A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Amouzouvi K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8467372 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The recently emerged novel coronavirus, "severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)", caused a highly contagious disease called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The virus was first reported from Wuhan city in China in December, 2019, which in less than three months spread throughout the globe and was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th of March, 2020. So far, the ongoing pandemic severely damaged the world's most developed countries and is becoming a major threat for low- and middle-income countries. The poorest continent, Africa with the most vulnerable populations to infectious diseases, is predicted to be significantly affected by the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, in this review we collected and summarized the currently available literature on the epidemiology, etiology, vulnerability, preparedness and economic impact of COVID-19 in Africa, which could be useful and provide necessary information on ongoing COVID-19 pandemics in the continent. We also briefly summarized the concomitance of the COVID-19 pandemic and global warming.
| S-EPMC7473237 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We document trends in food security up to one full year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries. Using household-level data collected by the World Bank, we highlight differences over time amid the pandemic, between rural and urban areas, and between female-headed and male-headed households within Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria. We first observe a sharp increase in food insecurity during the early months of the pandemic with a subsequent gradual decline. Next, we find that food insecurity has increased more in rural areas than in urban areas relative to pre-pandemic data within each of these countries. Finally, we do not find a systematic difference in changes in food insecurity between female-headed and male-headed households. These trends complement previous microeconomic analysis studying short-term changes in food security associated with the pandemic and existing macroeconomic projections.
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Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1055 | biostudies-other
Project description:This study develops a holistic view of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) spread worldwide through a spatial–temporal model with network dynamics. By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547 166 flights with a total capacity of 101 455 913 passengers from January 22 to April 24, 2020, we analyze the epidemic correlations across 22 countries in six continents and particularly the changes in such correlations before and after implementing the international travel restriction policies targeting different countries. Results show that policymakers should move away from the previous practices that focus only on restricting hotspot areas with high infection rates. Instead, they should develop a new holistic view of global human mobility to impose the international movement restriction. The study further highlights potential correlations between international human mobility and focal countries’ epidemic situations in the global network of COVID-19 pandemic. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s40305-020-00317-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Project description:The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We use a model that explains the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic over time in the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the human development index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.
| S-EPMC7685354 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To understand and analyse the global impact of COVID-19 on outpatient services, inpatient care, elective surgery, and perioperative colorectal cancer care, a DElayed COloRectal cancer surgery (DECOR-19) survey was conducted in collaboration with numerous international colorectal societies with the objective of obtaining several learning points from the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on our colorectal cancer patients which will assist us in the ongoing management of our colorectal cancer patients and to provide us safe oncological pathways for future outbreaks.
| 2346925 | ecrin-mdr-crc
Project description:As largely documented in the literature, the stark restrictions enforced worldwide in 2020 to curb the COVID-19 pandemic also curtailed the production of air pollutants to some extent. This study investigates the perception of the air pollution as assessed by individuals located in ten countries: Australia, Brazil, China, Ghana, India, Iran, Italy, Norway, South Africa and the USA. The perceptions towards air quality were evaluated by employing an online survey administered in May 2020. Participants (N = 9394) in the ten countries expressed their opinions according to a Likert-scale response. A reduction in pollutant concentration was clearly perceived, albeit to a different extent, by all populations. The survey participants located in India and Italy perceived the largest drop in the air pollution concentration; conversely, the smallest variation was perceived among Chinese and Norwegian respondents. Among all the demographic indicators considered, only gender proved to be statistically significant.
| S-EPMC8216327 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThere was a low level of pandemic preparedness in South Asia, but the region has done well in mounting an appropriate response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The rate and proportion of deaths attributed to COVID-19 are lower despite case surges similar to the rest of the world.ResultsThe COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the glaring vulnerabilities of the health system. In addition, the high burden of non-communicable diseases in South Asia multiplies the complexities in combating present and future health crises. The advantage offered by the younger population demographics in South Asia may not be sustained with the rising burden of non-communicable diseases and lack of priority setting for improving health systems.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic has provided a window for introspection, scaling up preparedness for future pandemics, and improving the health of the population overall.
| S-EPMC7836380 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Primary outcome(s): The incidence of obstructive colorectal cancer
| 2656898 | ecrin-mdr-crc
Project description:BackgroundThe emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019 has caused widespread transmission around the world. As new epicentres in Europe and America have arisen, of particular concern is the increased number of imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Africa, where the impact of the pandemic could be more severe. We aim to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases imported from 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to each African country, as well as the probability of reaching 10,000 cases in total by the end of March, April, May, and June following viral introduction.MethodsWe used the reported number of cases imported from the 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to Singapore, as well as flight data, to estimate the number of imported cases in each African country. Under the assumption that Singapore has detected all the imported cases, the estimates for Africa were thus conservative. We then propagated the uncertainty in the imported case count estimates to simulate the onward spread of the virus, until 10,000 cases are reached or the end of June, whichever is earlier. Specifically, 1,000 simulations were run separately under four different combinations of parameter values to test the sensitivity of our results.ResultsWe estimated Morocco, Algeria, South Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, and Nigeria as having the largest number of COVID-19 cases imported from the 12 major epicentres. Based on our 1,000 simulation runs, Morocco and Algeria's estimated probability of reaching 10,000 cases by end of March was close to 100% under all scenarios. In particular, we identified countries with less than 1,000 cases in total reported by end of June whilst the estimated probability of reaching 10,000 cases by then was higher than 50% even under the most optimistic scenario.ConclusionsOur study highlights particular countries that are likely to reach (or have reached) 10,000 cases far earlier than the reported data suggest, calling for the prioritization of resources to mitigate the further spread of the epidemic.
| S-EPMC7424562 | biostudies-literature