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A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries.

ABSTRACT: We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0 , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1 . The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1-10 % of the recovered cases.

SUBMITTER: Amouzouvi K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8467372 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R 0 , and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R 0 ≤ 4 at the start of  ...[more]