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Advancing estuarine ecological forecasts: seasonal hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay.

ABSTRACT: Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement uncertainty through a flexible Bayesian hierarchical framework. Results illustrate the benefits of (1) adopting forecast metrics and drivers that strike an optimal balance between predictability and relevance to management, (2) incorporating multiple data sources in the calibration data set to separate and propagate different sources of uncertainty, and (3) using the model in scenario mode to probabilistically evaluate the effects of alternative management decisions on future ecosystem state. In the Chesapeake Bay, the subject of this case study, we find that average summer or total annual hypoxia metrics are more predictable than monthly metrics and that measurement error represents an important source of uncertainty. Application of the model in scenario mode suggests that absent watershed management actions over the past decades, long-term average hypoxia would have increased by 7% compared to 1985. Conversely, the model projects that if management goals currently in place to restore the Bay are met, long-term average hypoxia would eventually decrease by 32% with respect to the mid-1980s.

SUBMITTER: Scavia D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8459276 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAnnually reoccurring microbial populations with strong spatial and temporal variations have been identified in estuarine environments, especially in those with long residence time such as the Chesapeake Bay (CB). However, it is unclear how microbial taxa cooccurr and how the inter-taxa networks respond to the strong environmental gradients in the estuaries.ResultsHere, we constructed co-occurrence networks on prokaryotic microbial communities in the CB, which included seasonal samples from seven spatial stations along the salinity gradients for three consecutive years. Our results showed that spatiotemporal variations of planktonic microbiomes promoted differentiations of the characteristics and stability of prokaryotic microbial networks in the CB estuary. Prokaryotic microbial networks exhibited a clear seasonal pattern where microbes were more closely connected during warm season compared to the associations during cold season. In addition, microbial networks were more stable in the lower Bay (ocean side) than those in the upper Bay (freshwater side). Multivariate regression tree (MRT) analysis and piecewise structural equation modeling (SEM) indicated that temperature, salinity and total suspended substances along with nutrient availability, particulate carbon and Chl a, affected the distribution and co-occurrence of microbial groups, such as Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria, Planctomycetes, Proteobacteria, and Verrucomicrobia. Interestingly, compared to the abundant groups (such as SAR11, Saprospiraceae and Actinomarinaceae), the rare taxa including OM60 (NOR5) clade (Gammaproteobacteria), Micrococcales (Actinobacteria), and NS11-12 marine group (Bacteroidetes) contributed greatly to the stability of microbial co-occurrence in the Bay. Modularity and cluster structures of microbial networks varied spatiotemporally, which provided valuable insights into the 'small world' (a group of more interconnected species), network stability, and habitat partitioning/preferences.ConclusionOur results shed light on how estuarine gradients alter the spatiotemporal variations of prokaryotic microbial networks in the estuarine ecosystem, as well as their adaptability to environmental disturbances and co-occurrence network complexity and stability.

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Advancing estuarine ecological forecasts: seasonal hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay.

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