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Development and Validation of a Nonremission Risk Prediction Model in First-Episode Psychosis: An Analysis of 2 Longitudinal Studies.

ABSTRACT: Psychosis is a major mental illness with first onset in young adults. The prognosis is poor in around half of the people affected, and difficult to predict. The few tools available to predict prognosis have major weaknesses which limit their use in clinical practice. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of symptom nonremission in first-episode psychosis. Our development cohort consisted of 1027 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2005 and 2010 from 14 early intervention services across the National Health Service in England. Our validation cohort consisted of 399 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2006 and 2009 from a further 11 English early intervention services. The one-year nonremission rate was 52% and 54% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a risk prediction model for nonremission, which was externally validated. The prediction model showed good discrimination C-statistic of 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) and adequate calibration with intercept alpha of 0.12 (0.02, 0.22) and slope beta of 0.98 (0.85, 1.11). Our model improved the net-benefit by 15% at a risk threshold of 50% compared to the strategy of treating all, equivalent to 15 more detected nonremitted first-episode psychosis individuals per 100 without incorrectly classifying remitted cases. Once prospectively validated, our first episode psychosis prediction model could help identify patients at increased risk of nonremission at initial clinical contact.

SUBMITTER: Leighton SP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8458108 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Neurocognitive deficits are a core feature of psychotic disorders, but it is unclear whether they affect all individuals uniformly. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to synthesize the evidence on the magnitude, progression, and variability of neurocognitive functioning in individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP). A multistep literature search was conducted in several databases up to November 1, 2022. Original studies reporting on neurocognitive functioning in FEP were included. The researchers extracted the data and clustered the neurocognitive tasks according to the seven Measurement and Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (MATRICS) domains and six additional domains. Random-effect model meta-analyses, assessment of publication biases and study quality, and meta-regressions were conducted. The primary effect size reported was Hedges g of (1) neurocognitive functioning in individuals at FEP measuring differences with healthy control (HC) individuals or (2) evolution of neurocognitive impairment across study follow-up intervals. Of 30,384 studies screened, 54 were included, comprising 3,925 FEP individuals and 1,285 HC individuals. Variability analyses indicated greater variability in FEP compared to HC at baseline and follow-up. We found better neurocognitive performance in the HC group at baseline and follow-up but no differences in longitudinal neurocognitive changes between groups. Across the 13 domains, individuals with FEP showed improvement from baseline in all studied domains, except for visual memory. Metaregressions showed some differences in several of the studied domains. The findings suggest that individuals with FEP have marked cognitive impairment, but there is greater variability in cognitive functioning in patients than in HC. This suggests that subgroups of individuals suffer severe disease-related cognitive impairments, whereas others may be much less affected. While these impairments seem stable in the medium term, certain indicators may suggest potential further decline in the long term for a specific subgroup of individuals, although more research is needed to clarify this. Overall, this study highlights the need for tailored neurocognitive interventions for individuals with FEP based on their specific deficits and progression.

Project description:BackgroundThough olfactory deficits are well-documented in schizophrenia, fewer studies have examined olfactory performance profiles across the psychosis spectrum. The current study examined odor identification, discrimination, and detection threshold performance in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, bipolar disorder with psychotic features, major depression with psychotic features, and other psychotic conditions.MethodFEP patients (n = 97) and healthy adults (n = 98) completed birhinal assessments of odor identification, discrimination, and detection threshold sensitivity for lyral and citralva. Participants also completed measures of anticipatory pleasure, anhedonia, and empathy. Differences in olfactory performances were assessed between FEP patients and controls and within FEP subgroups. Sex-stratified post hoc analyses were employed for a complete analysis of sex differences. Relationships between self-report measures and olfactory scores were also examined.ResultsIndividuals with psychosis had poorer scores across all olfactory measures when compared to the control group. Within the psychosis cohort, patients with schizophrenia-associated psychosis had poorer odor identification, discrimination, and citralva detection threshold scores relative to controls. In schizophrenia patients, greater olfactory disturbance was associated with increased negative symptomatology, greater self-reported anhedonia, and lower self-reported anticipatory pleasure. Patients with mood-associated psychosis performed comparable to controls though men and women in this cohort showed differential olfactory profiles.ConclusionsThese findings indicate that olfactory deficits extend beyond measures of odor identification in FEP with greater deficits observed in schizophrenia-related subgroups of psychosis. Studies examining whether greater olfactory dysfunction confers greater risk for developing schizophrenia relative to other forms of psychosis are warranted.

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Development and Validation of a Nonremission Risk Prediction Model in First-Episode Psychosis: An Analysis of 2 Longitudinal Studies.

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