Dataset Information

Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, their influencing factors, and the prediction of DF risks. However, the future risks of this disease under both different socioeconomic development and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios remain little understood.

Methodology and principal findings

In this study, a spatial dataset of gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and land use and land coverage (LULC) in 2050 and 2070 was obtained by simulation based on the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the future climatic data derived from the RCP scenarios were integrated into the Maxent models for predicting the future DF risk in the PRD region. Among all the variables included in this study, socioeconomics factors made the dominant contribution (83% or so) during simulating the current spatial distribution of the DF epidemics in the PRD region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of future DF risk identified by the climatic and socioeconomic (C&S) variables models was more detailed than that of the climatic variables models. Along with global warming and socioeconomic development, the zones with DF high and moderate risk will continue to increase, and the population at high and moderate risk will reach a maximum of 48.47 million (i.e., 63.78% of the whole PRD) under the RCP 4.5/SSP2 in 2070.

Conclusions

The increasing DF risk may be an inevitable public health threat in the PRD region with rapid socioeconomic developments and global warming in the future. Our results suggest that curbs in emissions and more sustainable socioeconomic growth targets offer hope for limiting the future impact of dengue, and effective prevention and control need to continue to be strengthened at the junction of Guangzhou-Foshan, north-central Zhongshan city, and central-western Dongguan city. Our study provides useful clues for relevant hygienic authorities making targeted adapting strategies for this disease.

SUBMITTER: Wu W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8462684 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIndoor environment is complex, with many factors potentially interacting with each other to affect health. However, previous studies have usually focused on effect of a single factor. Assessment of the combined effects of multiple factors can help with understanding the overall health risk.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted among 2,306 school children in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms and diseases were collected along with sociodemographic and residential environmental information. A subset of children (N=987) were measured for their lung function. A random forest algorithm was applied to screen the top-ranked indoor environmental exposure variables and to form a composite index for cumulative risk of indoor pollution (CRIP). Logistic regressions were conducted to analyze the independent effect of single indoor environmental risk factors and the combined effect of CRIP on children's respiratory health. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine the independent and combined effects of indoor environmental exposure on lung function.ResultsWe found that home dampness and molds as well as environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) were significantly and independently associated with increased prevalence of children's respiratory symptoms and diseases and with reduced lung function. A higher CRIP level was significantly associated with increased risk of cough with cold (OR =1.37, 95% CI: 1.05-1.79) and wheeze (OR =2.71, 95% CI: 1.16-6.34). A higher CRIP level was also associated with reduced lung function measured as FVC, FEV1, PEF, FEF25%, FEF25-75% and VC.ConclusionsIn children living in the subtropical region of the Pearl River Delta, home dampness and the presence of mold as well as ETS were individual risk factors for children's respiratory health. The composite CRIP index was associated with respiratory symptoms and lung function, suggesting the utility of this index for predicting the combined effects of multiple risk factors.