Project description:Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, but successful, forecast 5 months in advance of the 26 June 2018 eruption. Subsequent numerical simulations reveal that the evolution of the stress state in the host rock surrounding the Sierra Negra magma system likely controlled eruption timing. While changes in magma reservoir pressure remained modest (<15 MPa), modeled widespread Mohr-Coulomb failure is coincident with the timing of the 26 June 2018 moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake and subsequent eruption. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that the faulting event triggered the 2018 eruption by encouraging tensile failure along the northern portion of the caldera. These findings provide a critical framework for understanding Sierra Negra's eruption cycles and evaluating the potential and timing of future eruptions.
Project description:Earthquakes occur in clusters or sequences that arise from complex triggering mechanisms, but direct measurement of the slow subsurface slip responsible for delayed triggering is rarely possible. We investigate the origins of complexity and its relationship to heterogeneity using an experimental fault with two dominant seismic asperities. The fault is composed of quartz powder, a material common to natural faults, sandwiched between 760 mm long polymer blocks that deform the way 10 meters of rock would behave. We observe periodic repeating earthquakes that transition into aperiodic and complex sequences of fast and slow events. Neighboring earthquakes communicate via migrating slow slip, which resembles creep fronts observed in numerical simulations and on tectonic faults. Utilizing both local stress measurements and numerical simulations, we observe that the speed and strength of creep fronts are highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes, and may serve as on-fault stress meters.
Project description:Mangrove forests provide valuable coastal protection from erosion, habitat for terrestrial and marine species, nursery grounds for commercial fisheries and are economically important for tourism. Galapagos' mangroves usually grow directly on solid lava and fragmented rocky shores, thereby stabilizing the sediment and facilitating colonisation by other plants and many animals. However, until very recently, only inaccurate data described mangrove coverage and its distribution. We mapped mangroves using freely available Google Earth Very High Resolution images based on on-screen classification and compared this method to three semi-automatic classification algorithms. We also analysed mangrove change for the period 2004-2014. We obtained an area of 3657.1 ha of fringing mangrove that covers 35% of the coastline. Eighty percent of mangrove cover is found in Isabela island, and 90% in the western and central south-eastern bioregions. The overall accuracy of mangrove classification was 99.1% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.97 when validated with field data. On-screen digitization was significantly more accurate than other tested methods. From the semi-automated methods, Maximum Likelihood Classification with prior land-sea segmentation yielded the best results. During the 2004-2014 period, mangrove coverage increased 24% mainly by expansion of existing mangroves patches as opposed to generation of new patches. We estimate that mangrove cover and growth are inversely proportional to the geological age of the islands. However, many other factors like nutrients, currents or wave exposure protection might explain this pattern. The precise localization of mangrove cover across the Galapagos islands now enables documenting whether it is changing over time.
Project description:Alien species, one of the biggest threats to natural ecosystems worldwide, are of particular concern for oceanic archipelagos such as Galápagos. To enable more effective management of alien species, we reviewed, collated and analysed all available records of alien species for Galápagos. We also assembled a comprehensive dataset on pathways to and among the Galápagos Islands, including tourist and resident numbers, tourist vessels, their itineraries and visitation sites, aircraft capacity and occupancy, air and sea cargo and biosecurity interceptions. So far, 1,579 alien terrestrial and marine species have been introduced to Galápagos by humans. Of these, 1,476 have become established. Almost half of these were intentional introductions, mostly of plants. Most unintentional introductions arrived on plants and plant associated material, followed by transport vehicles, and commodities (in particular fruit and vegetables). The number, frequency and geographic origin of pathways for the arrival and dispersal of alien species to and within Galápagos have increased over time, tracking closely the increase in human population (residents and tourists) on the islands. Intentional introductions of alien species should decline as biosecurity is strengthened but there is a danger that unintentional introductions will increase further as tourism on Galápagos expands. This unique world heritage site will only retain its biodiversity values if the pathways for invasion are managed effectively.
Project description:The role of disease in regulating populations is controversial, partly owing to the absence of good disease records in historic wildlife populations. We examined birds collected in the Galapagos Islands between 1891 and 1906 that are currently held at the California Academy of Sciences and the Zoologisches Staatssammlung Muenchen, including 3973 specimens representing species from two well-studied families of endemic passerine birds: finches and mockingbirds. Beginning with samples collected in 1899, we observed cutaneous lesions consistent with Avipoxvirus on 226 (6.3%) specimens. Histopathology and viral genotyping of 59 candidate tissue samples from six islands showed that 21 (35.6%) were positive for Avipoxvirus, while alternative diagnoses for some of those testing negative by both methods were feather follicle cysts, non-specific dermatitis, or post mortem fungal colonization. Positive specimens were significantly nonrandomly distributed among islands both for mockingbirds (San Cristobal vs. Espanola, Santa Fe and Santa Cruz) and for finches (San Cristobal and Isabela vs. Santa Cruz and Floreana), and overall highly significantly distributed toward islands that were inhabited by humans (San Cristobal, Isabela, Floreana) vs. uninhabited at the time of collection (Santa Cruz, Santa Fe, Espanola), with only one positive individual on an uninhabited island. Eleven of the positive specimens sequenced successfully were identical at four diagnostic sites to the two canarypox variants previously described in contemporary Galapagos passerines. We conclude that this virus was introduced late in 1890's and was dispersed among islands by a variety of mechanisms, including regular human movements among colonized islands. At present, this disease represents an ongoing threat to the birds on the Galapagos Islands.
Project description:Conservation discourses change rapidly both at global and local scales. To be able to capture these shifts and the relationships between humans and nature, we focused on a local and iconic conservation case: the Galapagos giant tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.). We used the Q methodology to contextualize conservation for science and decision making and to explore the multidimensionality of the conservation concept in Galapagos. The results indicate four prevailing discourses: (1) Multi-actor governance; (2) giant tortoise and ecosystems conservation; (3) community governance; and (4) market and tourism centred. These findings allow us to identify foreseeable points of disagreement, as well as areas of consensus, and to discuss the implication of the findings to address socio-ecological conservation and sustainability challenges. This can help the different involved stakeholders (managers, scientists and local communities) to the design and apply contextualized conservation actions and policies to contribute to a better sustainable management of the archipelago.
Project description:The Galapagos Islands are a global hotspot of environmental change. However, despite their potentially major repercussions, little is known about current and expected changes in regional terrestrial climate variables and sea surface temperatures (SST). Here, by analysing existing meteorological observations and secondary datasets, we find that the Islands have warmed by about 0.6 °C since the early 1980s, while at the same time becoming drier. In fact, the onset of the wet season is currently delayed 20 days. This drying trend may reverse, however, given that future climate projections for the region suggest mean annual precipitation may increase between 20 and 70%. This would also be accompanied by more extreme wet and hot conditions. Further, we find that regional SST has increased by 1.2 °C over the last two decades. These changes will, in turn, translate into deterioration of marine ecosystems and coral, proliferation of invasive species, and damages to human water, food, and infrastructure systems. Future projections, however, may be overestimated due to the poor capacity of climatic models to capture Eastern-Pacific ENSO dynamics. Our findings emphasize the need to design resilient climate adaptation policies that will remain robust in the face of a wide range of uncertain and changing climatic futures.
Project description:Fluid-earthquake interplay, as evidenced by aftershock distributions or earthquake-induced effects on near-surface aquifers, has suggested that earthquakes dynamically affect permeability of the Earth's crust. The connection between the mid-crust and the surface was further supported by instances of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with seismic activity, so far only observed in magmatic context. Here we report spectacular non-volcanic CO2 emissions and hydrothermal disturbances at the front of the Nepal Himalayas following the deadly 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake (moment magnitude Mw = 7.8). The data show unambiguously the appearance, after the earthquake, sometimes with a delay of several months, of CO2 emissions at several sites separated by > 10 kilometres, associated with persistent changes in hydrothermal discharges, including a complete cessation. These observations reveal that Himalayan hydrothermal systems are sensitive to co- and post- seismic deformation, leading to non-stationary release of metamorphic CO2 from active orogens. Possible pre-seismic effects need further confirmation.
Project description:La Palma island is one of the highest potential risks in the volcanic archipelago of the Canaries and therefore it is important to carry out an in-depth study to define its state of unrest. This has been accomplished through the use of satellite radar observations and an original state-of-the-art interpretation technique. Here we show the detection of the onset of volcanic unrest on La Palma island, most likely decades before a potential eruption. We study its current evolution seeing the spatial and temporal changing nature of activity at this potentially dangerous volcano at unprecedented spatial resolutions and long time scales, providing insights into the dynamic nature of the associated volcanic hazard. The geodetic techniques employed here allow tracking of the fluid migration induced by magma injection at depth and identifying the existence of dislocation sources below Cumbre Vieja volcano which could be associated with a future flank failure. Therefore they should continue being monitored using these and other techniques. The results have implications for the monitoring of steep-sided volcanoes at oceanic islands.
Project description:Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) migrate from their breeding grounds in North America to their wintering grounds in South America during the fall each year. A small number of Bobolinks stop temporarily in Galapagos, and potentially carry parasites. On the North American breeding grounds, Bobolinks carry a least two of the four Plasmodium lineages recently detected in resident Galapagos birds. We hypothesized that Bobolinks carried these parasites to Galapagos, where they were bitten by mosquitoes that then transmitted the parasites to resident birds. The haemosporidian parasite community in 44% of the Bobolinks we captured was consistent with those on their breeding grounds. However, the lineages were not those found in Galapagos birds. Our results provide a parasite community key for future monitoring.