Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Accounting for Future Initiation of Statin Treatment.
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SUBMITTER: Xu Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8485151 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Accounting for Future Initiation of Statin Treatment.
Xu Zhe Z Arnold Matthew M Stevens David D Kaptoge Stephen S Pennells Lisa L Sweeting Michael J MJ Barrett Jessica J Di Angelantonio Emanuele E Wood Angela M AM
American journal of epidemiology 20211001 10
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk-prediction models are used to identify high-risk individuals and guide statin initiation. However, these models are usually derived from individuals who might initiate statins during follow-up. We present a simple approach to address statin initiation to predict "statin-naive" CVD risk. We analyzed primary care data (2004-2017) from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 1,678,727 individuals (aged 40-85 years) without CVD or statin treatment history at ...[more]
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Project description:Objectives To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors.Design Prospective open cohort study.Setting General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database.Participants 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline.Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status.Main outcome measures Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records.Results 363?565 incident cases of cardiovascular disease were identified in the derivation cohort during follow-up arising from 50.8 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met the model inclusion criteria except for HIV/AIDS, which was not statistically significant. The models had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination. In women, the algorithm explained 59.6% of the variation in time to diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (R2, with higher values indicating more variation), and the D statistic was 2.48 and Harrell's C statistic was 0.88 (both measures of discrimination, with higher values indicating better discrimination). The corresponding values for men were 54.8%, 2.26, and 0.86. Overall performance of the updated QRISK3 algorithms was similar to the QRISK2 algorithms.Conclusion Updated QRISK3 risk prediction models were developed and validated. The inclusion of additional clinical variables in QRISK3 (chronic kidney disease, a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, SLE, atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and erectile dysfunction) can help enable doctors to identify those at most risk of heart disease and stroke.
| S-EPMC5441081 | biostudies-other
Project description:The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines have wide-scale implications for treating adults without history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) with statins.To estimate the cost-effectiveness of various 10-year ASCVD risk thresholds that could be used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines.Microsimulation model, including lifetime time horizon, US societal perspective, 3% discount rate for costs, and health outcomes. In the model, hypothetical individuals from a representative US population aged 40 to 75 years received statin treatment, experienced ASCVD events, and died from ASCVD-related or non-ASCVD-related causes based on ASCVD natural history and statin treatment parameters. Data sources for model parameters included National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, large clinical trials and meta-analyses for statin benefits and treatment, and other published sources.Estimated ASCVD events prevented and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.In the base-case scenario, the current ASCVD threshold of 7.5% or higher, which was estimated to be associated with 48% of adults treated with statins, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,000/QALY compared with a 10% or higher threshold. More lenient ASCVD thresholds of 4.0% or higher (61% of adults treated) and 3.0% or higher (67% of adults treated) had ICERs of $81,000/QALY and $140,000/QALY, respectively. Shifting from a 7.5% or higher ASCVD risk threshold to a 3.0% or higher ASCVD risk threshold was estimated to be associated with an additional 161,560 cardiovascular disease events averted. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in the disutility associated with taking a pill daily, statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was a higher than 93% chance that the optimal ASCVD threshold was 5.0% or lower using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000/QALY.In this microsimulation model of US adults aged 45 to 75 years [corrected], the current 10-year ASCVD risk threshold (?7.5% risk threshold) used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines has an acceptable cost-effectiveness profile (ICER, $37,000/QALY), but more lenient ASCVD thresholds would be optimal using cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY (?4.0% risk threshold) or $150,000/QALY (?3.0% risk threshold). The optimal ASCVD threshold was sensitive to patient preferences for taking a pill daily, changes to statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes.
| S-EPMC4797634 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) show that decreases in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) by the use of statins cause a significant reduction in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, one of our previous studies showed that, among eight RCTs that investigated the effect of statins vs. a placebo on CVD development, 56-79% of patients had residual CVD risk after the trials. In three RCTs that investigated the effect of a high dose vs. a usual dose of statins on CVD development, 78-87% of patients in the high-dose statin arms still had residual CVD risk. The risk of CVD development remains even when statins are used to strongly reduce LDL-C, and this type of risk is now regarded as statin residual CVD risk. Our study shows that elevated triglyceride (TG) levels, reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and the existence of obesity/insulin resistance and diabetes may be important metabolic factors that determine statin residual CVD risk. Here, we discuss atherogenic lipoproteins that were not investigated in such RCTs, such as lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)), remnant lipoproteins, malondialdehyde-modified LDL (MDA-LDL), and small-dense LDL (Sd-LDL). Lp(a) is under strong genetic control by apolipoprotein (a), which is an LPA gene locus. Variations in the LPA gene account for 91% of the variability in the plasma concentration of Lp(a). A meta-analysis showed that genetic variations at the LPA locus are associated with CVD events during statin therapy, independent of the extent of LDL lowering, providing support for exploring strategies targeting circulating concentrations of Lp(a) to reduce CVD events in patients receiving statins. Remnant lipoproteins and small-dense LDL are highly associated with high TG levels, low HDL-C, and obesity/insulin resistance. MDA-LDL is a representative form of oxidized LDL and plays important roles in the formation and development of the primary lesions of atherosclerosis. MDA-LDL levels were higher in CVD patients and diabetic patients than in the control subjects. Furthermore, we demonstrated the atherogenic properties of such lipoproteins and their association with CVD as well as therapeutic approaches.
| S-EPMC9657259 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe role of statin therapy in the development of kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the relationships between statin initiation and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 DM.MethodsThrough a new-user design, we conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study using the China Renal Data System database (which includes inpatient and outpatient data from 19 urban academic centres across China). We included patients with type 2 DM who were aged 40 years or older and admitted to hospital between Jan. 1, 2000, and May 26, 2021, and excluded those with pre-existing chronic kidney disease and those who were already on statins or without follow-up at an affiliated outpatient clinic within 90 days after discharge. The primary exposure was initiation of a statin. The primary outcome was the development of diabetic kidney disease (DKD), defined as a composite of the occurrence of kidney dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and > 25% decline from baseline) and proteinuria (a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g and > 50% increase from baseline), sustained for at least 90 days; secondary outcomes included development of kidney function decline (a sustained > 40% decline in eGFR). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the relationships between statin initiation and kidney outcomes, as well as to conduct subgroup analyses according to patient characteristics, presence or absence of dyslipidemia, and pattern of dyslipidemia. For statin initiators, we explored the association between different levels of lipid control and outcomes. We conducted analyses using propensity overlap weighting to balance the participant characteristics.ResultsAmong 7272 statin initiators and 12 586 noninitiators in the weighted cohort, statin initiation was associated with lower risks of incident DKD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-0.83) and kidney function decline (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.44-0.81). We obtained similar results to the primary analyses for participants with differing patterns of dyslipidemia, those prescribed different statins, and after stratification according to participant characteristics. Among statin initiators, those with intensive control of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (< 1.8 mmol/L) had a lower risk of incident DKD (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.81) than those with inadequate lipid control (LDL-C ≥ 3.4 mmol/L).InterpretationFor patients with type 2 DM admitted to and followed up in academic centres, statin initiation was associated with a lower risk of kidney disease development, particularly in those with intensive control of LDL-C. These findings suggest that statin initiation may be an effective and reasonable approach for preventing kidney disease in patients with type 2 DM.
| S-EPMC10228577 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMultiple studies and meta-analyses examined the role of traditional risk factors for cardiovascular events in statin treatment-naive patients. Nowadays, millions receive such therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events (CVE).ObjectiveCVEs still occur in patients on primary preventive statin therapy. Therefore, further risk stratification within these patients is urgently needed.MethodsUsing the unique linkage between biomedical data and prescription data from the PharmLines Initiative, we assessed the role of several risk factors used in cardiovascular risk models, using a time-dependent Cox PH model, in the occurrence of drug treatment of CVEs after initiation of statin therapy.ResultsAmong 602 statin therapy starters, 11% received drug treatment for CVE within an average follow-up period of 832 days. After multivariable modelling, cholesterol levels and blood pressure at baseline were no longer associated, whereas self-reported diabetes and increasing age were highly associated with the outcome when on statin therapy (hazard ratio (HR): 3.01, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.48-6.12 and 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.07, respectively). Males, smokers, and nonadherent patients had increased risks (HR 1.6, 1.12, and 1.18, resp.), though not statistically significant.ConclusionDrug treatment for CVEs after statin initiation is increased in patients with diabetes type 2, in aged patients, males, smokers, and those with poor adherence, while there was no association with baseline cholesterol levels and blood pressure. These factors should be taken into account during the monitoring of statin therapy and may lead to changes in statin treatment or risk-related lifestyle factors.
| S-EPMC9155967 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ample evidence supports the use of statin therapy for secondary prevention in patients with a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), but evidence is wanting in the case of primary prevention, low-risk individuals, and elderly adults 65+. Statins are effective in lowering low-density lipoprotein (LDL), which has long been a target for treatment decisions. We discuss the weakening dependence between cholesterol levels and mortality as a function of age and highlight recent findings on lipoprotein subfractions and other superior markers of ASCVD risk. The efficacy of statins is compared for distinct subsets of patients based on age, diabetes, ASCVD, and coronary artery calcium (CAC) status. Most cardiovascular risk calculators heavily weight age and overestimate one's absolute risk of ASCVD, particularly in very old adults. Improvements in risk assessment enable the identification of specific patient populations that benefit most from statin treatment. Derisking is particularly important for adults over 75, in whom treatment benefits are reduced and adverse musculoskeletal effects are amplified. The CAC score stratifies the benefit effect size obtainable with statins, and forms of coenzyme Q are discussed for improving patient outcomes. Robust risk estimator tools and personalized, evidence-based approaches are needed to optimally reduce cardiovascular events and mortality rates through administration of cholesterol-lowering medications.
| S-EPMC7700563 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Previous studies on the effect of statin adherence on cardiovascular events in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease have adjusted for time-dependent confounding, but potentially introduced bias into their estimates as adherence and confounders were measured simultaneously. We aimed to evaluate the effect when accounting for time-dependent confounding affected by previous adherence as well as time sequence between factors.Retrospective cohort study.Finnish healthcare registers.Women aged 45-64 years initiating statin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in 2001-2004 (n=42 807).Acute cardiovascular event defined as a composite of acute coronary syndrome and acute ischaemic stroke was our primary outcome. Low-energy fractures were used as a negative control outcome to evaluate the healthy-adherer effect.During the 3-year follow-up, 474 women experienced the primary outcome event and 557 suffered a low-energy fracture. The causal HR estimated with marginal structural model for acute cardiovascular events for all the women who remained adherent (proportion of days covered ≥80%) to statin therapy during the previous adherence assessment year was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.94) when compared with everybody remaining non-adherent (proportion of days covered <80%). The result was robust against alternative model specifications. Statin adherers had a potentially reduced risk of experiencing low-energy fractures compared with non-adherers (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.07).Our study, which took into account the time dependence of adherence and confounders, as well as temporal order between these factors, is support for the concept that adherence to statins in women in primary prevention decreases the risk of acute cardiovascular events by about one-fifth in comparison to non-adherence. However, part of the observed effect of statin adherence on acute cardiovascular events may be due to the healthy-adherer effect.
| S-EPMC4893857 | biostudies-other
Project description:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally. Risk assessment is crucial for identifying at-risk individuals who require immediate attention as well as to guide the intensity of medical therapy to reduce subsequent risk of CVD. In the past decade, many risk prediction models have been proposed to estimate the risk of developing CVD. However, in patients with a history of CVD, the current models that based on traditional risk factors provide limited power in predicting recurrent cardiovascular events. Several biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways have been identified to predict cardiovascular events, and the incorporation of biomarkers into risk assessment may contribute to enhance risk stratification in secondary prevention. This review focuses on biomarkers related to cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, adiponectin, adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein, heart-type fatty acid-binding protein, lipocalin-2, fibroblast growth factor 19 and 21, retinol-binding protein 4, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, and discusses the potential utility of these biomarkers in cardiovascular risk prediction among patients with CVD. Many of these biomarkers have shown promise in improving risk prediction of CVD. Further research is needed to assess the validity of biomarker and whether the strategy for incorporating biomarker into clinical practice may help to optimize decision-making and therapeutic management.
| S-EPMC8517145 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate targeting of statin prescribing for primary prevention to those with high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.DesignTwo cohort studies including the general population and initiators of statins aged 35-74 years.SettingUK primary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.Patients3.8 million general population patients and 300 914 statin users.InterventionStatin prescribing.Main outcome measuresStatin prescribing by CVD risk; observed 5-year CVD risks; variability between practices.ResultsStatin prescribing increased substantially over time to patients with high 10-year CVD risk (≥ 20%): 7.0% of these received a statin prior to 2007, and 30.4% in 2007 onwards. Prescribing to patients with low risk (<15%) also increased (from 1.9% to 5.0%). Only about half the patients initiating statin treatment were high risk according to CVD risk score. The 5-year CVD risks, as observed during statin treatment, reduced over calendar time (from 17.0% to 7.1%). There was a large variation between general practices in the percentage of high-risk patients prescribed a statin in 2007 onwards, ranging from 8.2% to 61.5%. For low-risk patients, these varied from 2.1% to 29.1%.ConclusionsThere appeared to be substantive overuse in low CVD risk and underuse in high CVD risk (600 000 and 850 000 patients, respectively, in the UK since 2007). There is wide variation between practices in statin prescribing to patients at high CVD risk. There is a clear need for randomised trials for the best strategy to target statin treatment and manage CVD risk for primary prevention.
| S-EPMC3812879 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For patients with hypertension, an individual risk prediction tool for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure is needed and would be useful. The objective of this study was to establish a 3-year risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease based on data from 13 052 patients with no history of cardiovascular disease in the Olmesartan Mega study to determine the relationship between Cardiovascular Endpoints and Blood Pressure Goal Achievement study. To develop dynamic prediction models including on-treatment blood pressure, a Cox proportional hazard model using the sliding landmarking method with three landmark points (6, 12 and 18 months from baseline) was used. The prediction model included blood pressure (<130/85 mm Hg, ⩾130/85 to <140/90 mm Hg, ⩾140/90 to <160/100 mm Hg and ⩾160/100 mm Hg) as a time-dependent covariate and well-known baseline risk factors (sex, age, smoking, family history of coronary artery disease and diabetes) as covariates. The 3-year risk assessment chart was constructed using the combination of all risk factors in the prediction model, and six different colors were displayed on each chart corresponding to the predicted probability of cardiovascular disease. Judging from the chart, if an elderly man with diabetes and other risk factors had a blood pressure of <130/85 mm Hg at 6 months, the risk of cardiovascular disease would be 8.0%, whereas the risk would be 8.6% if he had a blood pressure of ⩾130/85 to <140/90 mm Hg. The risk assessment chart developed from the large-scale observational study data would help physicians to more easily assess the cardiovascular disease risk for hypertensive patients on antihypertensive treatments.
| S-EPMC4753397 | biostudies-other