A simple prognostic score based on troponin and presepsin for COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department: a single-center pilot study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
The need to determine prognostic factors that can predict a particularly severe or, conversely, the benign course of COVID-19 is particularly perceived in the Emergency Department (ED), considering the scarcity of resources for a conspicuous mass of patients. The aim of our study was to identify some predictors for 30-day mortality among some clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound variables in a COVID-19 patients population.Methods
Prospective single-center pilot study conducted in an ED of a University Hospital. A consecutive sample of confirmed COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure was enrolled from March 8th to April 15th, 2020.Results
143 patients were enrolled. Deceased patients (n = 65) were older (81 vs. 61 years, p <0.001), and they had more frequently a history of heart disease, neurological disease, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p-values = 0.026, 0.025, and 0.034, respectively) than survived patients. Troponin I and presepsin had a significant correlation with a worse outcome. Troponin achieved a sensitivity of 77% and a specificity of 82% for a cut-off value of 27.6 ng/L. The presepsin achieved a sensitivity of 54% and a specificity of 92% for a cut-off value of 871 pg/mL.Conclusion
In a population of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure in an ED, presepsin and troponin I are accurate predictors of 30-day mortality. Presepsin is highly specific and could permit the early identification of patients who could benefit from more intensive care as soon as they enter the ED. Further validation studies are needed to confirm this result.
SUBMITTER: Dell'Aquila P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8477102 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesNo validated, simple, powerful and continuously monitorable risk prediction tools are available for patients with sepsis during the early phases in the emergency department (ED). We sought to derive a novel Simple Sepsis Early Prognostic Score (SSEPS) composed of physiological indicators that do not depend on laboratory tests and that can be used by emergency clinicians in predicting outcomes in patients with sepsis.DesignRetrospective cohort analysis of a collected data source.ParticipantsPatients with sepsis admitted to the ED of the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between July 2015 and June 2016 were included. We excluded patients who were pregnant, those with cardiac or respiratory arrest, and those using vasoactive drugs before admission to the ED.Primary outcome measures28-day all-cause mortality.ResultsThe SSEPS consisted of age, heart rate, respiratory rate and altered consciousness. Patients in the development cohort with higher SSEPS had a significantly higher mortality (first tertile vs second tertile vs third tertile: 12.5% vs 28.6% vs 53.5%, p<0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for SSEPS was 0.762 (95% CI 0.686 to 0.838), which was similar to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (area under the curve: 0.745, 95% CI 0.692 to 0.798) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) (area under the curve: 0.750, 95% CI 0.681 to 0.819). Moreover, the decision curve analysis showed that the net benefit of SSEPS was higher than SOFA and APACHE II at any probability threshold.ConclusionThe SSEPS is simple and useful for clinicians in stratifying high-risk patients with sepsis at the early phase of ED admission.
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Project description:BackgroundThe aim of this study was to determine the ability of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (SOFA) and modified SOFA score (mSOFA) as predictive tools for 2-day and 28-day mortality and ICU admission in patients with acute neurological pathology treated in hospital emergency departments (EDs).MethodsAn observational, prospective cohort study in adults with acute neurological disease transferred by ambulance to an ED was conducted from 1 January 2019 to 31 August 2022 in five hospitals in Castilla-León (Spain). Score discrimination was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the score.ResultsA total of 640 adult patients with neurological disease were included. For the prediction of 2-day mortality (all-cause), mSOFA presented a higher AUC than SOFA (mSOFA = 0.925 vs. SOFA = 0.902). This was not the case for 28-day mortality, for which SOFA was higher than mSOFA (mSOFA = 0.852 vs. SOFA = 0.875). Finally, ICU admission showed that SOFA was higher than mSOFA (mSOFA = 0.834 vs. SOFA = 0.845).ConclusionBoth mSOFA and SOFA presented similar predictive ability, with mSOFA being the best predictor for short-term mortality and SOFA being the best predictor for medium-term mortality, as well as for ICU admission. These results in a cohort of patients with acute neurological pathology pave the way for the use of both predictive tools in the ED. The inclusion of these tools could improve the clinical assessment and further treatment of neurological patients, who commonly present the worst outcomes.
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Project description:AimsElevated levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) are associated with adverse outcomes in numerous patient populations. Their value in prediction of stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is in debate.MethodsThe study population included 2898 consecutive patients presenting with AF to the emergency department of the Department of Cardiology, Heidelberg University Hospital. Associations between hsTnT and stroke risk were assessed using multivariable Cox regression.ResultsElevated hsTnT levels (>14 ng/L) were associated with increased risk of stroke. Even after adjustment for various risk factors, elevated hsTnT remained independently associated with stroke risk in patients with AF, adjusted hazard ratio 2.35 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26-4.36] (P = 0.007). These results were consistent across important subgroups (age, renal function, ejection fraction, CHA2DS2-VASc score and main admission diagnosis). For hsTnT, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.659 [95% CI: 0.575-0.742], compared to 0.610 [95% CI: 0.526-0.694] for the CHA2DS2-VASc score. Inclusion of hsTnT in the multivariable model for stroke risk prediction consisting of all variables of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with a significant improvement of its discriminatory power.ConclusionElevated hsTnT levels are significantly associated with higher risk of stroke and provide prognostic information independent of CHA2DS2-VASc score variables. Measurement of hsTnT may improve prediction of stroke risk in patients presenting to an emergency department with AF as compared to risk stratification based only on clinical variables.
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Project description:BackgroundThe Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor.AimsThis study aimed to evaluate the combination of the SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED).MethodsA retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 h after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the mortality risk of the initial SOFA score plus the Imp-R. Harrell's C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed.ResultsOut of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during their hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. The SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of the SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74-0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.84), respectively. The DCA showed that combining the SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds.ConclusionsThe addition of the Imp-R to the baseline SOFA score on admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.
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Project description:PURPOSE:Sepsis is a common acute life-threatening condition that emergency physicians routinely face. Diagnostic options within the Emergency Department (ED) are limited due to lack of infrastructure, consequently limiting the use of invasive hemodynamic monitoring or imaging tests. The mortality rate due to sepsis can be assessed via multiple scoring systems, for example, mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score and sepsis patient evaluation in the emergency department (SPEED) score, both of which quantify the variation of mortality rates according to clinical findings, laboratory data, or therapeutic interventions. This study aims to improve the management processes of sepsis patients by comparing SPEED score and MEDS score for predicting the 28-day mortality in cases of emergency sepsis. METHODS:The study is a cross-sectional, prospective study including 61 sepsis patients in ED in Suez Canal University Hospital, Egypt, from August 2017 to June 2018. Patients were selected by two steps: (1) suspected septic patients presenting with at least one of the following abnormal clinical findings: (a) body temperature higher than 38 °C or lower than 36 °C, (b) heart rate higher than 90 beats/min, (c) hyperventilation evidenced by respiratory rate higher than 20 breaths/min or PaCO2 lower than 32 mmHg, and (d) white blood cell count higher than 12,000/?L or lower than 4000/?L; (2) confirmed septic patients with at least a 2-point increase from the baseline total sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score following infection. Other inclusion criteria included adult patients with an age ?18 years regardless of gender and those who had either systemic inflammatory response syndrome or suspected/confirmed infection. Patients were shortly follow-up for the 28-day mortality. Each patient was subject to SPEED score and MEDS score and then the results were compared to detect which of them was more effective in predicting outcome. The receiver operating characteristic curves were also done for MEDS and SPEED scores. RESULTS:Among the 61 patients, 41 died with the mortality rate of 67.2%. The mortality rate increased with a higher SPEED and MEDS scores. Both SPEED and MEDS scores revealed significant difference between the survivors and nonsurvivors (p = 0.004 and p < 0.001, respectively), indicating that both the two systems are effective in predicting the 28-day mortality of sepsis patients. Thereafter, the receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, which showed that SPEED was better than the MEDS score when applied to the complete study population with an area under the curve being 0.87 (0.788-0.963) as compared with 0.75 (0.634-0.876) for MEDS. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the best fitting predictor of 28-day mortality for sepsis patients was the SPEED scoring system. For every one unit increase in SPEED score, the odds of 28-day mortality increased by 37%. CONCLUSION:SPEED score is more useful and accurate than MEDS score in predicting the 28-day mortality among sepsis patients. Therefore SPEED rather than MEDS should be more widely used in the ED for sepsis patients.
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