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Predictors of Test Positivity, Mortality, and Seropositivity during the Early Coronavirus Disease Epidemic, Orange County, California, USA.

ABSTRACT: We conducted a detailed analysis of coronavirus disease in a large population center in southern California, USA (Orange County, population 3.2 million), to determine heterogeneity in risks for infection, test positivity, and death. We used a combination of datasets, including a population-representative seroprevalence survey, to assess the actual burden of disease and testing intensity, test positivity, and mortality. In the first month of the local epidemic (March 2020), case incidence clustered in high-income areas. This pattern quickly shifted, and cases next clustered in much higher rates in the north-central area of the county, which has a lower socioeconomic status. Beginning in April 2020, a concentration of reported cases, test positivity, testing intensity, and seropositivity in a north-central area persisted. At the individual level, several factors (e.g., age, race or ethnicity, and ZIP codes with low educational attainment) strongly affected risk for seropositivity and death.

SUBMITTER: Parker DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8462316 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:We describe Titanotaria orangensis (gen. et. sp. nov.), a new species of walrus (odobenid) from the upper Miocene Oso Member of the Capistrano Formation of Orange County, California. This species is important because: (1) It is one of the best-known and latest-surviving tuskless walruses; (2) It raises the number of reported odobenid taxa from the Oso Member to four species making it one of the richest walrus assemblages known (along with the basal Purisima of Northern California); (3) It is just the second record of a tuskless walrus from the same unit as a tusked taxon. Our phylogenetic analysis places T. orangensis as sister to a clade that includes Imagotaria downsi, Pontolis magnus, Dusignathus spp., Gomphotaria pugnax, and Odobeninae. We propose new branch-based phylogenetic definitions for Odobenidae, Odobeninae, and a new node-based name (Neodobenia) for the clade that includes Dusignathus spp., G. pugnax, and Odobeninae. A richness analysis at the 0.1 Ma level that incorporates stratigraphic uncertainty and ghost lineages demonstrates maximum peaks of richness (up to eight or nine coeval lineages) near the base of Odobenidae, Neodobenia, and Odobenini. A more conservative minimum curve demonstrates that standing richness may have been much lower than the maximum lineage richness estimates that are biased by stratigraphic uncertainty. Overall the odobenid fossil record is uneven, with large time slices of the record missing on either side of the Pacific Ocean at some times and biases from the preserved depositional environments at other times. We recognize a provisional timescale for the transition of East Pacific odobenid assemblages that include "basal odobenids" (stem neodobenians) from the Empire and older formations (>7 Ma), to a mixture of basal odobenids and neodobenians from the Capistrano and basal Purisima (7-5 Ma), and then just neodobenians from all younger units (<5 Ma). The large amount of undescribed material will add new taxa and range extensions for existing taxa, which will likely change some of the patterns we describe.

Dataset Information

Predictors of Test Positivity, Mortality, and Seropositivity during the Early Coronavirus Disease Epidemic, Orange County, California, USA.

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