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A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model for the integrative analysis of microbiome data.

ABSTRACT: Microbiome omics approaches can reveal intriguing relationships between the human microbiome and certain disease states. Along with identification of specific bacteria taxa associated with diseases, recent scientific advancements provide mounting evidence that metabolism, genetics, and environmental factors can all modulate these microbial effects. However, the current methods for integrating microbiome data and other covariates are severely lacking. Hence, we present an integrative Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model that can both distinguish differentially abundant taxa with distinct phenotypes and quantify covariate-taxa effects. Our model demonstrates good performance using simulated data. Furthermore, we successfully integrated microbiome taxonomies and metabolomics in two real microbiome datasets to provide biologically interpretable findings. In all, we proposed a novel integrative Bayesian regression model that features bacterial differential abundance analysis and microbiome-covariate effects quantifications, which makes it suitable for general microbiome studies.

SUBMITTER: Jiang S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8487663 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model for the integrative analysis of microbiome data.

Jiang Shuang S Xiao Guanghua G Koh Andrew Y AY Kim Jiwoong J Li Qiwei Q Zhan Xiaowei X

Biostatistics (Oxford, England) 20210701 3

Microbiome omics approaches can reveal intriguing relationships between the human microbiome and certain disease states. Along with identification of specific bacteria taxa associated with diseases, recent scientific advancements provide mounting evidence that metabolism, genetics, and environmental factors can all modulate these microbial effects. However, the current methods for integrating microbiome data and other covariates are severely lacking. Hence, we present an integrative Bayesian zer ...[more]

PMID: 31844880

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Project description:BackgroundIt is difficult to detect the outbreak of emergency infectious disease based on the exiting surveillance system. Here we investigate the utility of the Baidu Search Index, an indicator of how large of a keyword is in Baidu's search volume, in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19.MethodsThe daily number of cases and the Baidu Search Index of 8 keywords (weighted by population) from December 1, 2019 to March 15, 2020 were collected and analyzed with times series and Spearman correlation with different time lag. To predict the daily number of COVID-19 cases using the Baidu Search Index, Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used in phase 1 and negative binomial regression model was used in phase 2 and phase 3 based on the characteristic of independent variable.ResultsThe Baidu Search Index of all keywords in Wuhan was significantly higher than Hubei (excluded Wuhan) and China (excluded Hubei). Before the causative pathogen was identified, the search volume of "Influenza" and "Pneumonia" in Wuhan increased with the number of new onset cases, their correlation coefficient was 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. After the pathogen was public but before COVID-19 was classified as a notifiable disease, the search volume of "SARS", "Pneumonia", "Coronavirus" in all study areas increased with the number of new onset cases with the correlation coefficient was 0.69 ~ 0.89, while "Influenza" changed to negative correlated (rs: -0.56 ~ -0.64). After COVID-19 was closely monitored, the Baidu Search Index of "COVID-19", "Pneumonia", "Coronavirus", "SARS" and "Mask" could predict the epidemic trend with 15 days, 5 days and 6 days lead time, respectively in Wuhan, Hubei (excluded Wuhan) and China (excluded Hubei). The predicted number of cases would increase 1.84 and 4.81 folds, respectively than the actual number of cases in Wuhan and Hubei (excluded Wuhan) from 21 January to 9 February.ConclusionThe Baidu Search Index could be used in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19, but the search keywords changed in different period. Considering the time lag from onset to diagnosis, especially in the areas with medical resources shortage, internet search data can be a highly effective supplement of the existing surveillance system.

Project description:The exponential growth of high-throughput sequencing (HTS) data on the microbial communities presents researchers with an unparalleled opportunity to delve deeper into the association of microorganisms with host phenotype. However, this growth also poses a challenge, as microbial data are complex, sparse, discrete, and prone to zero inflation. Herein, by utilizing 10 distinct counting models for analyzing simulated data, we proposed an innovative Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model that is capable of identifying differentially abundant taxa associated with distinctive host phenotypes and quantifying the effects of covariates on these taxa. Our proposed model exhibits excellent accuracy compared with conventional Hurdle and INLA models, especially in scenarios characterized by inflation and overdispersion. Moreover, we confirm that dispersion parameters significantly affect the accuracy of model results, with defects gradually alleviating as the number of analyzed samples increases. Subsequently applying our model to amplicon data in real multi-ethnic children cohort, we found that only a subset of taxa were identified as having zero inflation in real data, suggesting that the prevailing understanding and processing of microbial count data in most previous microbiome studies were overly dogmatic. In practice, our pipeline of integrating bacterial differential abundance in microbiome data and relevant covariates is effective and feasible. Taken together, our method is expected to be extended to the microbiota studies of various multi-cohort populations.ImportanceThe microbiome is closely associated with physical indicators of the body, such as height, weight, age and BMI, which can be used as measures of human health. Accurately identifying which taxa in the microbiome are closely related to indicators of physical development is valuable as microbial markers of regional child growth trajectory. Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model, a type of Bayesian generalized linear model, can be effectively modeled in complex biological systems. We present an innovative ZINB regression model that is capable of identifying differentially abundant taxa associated with distinctive host phenotypes and quantifying the effects of covariates on these taxa, and demonstrate that its accuracy is superior to traditional Hurdle and INLA models. Our pipeline of integrating bacterial differential abundance in microbiome data and relevant covariates is effective and feasible.

Project description:BackgroundTwo characteristics of commonly used outcomes in medical research are zero inflation and non-negative integers; examples include the number of hospital admissions or emergency department visits, where the majority of patients will have zero counts. Zero-inflated regression models were devised to analyze this type of data. However, the performance of zero-inflated regression models or the properties of data best suited for these analyses have not been thoroughly investigated.MethodsWe conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of two generalized linear models, negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial, for analyzing zero-inflated count data. Simulation scenarios assumed a randomized controlled trial design and varied the true underlying distribution, sample size, and rate of zero inflation. We compared the models in terms of bias, mean squared error, and coverage. Additionally, we used logistic regression to determine which data properties are most important for predicting the best-fitting model.ResultsWe first found that, regardless of the rate of zero inflation, there was little difference between the conventional negative binomial and its zero-inflated counterpart in terms of bias of the marginal treatment group coefficient. Second, even when the outcome was simulated from a zero-inflated distribution, a negative binomial model was favored above its ZI counterpart in terms of the Akaike Information Criterion. Third, the mean and skewness of the non-zero part of the data were stronger predictors of model preference than the percentage of zero counts. These results were not affected by the sample size, which ranged from 60 to 800.ConclusionsWe recommend that the rate of zero inflation and overdispersion in the outcome should not be the sole and main justification for choosing zero-inflated regression models. Investigators should also consider other data characteristics when choosing a model for count data. In addition, if the performance of the NB and ZINB regression models is reasonably comparable even with ZI outcomes, we advocate the use of the NB regression model due to its clear and straightforward interpretation of the results.

Dataset Information

A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model for the integrative analysis of microbiome data.

Publications

A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model for the integrative analysis of microbiome data.

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