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A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries.

ABSTRACT: We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0 , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1 . The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1-10 % of the recovered cases.

SUBMITTER: Amouzouvi K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8467372 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries.

Amouzouvi Kossi K Assamagan Kétévi A KA Azote Somiéalo S Connell Simon H SH Fankam Jean Baptiste Fankam JBF Fanomezana Fenosoa F Guga Aluwani A Haliya Cyrille E CE Mabote Toivo S TS Macucule Francisco Fenias FF Mathebula Dephney D Muronga Azwinndini A Mwale Kondwani C C KCC Njeri Ann A Onyie Ebode F EF Rakotondravohitra Laza L Zimba George G

Scientific African 20210926

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R 0 , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R 0 ≤ 4 at the start of ...[more]

PMID: 34604610

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Project description:The estimates of contiguousness parameters of an epidemic have been used for health-related policy and control measures such as non-pharmaceutical control interventions (NPIs). The estimates have varied by demographics, epidemic phase, and geographical region. Our aim was to estimate four contagiousness parameters: basic reproduction number (R 0), contact rate, removal rate, and infectious period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among eight African countries, namely Angola, Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia using Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered (SIR) epidemic models for the period 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. For reference, we also estimated these parameters for three of COVID-19's most severely affected countries: Brazil, India, and the USA. The basic reproduction number, contact and remove rates, and infectious period ranged from 1.11 to 1.59, 0.53 to 1.0, 0.39 to 0.81; and 1.23 to 2.59 for the eight African countries. For the USA, Brazil, and India these were 1.94, 0.66, 0.34, and 2.94; 1.62, 0.62, 0.38, and 2.62, and 1.55, 0.61, 0.39, and 2.55, respectively. The average COVID-19 related case fatality rate for 8 African countries in this study was estimated to be 2.86%. Contact and removal rates among an affected African population were positively and significantly associated with COVID-19 related deaths (p-value < 0.003). The larger than one estimates of the basic reproductive number in the studies of African countries indicate that COVID-19 was still being transmitted exponentially by the 31 December 2021, though at different rates. The spread was even higher for the three countries with substantial COVID-19 outbreaks. The lower removal rates in the USA, Brazil, and India could be indicative of lower death rates (a proxy for good health systems). Our findings of variation in the estimate of COVID-19 contagiousness parameters imply that countries in the region may implement differential COVID-19 containment measures.

Dataset Information

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries.

Publications

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries.

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