Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Li Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8468459 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:COVID-19 has posed formidable challenges as a significant global health crisis. Its complexity stems from factors like viral contagiousness, population density, social behaviors, governmental regulations, and environmental conditions, with interpersonal interactions and large-scale activities being particularly pivotal. To unravel these complexities, we used a modified SEIR epidemiological model to simulate various outbreak scenarios during the holiday season, incorporating both inter-regional and intra-regional human mobility effects into the parameterization scheme. In addition, evaluation metrics were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation by comparing the congruence between simulated results and recorded confirmed cases. The findings suggested that intra-city mobility led to an average surge of 57.35% in confirmed cases of China, while inter-city mobility contributed to an average increase of 15.18%. In the simulation for Tianjin, China, a one-week delay in human mobility attenuated the peak number of cases by 34.47% and postponed the peak time by 6 days. The simulation for the United States revealed that human mobility played a more pronounced part in the outbreak, with a notable disparity in peak cases when mobility was considered. This study highlights that while inter-regional mobility acted as a trigger for the epidemic spread, the diffusion effect of intra-regional mobility was primarily responsible for the outbreak. We have a better understanding on how human mobility and infectious disease epidemics interact, and provide empirical evidence that could contribute to disease prevention and control measures.
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Project description:Understanding the patterns of mobility of individuals is crucial for a number of reasons, from city planning to disaster management. There are two common ways of quantifying the amount of travel between locations: by direct observations that often involve privacy issues, e.g., tracking mobile phone locations, or by estimations from models. Typically, such models build on accurate knowledge of the population size at each location. However, when this information is not readily available, their applicability is rather limited. As mobile phones are ubiquitous, our aim is to investigate if mobility patterns can be inferred from aggregated mobile phone call data alone. Using data released by Orange for Ivory Coast, we show that human mobility is well predicted by a simple model based on the frequency of mobile phone calls between two locations and their geographical distance. We argue that the strength of the model comes from directly incorporating the social dimension of mobility. Furthermore, as only aggregated call data is required, the model helps to avoid potential privacy problems.
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Project description:The Japanese government adopted policies to control human mobility in 2020 to prevent the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study examined the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 cases at the prefectural level in Japan by devising an indicator to have a relationship between the number of infected people and on human mobility. We calculated origin-destination travel mobility within prefectures in Japan from March 1st to December 31st, 2020, using mobile phone data. A cross-correlation function (CCF) was used to examine the relationship between human mobility and a COVID-19 infection acceleration indicator (IAI), which represents the rate of change in the speed of COVID-19 infection. The CCF of intraprefectural human mobility and the IAI in Tokyo showed a maximum value of 0.440 at lag day 12, and the IAI could be used as an indicator to predict COVID-19 cases. Therefore, the IAI and human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic were useful for predicting infection status. The number of COVID-19 cases was associated with human mobility at the prefectural level in Japan in 2020. Controlling human mobility could help control infectious diseases in a pandemic, especially prior to starting vaccination.
| S-EPMC9810243 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA country's ability to become a prominent knowledge economy is tied closely to its ability to acquire skilled people who can compete internationally while resolving challenges of the future. To equip students with competence that can only by gained by being immersed in a foreign environment, outbound mobility is vital.MethodsTo analyze outbound student mobility in Taiwan using time series methods, this study aims to propose a hybrid approach FSDESVR which combines feature selection (FS) and support vector regression (SVR) with differential evolution (DE). FS and a DE algorithm were used for selecting reliable input features and determining the optimal initial parameters of SVR, respectively, to achieve high forecast accuracy.ResultsThe proposed approach was examined using a dataset of outbound Taiwanese student mobility to ten countries between 1998 and 2018. Without the requirements of any special conditions for the proprieties of the objective function and constraints, the FSDESVR model retained the advantage of FS, SVR, and DE. A comparison of the FSDESVR model and other forecasting models revealed that FSDESVR provided the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) results for all the analyzed nations. The experimental results indicate that FSDESVR achieved higher forecasting accuracy than the compared models from the literature.ConclusionWith the recognition of outbound values, key findings of Taiwanese outbound student mobility, and accurate application of the FSDESVR model, education administration units are exposed to a more in-depth view of future student mobility, which enables the implement of a more accurate education curriculum.
| S-EPMC7470415 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model's performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model's ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.
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Project description:COVID-19 constitutes the largest pandemic in the last 100 years. In view of the rapid spread of the virus, it is necessary to study the sociodemographic characteristics, hygiene habits, activity and mobility, and comorbidities of SARS-CoV-2 infection to be able to implement prevention strategies. For this purpose, a survey including the variables of interest was designed to try to understand the exponential spread of the virus despite the implemented severe restrictive mobility measures during the period of maximum confinement in Spain. This study conducted throughout the Spanish territory aims to clarify other routes of transmission of the COVID-19 during confinement, risk factors, and the effectiveness of the recommended hygiene measures to detect critical points of exposure to the virus and thus reduce its spread in this and possible future pandemics that could compromise public health. Our results show that living with a COVID-19 patient increased the risk of contagion by 60 times. Among all the sociodemographic variables analyzed, walking the dog have shown to have the strongest effect by increasing the risk by 78%. The most effective hygiene measure reducing the prevalence of the disease was the disinfection of products purchased from the market upon arrival home (which reduced the risk by 94%), above other hygiene measures, such as wearing masks, gloves, ethanol disinfection, bleaching and others. The mobility variable studied that showed the largest increase in the prevalence of the disease was working on site at the workplace (increased the risk by 76%). A significant higher prevalence of the disease was also detected among respondents who used the modality of acquiring basic commodities using home delivery service compared to those who chose in-store shopping.
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Project description:BackgroundThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and within a few months, it has become a global pandemic. This forced many affected countries to take stringent measures such as complete lockdown, shutting down businesses and trade, as well as travel restrictions, which has had a tremendous economic impact. Therefore, having knowledge and foresight about how a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 will be of paramount importance to the government, policy makers, business partners and entrepreneurs. To help social and administrative decision making, a model that will be able to forecast when a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 is needed.ResultsThe results obtained using our long short-term memory (LSTM) network-based model are promising as we validate our prediction model using New Zealand's data since they have been able to contain the spread of COVID-19 and bring the daily new cases tally to zero. Our proposed forecasting model was able to correctly predict the dates within which New Zealand was able to contain the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the proposed model has been used to forecast the dates when other countries would be able to contain the spread of COVID-19.ConclusionThe forecasted dates are only a prediction based on the existing situation. However, these forecasted dates can be used to guide actions and make informed decisions that will be practically beneficial in influencing the real future. The current forecasting trend shows that more stringent actions/restrictions need to be implemented for most of the countries as the forecasting model shows they will take over three months before they can possibly contain the spread of COVID-19.
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