Dataset Information

Modelling bluetongue risk in Kazakhstan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Bluetongue is a serious disease of ruminants caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV). BTV is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). Serological evidence from livestock and the presence of at least one competent vector species of Culicoides suggests that transmission of BTV is possible and may have occurred in Kazakhstan.

Methods

We estimated the risk of transmission using a mathematical model of the reproduction number R₀ for bluetongue. This model depends on livestock density and climatic factors which affect vector density. Data on climate and livestock numbers from the 2466 local communities were used. This, together with previously published model parameters, was used to estimate R₀ for each month of the year. We plotted the results on isopleth maps of Kazakhstan using interpolation to smooth the irregular data. We also mapped the estimated proportion of the population requiring vaccination to prevent outbreaks of bluetongue.

Results

The results suggest that transmission of bluetongue in Kazakhstan is not possible in the winter from October to March. Assuming there are vector-competent species of Culicoides endemic in Kazakhstan, then low levels of risk first appear in the south of Kazakhstan in April before spreading north and intensifying, reaching maximum levels in northern Kazakhstan in July. The risk declined in September and had disappeared by October.

Conclusion

These results should aid in surveillance efforts for the detection and control of bluetongue in Kazakhstan by indicating where and when outbreaks of bluetongue are most likely to occur. The results also indicate where vaccination efforts should be focussed to prevent outbreaks of disease.

SUBMITTER: Abdrakhmanov SK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8465711 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Introduction:Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer among women. In Kazakhstan, breast cancer holds first place among causes of women death caused by cancer in the 45-55 year age group. Many studies have shown that the risk of acquiring breast cancer may be related to the level of calcium in the blood serum. One of the important regulators of calcium metabolism in the body is the parathyroid hormone. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the gene encoding the parathyroid hormone (PTH) are associated with breast cancer development risk, and may modify the associative interaction between the levels of calcium intake and breast cancer. Experimental studies have shown that PTH gene has a carcinogenic effect. At least three studies showed a weak positive correlation between the risk of acquiring breast cancer and primary hyperparathyroidism, a state with high levels of PTH and often high levels of calcium. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate potential association between PTH gene polymorphism and breast cancer risk among Kazakhstani women. Methods:Female breast cancer patients (n = 429) and matched control women (n = 373) were recruited into a case - control study,. Genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral venous blood of study participants using Wizard® Genomic DNA Purification Kit (Promega, USA). Detection of PTH gene polymorphism (rs1459015) was done by means of the TaqMan® SNP Genotyping Assay of real-time PCR. Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS 19.0. Results:PTH gene alleles were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (p > 0.05). Distribution was 59% CC, 35% CT, 6% TT in the group with breast cancer and 50% CC, 43% CT, 6% TT in the control group. Total difference (between the group with breast cancer and the control group) in allele frequencies for PTH polymorphism was not significant (p > 0.05). No association was found between rs1459015 TT and breast cancer risk (OR = 1.039; 95%, CI 0.740 - 1.297; p = 0.893). Conclusion:We found no association between PTHrs1459015 polymorphism and breast cancer in our present study. Further studies are required to confirm our results and clarify role of PTH gene genotypes on breast cancer risk.