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Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery.

ABSTRACT: The pandemic in 2020 caused an abrupt change in the emission of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors. We estimate the associated change in the aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. To that end, we perform new simulations with the CMIP6 global climate model EC-Earth3. The simulations use the here newly created data for the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated effect on clouds from the simple plumes parameterization (MACv2-SP), based on revised SO₂ and NH₃ emission scenarios. Our results highlight the small impact of the pandemic on the global aerosol radiative forcing in 2020 compared to the CMIP6 scenario SSP2-4.5 of the order of +0.04 Wm^-2, which is small compared to the natural year-to-year variability in the radiation budget. Natural variability also limits the ability to detect a meaningful regional difference in the anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects. We identify the best chances to find a significant change in radiation at the surface during cloud-free conditions for regions that were strongly polluted in the past years. The post-pandemic recovery scenarios indicate a spread in the aerosol forcing of -0.68 to -0.38 Wm^-2 for 2050 relative to the pre-industrial, which translates to a difference of +0.05 to -0.25 Wm^-2 compared to the 2050 baseline from SSP2-4.5. This spread falls within the present-day uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing and the CMIP6 spread in aerosol forcing at the end of the 21st century. We release the new MACv2-SP data for studies on the climate response to the pandemic and the recovery scenarios. Our 2050 forcing estimates suggest that sustained aerosol emission reductions during the post-pandemic recovery cause a stronger climate response than in 2020, i.e., there is a delayed influence of the pandemic on climate.

SUBMITTER: Fiedler S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8462062 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has unpredictably changed the way people live, by influencing their behaviors and beliefs. This article presents the raw data that have been used to investigate how the pandemic affected people's beliefs and expectations about their future. A total of 3991 participants (18-85 years old) were recruited through an online survey using the Qualtrics platform. The data collection was carried out during the Italian lockdown, between April 1st and April 20th, 2020. This survey collected information about psychological and socioeconomic variables related to the COVID-19 emergency. Respondents filled out a battery of questionnaires that included five measures. Three of the measures were specifically developed by the authors: 1. Expected repercussions of COVID-19; 2. Forethought scale; and 3. Perceived financial resources. The two other measures were standardized questionnaires: the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory Short Version (ZTPI-short) and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS). Data from tailored measures on the COVID-19 pandemic reflect people's beliefs about the future, in terms of expectation about the pandemic's effect, estimation of the time needed for the pandemic to resolve, and estimation of how long people could endure the lockdown situation from a financial perspective. The ZTPI questionnaire was administered to measure people's differences in terms of Deviation from Balanced Time Perspective (DBTP). The PANAS questionnaire, instead, was administered to investigate people's differences in terms of emotional mood states. The provided dataset could be useful to other researchers, considering that the data were collected during the lockdown imposed on Italian citizens to face the unprecedented emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the collected data may help to understand how people coped with the pandemic, both from a psychological and socioeconomic perspective. Finally, this dataset can be included in the broad context of data, procedures, and experimental materials that have been used to expand our knowledge in the study of time perspective, beliefs, and emotions.

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Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery.

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