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Heterogeneity in cognitive disability after a major disaster: A natural experiment study.

ABSTRACT: Cognitive disability following traumatic experiences of disaster has been documented; however, little is known about heterogeneity in the association across individuals. In this natural experiment study of approximately 3000 Japanese older adults in an area directly affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the baseline survey was established 7 months before the 2011 earthquake. To inductively identify heterogeneity in postdisaster cognitive disability by predisaster characteristics, we applied a machine learning–based causal inference approach—generalized random forest. We identified strong evidence for heterogeneity in the association between home loss and cognitive disability objectively assessed 2.5 and 5.5 years after the 2011 earthquake. The subgroups with the strongest disaster-dementia associations tended to be from low socioeconomic backgrounds and have predisaster health problems. The study demonstrated that some subpopulations are particularly prone to experience cognitive disability after disasters, which could be overlooked in studies assessing population average associations only.

SUBMITTER: Shiba K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8480922 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heterogeneity in cognitive disability after a major disaster: A natural experiment study.

Shiba Koichiro K Daoud Adel A Hikichi Hiroyuki H Yazawa Aki A Aida Jun J Kondo Katsunori K Kawachi Ichiro I

Science advances 20210929 40

Cognitive disability following traumatic experiences of disaster has been documented; however, little is known about heterogeneity in the association across individuals. In this natural experiment study of approximately 3000 Japanese older adults in an area directly affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the baseline survey was established 7 months before the 2011 earthquake. To inductively identify heterogeneity in postdisaster cognitive disability by predisaster characteristics, we ...[more]

PMID: 34586850

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Project description:ImportanceOlder adults are at high risk for cognitive impairments following natural disasters, but the persistence of such effects is not well understood.ObjectiveTo track older adults' postdisaster cognitive disability trajectories over a decade and examine associations of cognitive disability with disaster damage exposure.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study used predisaster baseline surveys conducted in August 2010 and 4 follow-ups approximately every 3 years until November 10, 2022. Invitations were mailed at baseline to all citizens 65 years or older in Iwanuma City, Japan, a coastal municipality significantly impacted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. A total of 1988 respondents who were cognitively independent (ie, without cognitive disability) before the disaster completed the 4 postdisaster cognitive assessments.ExposuresExperiences of residential damage, worsening financial conditions, loss of loved ones, and disruption in health care services. A composite score quantified these experiences, with higher scores indicating greater overall damage.Main outcomes and measuresCognitive disability level was assessed using a standardized in-home evaluation under a national long-term care insurance scheme. Trained investigators evaluated participants' activities of daily living, cognitive function, and presence of mental and/or behavioral disorders. Latent class growth analyses (LCGA) identified distinct cognitive disability trajectories. Primary outcomes consisted of inclusion in these trajectories.ResultsThe analytic sample consisted of 1988 participants who were cognitively independent at baseline, with a mean (SD) age of 72.4 (5.4) years, of whom 1159 (58.3%) were female. LCGA identified 3 cognitive disability trajectories: high and gradual deterioration (277 [13.9%]; high levels of cognitive disability with increasing impairment over time), low and progressive deterioration (541 [27.2%]; low levels of cognitive disability with accelerated decline in cognitive function over time), and low and stable (1170 [58.9%]; low levels of cognitive disability that remained stable). In multinomial regression analyses with the low and stable trajectory serving as the reference, housing damage (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.52; 95% CI, 1.26-5.04), worsening financial conditions (AOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.15-2.90), and disruption in health care services (AOR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.03-2.99) were associated with high and gradual deterioration. Worsening financial conditions (AOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.01-1.90) and higher composite damage scores (AOR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.34) were associated with low and progressive deterioration. These associations no longer remained after adjusting for postdisaster depressive symptoms.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of older adults who survived the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, disaster-related exposures were associated with worse long-term cognitive disability trajectories. These findings could inform tailored interventions to preserve cognitive function in older disaster survivors.

Project description:Background and objectivesMany cross-sectional studies have confirmed a link between gait speed and cognitive function. However, it is unknown whether cognitive function plays a role in the onset of major mobility disability (MMD) and if the effects are independent of physical function. This study examined cognitive and physical function as predictors of MMD across an average of 2.6 years of follow-up in community-dwelling older adults with compromised mobility.Research design and methodData were collected from 1,635 participants in the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) study ages 70-89 years free of MMD at baseline. MMD was assessed every 6 months and defined as the inability to walk 400 m in ≤15 min without assistance or sitting. Cognitive function was assessed at baseline, 18 months, and 24 months using a cognitive battery categorized into four domains: global cognitive function, processing speed, verbal memory, and executive function.ResultsAcross the study duration of 2.6 years, 536 participants (32.8%) developed MMD. Cox Proportional Hazard models indicated a protective relationship for higher baseline processing speed (Hazard Ratio [HR] per standard deviation: 0.86, p = .006), executive function (HR: 0.86, p = .002), and global cognition (HR: 0.85, p = .001) on incidence of MMD adjusted for demographics, intervention, and comorbidities. Results were not significant after adjustment for gait speed. In adjusted longitudinal models, a positive change in processing speed was significantly associated with reduced risk of MMD (HR: 0.52, p < .001) while other domains were not.Discussion and implicationsIn the LIFE study, processing speed at baseline and follow-up was a significant predictor of subsequent MMD although the observed association may be explained by physical function as reflected in gait speed. More studies are needed to understand how cognitive function, alone and in combination with physical function, influences risk of MMD.

Dataset Information

Heterogeneity in cognitive disability after a major disaster: A natural experiment study.

Publications

Heterogeneity in cognitive disability after a major disaster: A natural experiment study.

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