Reconstructing contact network structure and cross-immunity patterns from multiple infection histories.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Selinger C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8475980 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Models of the spread of disease in a population often make the simplifying assumption that the population is homogeneously mixed, or is divided into homogeneously mixed compartments. However, human populations have complex structures formed by social contacts, which can have a significant influence on the rate of epidemic spread. Contact network models capture this structure by explicitly representing each contact which could possibly lead to a transmission. We developed a method based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a likelihood-free inference strategy, for estimating structural parameters of the contact network underlying an observed viral phylogeny. The method combines adaptive sequential Monte Carlo for ABC, Gillespie simulation for propagating epidemics though networks, and a kernel-based tree similarity score. We used the method to fit the Barabási-Albert network model to simulated transmission trees, and also applied it to viral phylogenies estimated from ten published HIV sequence datasets. This model incorporates a feature called preferential attachment (PA), whereby individuals with more existing contacts accumulate new contacts at a higher rate. On simulated data, we found that the strength of PA and the number of infected nodes in the network can often be accurately estimated. On the other hand, the mean degree of the network, as well as the total number of nodes, was not estimable with ABC. We observed sub-linear PA power in all datasets, as well as higher PA power in networks of injection drug users. These results underscore the importance of considering contact structures when performing phylodynamic inference. Our method offers the potential to quantitatively investigate the contact network structure underlying viral epidemics.
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Project description:Cancers are composed of genetically distinct subpopulations of malignant cells. DNA-sequencing data can be used to determine the somatic point mutations specific to each population and build clone trees describing the evolutionary relationships between them. These clone trees can reveal critical points in disease development and inform treatment. Pairtree is a new method that constructs more accurate and detailed clone trees than previously possible using variant allele frequency data from one or more bulk cancer samples. It does so by first building a Pairs Tensor that captures the evolutionary relationships between pairs of subpopulations, and then it uses these relations to constrain clone trees and infer violations of the infinite sites assumption. Pairtree can accurately build clone trees using up to 100 samples per cancer that contain 30 or more subclonal populations. On 14 B-progenitor acute lymphoblastic leukemias, Pairtree replicates or improves upon expert-derived clone tree reconstructions.SignificanceClone trees illustrate the evolutionary history of a cancer and can provide insights into how the disease changed through time (e.g., between diagnosis and relapse). Pairtree uses DNA-sequencing data from many samples of the same cancer to build more detailed and accurate clone trees than previously possible. See related commentary by Miller, p. 176. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 171.
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Project description:Ecological networks such as plant-pollinator and host-parasite networks have structured interactions that define who interacts with whom. The structure of interactions also shapes ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Yet, there is significant ongoing debate as to whether certain structures, e.g., nestedness, contribute positively, negatively or not at all to biodiversity. We contend that examining variation in life history traits is key to disentangling the potential relationship between network structure and biodiversity. Here, we do so by analyzing a dynamic model of virus-bacteria interactions across a spectrum of network structures. Consistent with prior studies, we find plausible parameter domains exhibiting strong, positive relationships between nestedness and biodiversity. Yet, the same model can exhibit negative relationships between nestedness and biodiversity when examined in a distinct, plausible region of parameter space. We discuss steps towards identifying when network structure could, on its own, drive the resilience, sustainability, and even conservation of ecological communities.
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Project description:The unprecedented behavioural responses of societies have been evidently shaping the COVID-19 pandemic, yet it is a significant challenge to accurately monitor the continuously changing social mixing patterns in real-time. Contact matrices, usually stratified by age, summarise interaction motifs efficiently, but their collection relies on conventional representative survey techniques, which are expensive and slow to obtain. Here we report a data collection effort involving over [Formula: see text] of the Hungarian population to simultaneously record contact matrices through a longitudinal online and sequence of representative phone surveys. To correct non-representative biases characterising the online data, by using census data and the representative samples we develop a reconstruction method to provide a scalable, cheap, and flexible way to dynamically obtain closer-to-representative contact matrices. Our results demonstrate that although some conventional socio-demographic characters correlate significantly with the change of contact numbers, the strongest predictors can be collected only via surveys techniques and combined with census data for the best reconstruction performance. We demonstrate the potential of combined online-offline data collections to understand the changing behavioural responses determining the future evolution of the outbreak, and to inform epidemic models with crucial data.
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Project description:BackgroundThe present knowledge of protein structures at atomic level derives from some 60,000 molecules. Yet the exponential ever growing set of hypothetical protein sequences comprises some 10 million chains and this makes the problem of protein structure prediction one of the challenging goals of bioinformatics. In this context, the protein representation with contact maps is an intermediate step of fold recognition and constitutes the input of contact map predictors. However contact map representations require fast and reliable methods to reconstruct the specific folding of the protein backbone.MethodsIn this paper, by adopting a GRID technology, our algorithm for 3D reconstruction FT-COMAR is benchmarked on a huge set of non redundant proteins (1716) taking random noise into consideration and this makes our computation the largest ever performed for the task at hand.ResultsWe can observe the effects of introducing random noise on 3D reconstruction and derive some considerations useful for future implementations. The dimension of the protein set allows also statistical considerations after grouping per SCOP structural classes.ConclusionsAll together our data indicate that the quality of 3D reconstruction is unaffected by deleting up to an average 75% of the real contacts while only few percentage of randomly generated contacts in place of non-contacts are sufficient to hamper 3D reconstruction.
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Project description:Ancient DNA studies have revealed how human migrations from the Neolithic to the Bronze Age transformed the social and genetic structure of European societies. Present-day Croatia lies at the heart of ancient migration routes through Europe, yet our knowledge about social and genetic processes here remains sparse. To shed light on these questions, we report new whole-genome data for 28 individuals dated to between ~ 4700 BCE-400 CE from two sites in present-day eastern Croatia. In the Middle Neolithic we evidence first cousin mating practices and strong genetic continuity from the Early Neolithic. In the Middle Bronze Age community that we studied, we find multiple closely related males suggesting a patrilocal social organisation. We also find in that community an unexpected genetic ancestry profile distinct from individuals found at contemporaneous sites in the region, due to the addition of hunter-gatherer-related ancestry. These findings support archaeological evidence for contacts with communities further north in the Carpathian Basin. Finally, an individual dated to Roman times exhibits an ancestry profile that is broadly present in the region today, adding an important data point to the substantial shift in ancestry that occurred in the region between the Bronze Age and today.
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Project description:Tumors contain multiple subpopulations of genetically distinct cancer cells. Reconstructing their evolutionary history can improve our understanding of how cancers develop and respond to treatment. Subclonal reconstruction methods cluster mutations into groups that co-occur within the same subpopulations, estimate the frequency of cells belonging to each subpopulation, and infer the ancestral relationships among the subpopulations by constructing a clone tree. However, often multiple clone trees are consistent with the data and current methods do not efficiently capture this uncertainty; nor can these methods scale to clone trees with a large number of subclonal populations. Here, we formalize the notion of a partially-defined clone tree (partial clone tree for short) that defines a subset of the pairwise ancestral relationships in a clone tree, thereby implicitly representing the set of all clone trees that have these defined pairwise relationships. Also, we introduce a special partial clone tree, the Maximally-Constrained Ancestral Reconstruction (MAR), which summarizes all clone trees fitting the input data equally well. Finally, we extend commonly used clone tree validity conditions to apply to partial clone trees and describe SubMARine, a polynomial-time algorithm producing the subMAR, which approximates the MAR and guarantees that its defined relationships are a subset of those present in the MAR. We also extend SubMARine to work with subclonal copy number aberrations and define equivalence constraints for this purpose. Further, we extend SubMARine to permit noise in the estimates of the subclonal frequencies while retaining its validity conditions and guarantees. In contrast to other clone tree reconstruction methods, SubMARine runs in time and space that scale polynomially in the number of subclones. We show through extensive noise-free simulation, a large lung cancer dataset and a prostate cancer dataset that the subMAR equals the MAR in all cases where only a single clone tree exists and that it is a perfect match to the MAR in most of the other cases. Notably, SubMARine runs in less than 70 seconds on a single thread with less than one Gb of memory on all datasets presented in this paper, including ones with 50 nodes in a clone tree. On the real-world data, SubMARine almost perfectly recovers the previously reported trees and identifies minor errors made in the expert-driven reconstructions of those trees. The freely-available open-source code implementing SubMARine can be downloaded at https://github.com/morrislab/submarine.
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Project description:Interaction patterns at the individual level influence the behaviour of diffusion over contact networks. Most of the current diffusion models only consider direct interactions, capable of transferring infectious items among individuals, to build transmission networks of diffusion. However, delayed indirect interactions, where a susceptible individual interacts with infectious items after the infected individual has left the interaction space, can also cause transmission events. We define a diffusion model called the same place different time transmission (SPDT)-based diffusion that considers transmission links for these indirect interactions. Our SPDT model changes the network dynamics where the connectivity among individuals varies with the decay rates of link infectivity. We investigate SPDT diffusion behaviours by simulating airborne disease spreading on data-driven contact networks. The SPDT model significantly increases diffusion dynamics with a high rate of disease transmission. By making the underlying connectivity denser and stronger due to the inclusion of indirect transmissions, SPDT models are more realistic than same place same time transmission (SPST)-based models for the study of various airborne disease outbreaks. Importantly, we also find that the diffusion dynamics including indirect links are not reproducible by the current SPST models based on direct links, even if both SPDT and SPST networks assume the same underlying connectivity. This is because the transmission dynamics of indirect links are different from those of direct links. These outcomes highlight the importance of the indirect links for predicting outbreaks of airborne diseases.
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