Dataset Information

Predictive Nomogram of Subsequent Liver Metastasis After Mastectomy or Breast-Conserving Surgery in Patients With Nonmetastatic Breast Cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Metastasis accounts for the majority of deaths in patients with breast cancer. Liver metastasis is reported common for breast cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to construct a nomogram to predict the likelihood of subsequent liver metastasis in patients with nonmetastatic breast cancer, thus high-risk patient populations can be prevented and monitored.

Methods

A total of 1840 patients with stage I-III breast cancer were retrospectively included and analyzed. A nomogram was constructed to predict liver metastasis based on multivariate logistic regression analysis. SEER database was used for external validation. C-index, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.

Results

The nomogram included 3 variables related to liver metastasis: HER2 status (odds ratio (OR) 1.86, 95%CI 1.02 to 3.41; P = 0.045), tumor size (OR 3.62, 1.91 to 6.87; P < 0.001) and lymph node metastasis (OR 2.26, 1.18 to 4.34; P = 0.014). The C index of the training cohort, internal validation cohort and external validation cohort were 0.699, 0.814 and 0.791, respectively. The nomogram was well-calibrated, with no statistical difference between the predicted and the observed probabilities.

Conclusion

We have developed and validated a robust tool enabled to predict subsequent liver metastasis in patients with nonmetastatic breast cancer. Distinguishing a population of patients at high risk of liver metastasis will facilitate preventive treatment or monitoring of liver metastasis.

SUBMITTER: Yang A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8482719 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Introduction: The early randomized controlled trials revealed no differences in survival between breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and mastectomy. However, breast cancer treatment has undergone changes, and the results of recent population-based registry studies suggest superior long-term survival after BCS. To explore the current evidence, a systematic review and meta-ana lysis of population-based observational studies from 2010 and onward was conducted. Methods: A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases to identify relevant literature. Keywords included “mastectomy,” “breast conserving surgery,” and “survival.” The identified studies were narratively reviewed and effect sizes (hazard ratios [HRs]) for overall (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) were combined with random-effects models. Results: A total of 30 reports were included in the review, and results from 25 studies were included in the meta-analyses. Compared with mastectomy, BCS was associated with better OS (HR = 1.34 [1.20–1.51]; N = 1,311,600) and BCSS (HR = 1.38 [1.29–1.47]; N = 494,267). Selected subgroups of patients, based on lymph node status, age (<50 years/≥50 years), and radiation therapy after mastectomy (±), all showed better overall survival after BCS. The number (range 4–12) and type of prognostic variables adjusted for in the survival analyses of the studies did not statistically significantly moderate the differences in survival between BCS and mastectomy. Conclusions: The combined findings from large population-based studies indicate that BCS is associated with survival benefit compared with mastectomy, suggesting that BCS be the recommended treatment of early breast cancer (T1-2N0-1M0) if a radical lumpectomy can be performed. Mini-Abstract: A systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based observational studies comparing the survival after breast-conserving surgery and mastectomy in patients with breast cancer. The review comprises 30 papers from 2010 to 2021. More than 1.3 million patients are included in the meta-analyses.