility for both decision-making and communication on local health authorities. To better support counties and municipalities, we integrated baseline data on relevant community vulnerabilities with dynamic data on local infection rates and interventions into a Pandemic Vulnerability Index (PVI). The PVI presents a visual synthesis of county-level vulnerability indicators that can be compared in a regional, state, or nationwide context. We describe use of the PVI, supporting epidemiological modeling and machine-learning forecasts, and deployment of an interactive, web Dashboard. The Dashboard facilitates decision-making and communication among government officials, scientists, community leaders, and the public to enable more effective and coordinated action to combat the pandemic.
Project description:Study designThe COrona VIrus Disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted craniomaxillofacial (CMF) surgeons practice worldwide. We implemented a cross-sectional study and enrolled a sample of CMF surgeons who completed a survey.ObjectiveTo measure the impact that COVID-19 has had on CMF surgeons by (1) identifying variations that may exist by geographic region and specialty and (2) measuring access to adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) and identify factors associated with limited access to adequate PPE.MethodsPrimary outcome variable was availability of adequate PPE for health-care workers (HCWs) in the front line and surgeons. Descriptive and analytic statistics were computed. Level of statistical significance was set at P < .05. Binary logistic regression models were created to identify variables associated with PPE status (adequate or inadequate).ResultsMost of the respondents felt that hospitals did not provide adequate PPE to the HCWs (57.3%) with significant regional differences (P = .04). Most adequate PPE was available to surgeons in North America with the least offered in Africa. Differences in PPE adequacy per region (P < .001) and per country (P < .001) were significant. In Africa and South America, regions reporting previous virus outbreaks, the differences in access to adequate PPE evaporated compared to Europe (P = .18 and P = .15, respectively).ConclusionThe impact of COVID-19 among CMF surgeons is global and adversely affects both clinical practice and personal lives of CMF surgeons. Future surveys should capture what the mid- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis will look like.
Project description:Background & aimsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs.MethodsPreviously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or 'no delay' scenario and a '1-year delay' scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual country-level model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the 'no-delay' estimates from the '1-year delay' estimates.ResultsThe '1-year delay' scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 43,800-49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600-79,400) excess liver-related deaths, relative to the 'no-delay' scenario globally, from 2020 to 2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, whereas most excess hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths would be among high-income countries.ConclusionsThe impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. To mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so.Lay summaryCOVID-19 has resulted in many hepatitis elimination programs slowing or stopping altogether. A 1-year delay in hepatitis diagnosis and treatment could result in an additional 44,800 liver cancers and 72,300 deaths from HCV globally by 2030. Countries have committed to hepatitis elimination by 2030, so attention should shift back to hepatitis programming as soon as it becomes appropriate to do so.
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic may cause a possible rise in incidents associated with mental health issues which may lead to suicidal behaviors such as suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and actual suicide worldwide. COVID-19, manifested by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) in affected people, has been declared by the World Health Organization to be a public health emergency of international concern. The unpredictable consequences and uncertainty surrounding public safety, quarantine and isolation, fake news, and myths about COVID-19, particularly abounding in social media, may negatively impact an individual's mental health, causing depression, anxiety, phobia, and traumatic stress. It has been established that around 90% of global suicides are individuals who suffer from depression. This has been similarly reported to have been occurring in the past epidemics and pandemics.
Project description:Simultaneously tracking the global impact of COVID-19 is challenging because of regional variation in resources and reporting. Leveraging self-reported survey outcomes via an existing international social media network has the potential to provide standardized data streams to support monitoring and decision-making worldwide, in real time, and with limited local resources. The University of Maryland Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (UMD-CTIS), in partnership with Facebook, has invited daily cross-sectional samples from the social media platform's active users to participate in the survey since its launch on April 23, 2020. We analyzed UMD-CTIS survey data through December 20, 2020, from 31,142,582 responses representing 114 countries/territories weighted for nonresponse and adjusted to basic demographics. We show consistent respondent demographics over time for many countries/territories. Machine Learning models trained on national and pooled global data verified known symptom indicators. COVID-like illness (CLI) signals were correlated with government benchmark data. Importantly, the best benchmarked UMD-CTIS signal uses a single survey item whereby respondents report on CLI in their local community. In regions with strained health infrastructure but active social media users, we show it is possible to define COVID-19 impact trajectories using a remote platform independent of local government resources. This syndromic surveillance public health tool is the largest global health survey to date and, with brief participant engagement, can provide meaningful, timely insights into the global COVID-19 pandemic at a local scale.