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Application of a 72 h National Early Warning Score and Incorporation with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment for Predicting Sepsis Outcomes and Risk Stratification in an Intensive Care Unit: A Derivation and Validation Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: We investigated the best timing for using the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for predicting sepsis outcomes and whether combining the NEWS2 and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) was applicable for mortality risk stratification in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with severe sepsis. All adult patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock criteria between August 2013 and January 2017 with complete clinical parameters and laboratory data were enrolled as a derivation cohort. The primary outcomes were the 7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortalities. Furthermore, another group of patients under the same setting between January 2020 and March 2020 were also enrolled as a validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, we included 699 consecutive adult patients. The 72 h NEWS2 had good discrimination for predicting 7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortalities (AUC: 0.780, 0.724, 0.700, and 0.667, respectively) and was not inferior to the SOFA (AUC: 0.740, 0.680, 0.684, and 0.677, respectively). With the new combined NESO tool, the hazard ratio was 1.854 (1.203-2.950) for the intermediate-risk group and 6.810 (3.927-11.811) for the high-risk group relative to the low-risk group. This finding was confirmed in the validation cohort using a separated survival curve for 28-day mortality. The 72 h NEWS2 alone was non-inferior to the admission SOFA or day 3 SOFA for predicting sepsis outcomes. The NESO tool was found to be useful for 7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortality risk stratification in patients with severe sepsis.

SUBMITTER: Hsu CY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8465191 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The usefulness of the quick Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score in providing bedside criteria for early prediction of poor outcomes in patients with suspected infection remains controversial. We investigated the prognostic performance of a positive qSOFA score outside the intensive care unit (ICU) compared with positive systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria. METHODS:A systematic literature search was performed using MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Data were pooled on the basis of sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic OR. Overall test performance was summarized using a hierarchical summary ROC and the AUC. Meta-regression analysis was used to identify potential sources of bias. RESULTS:We identified 23 studies with a total of 146,551 patients. When predicting in-hospital mortality in our meta-analysis, we identified pooled sensitivities of 0.51 for a positive qSOFA score and 0.86 for positive SIRS criteria, as well as pooled specificities of 0.83 for a positive qSOFA score and 0.29 for positive SIRS criteria. Discrimination for in-hospital mortality had similar AUCs between the two tools (0.74 vs. 0.71; P?=?0.816). Using meta-regression analysis, an overall mortality rate???10% and timing of qSOFA score measurement could be significant sources of heterogeneity. For predicting acute organ dysfunction, although the AUC for a positive qSOFA score was higher than that for positive SIRS criteria (0.87 vs. 0.76; P?<?0.001), the pooled sensitivity of positive qSOFA score was very low (0.47). In addition, a positive qSOFA score tended to be inferior to positive SIRS criteria in predicting ICU admission (0.63 vs. 0.78; P?=?0.121). CONCLUSIONS:A positive qSOFA score had high specificity outside the ICU in early detection of in-hospital mortality, acute organ dysfunction, and ICU admission, but low sensitivity may have limitations as a predictive tool for adverse outcomes. Because between-study heterogeneity was highly represented among the studies, our results should be interpreted with caution.

Project description:ObjectivesSepsis-3 defines organ dysfunction as an increase in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by greater than or equal to 2 points. However, some Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score components are not routinely recorded in all hospitals' electronic health record systems, limiting its utility for wide-scale sepsis surveillance. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently released the Adult Sepsis Event surveillance definition that includes simplified organ dysfunction criteria optimized for electronic health records (eSOFA). We compared eSOFA versus Sequential Organ Failure Assessment with regard to sepsis prevalence, overlap, and outcomes.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingOne hundred eleven U.S. hospitals in the Cerner HealthFacts dataset.PatientsAdults hospitalized in 2013-2015.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsWe identified clinical indicators of presumed infection (blood cultures and antibiotics) concurrent with either: 1) an increase in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by 2 or more points (Sepsis-3) or 2) 1 or more eSOFA criteria: vasopressor initiation, mechanical ventilation initiation, lactate greater than or equal to 2.0 mmol/L, doubling in creatinine, doubling in bilirubin to greater than or equal to 2.0 mg/dL, or greater than or equal to 50% decrease in platelet count to less than 100 cells/μL (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event). We compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for discriminating in-hospital mortality, adjusting for baseline characteristics. Of 942,360 patients in the cohort, 57,242 (6.1%) had sepsis by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment versus 41,618 (4.4%) by eSOFA. Agreement between sepsis by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and eSOFA was good (Cronbach's alpha 0.81). Baseline characteristics and infectious diagnoses were similar, but mortality was higher with eSOFA (17.1%) versus Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (14.4%; p < 0.001) as was discrimination for mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.774 vs 0.759; p < 0.001). Comparisons were consistent across subgroups of age, infectious diagnoses, and comorbidities.ConclusionsThe Adult Sepsis Event's eSOFA organ dysfunction criteria identify a smaller, more severely ill sepsis cohort compared with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, but with good overlap and similar clinical characteristics. Adult Sepsis Events may facilitate wide-scale automated sepsis surveillance that tracks closely with the more complex Sepsis-3 criteria.

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Application of a 72 h National Early Warning Score and Incorporation with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment for Predicting Sepsis Outcomes and Risk Stratification in an Intensive Care Unit: A Derivation and Validation Cohort Study.

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