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A Generic Nomogram Predicting the Stage of Liver Fibrosis Based on Serum Biochemical Indicators Among Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

ABSTRACT: Introduction: Liver fibrosis staging is of great importance for reducing unnecessary injuries and prompting treatment in chronic viral hepatitis B patients. Liver biopsy is not suitable to act a screening method although it is a gold standard because of various shortcomings. This study aimed to establish a predictive nomogram as a convenient tool to effectively identify potential patients with different stages of liver fibrosis for patients with chronic hepatitis B. Methods: A nomogram for multinomial model was developed in a training set to calculate the probability for each stage of fibrosis and tested in a validation set. Fibrosis stages were subgrouped as followed: severe fibrosis/cirrhosis (F3-F4), moderate fibrosis (F2), and nil-mild fibrosis (F0-F1). The indicators were demographic characteristics and biochemical indicators of patients. Continuous indicators were divided into several groups according to the optimal candidate value generated by the decision tree. Results: This study recruited 964 HBV patients undergoing percutaneous liver biopsy. The multinomial model with 10 indicators was transformed into the final nomogram. The calibration plot showed a good agreement between nomogram-predicted and observed probability of different fibrosis stages. Areas under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROCs) for severe fibrosis/cirrhosis were 0.809 for training set and 0.879 for validation set. For moderate fibrosis, the AUROCs were 0.75 and 0.781. For nil-mild fibrosis, the AUROCs were 0.792 and 0.843. All the results above showed great predictive performance in predicting the stage of fibrosis by our nomogram. Conclusion: Our model demonstrated good discrimination and extensibility in internal and external validation. The proposed nomogram in this study resulted in great reliability and it can be widely used as a convenient and efficient way.

SUBMITTER: Xu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8488358 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Abstract Background and Aim The aim was to analyze the concordance of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) either by transient elastography (TE) or ARFI with liver biopsy in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) patients with biochemical remission and to identify those with histological remission. Liver biopsy is still the golden standard for AIH diagnosis. However, it is an invasive procedure and these patients, most of the time, require many biopsies, so it would be valuable to search for noninvasive method that could select all these patients and keep under observation. Methods Thirty‐three patients with AIH were submitted for liver biopsy to evaluate histological remission after at least 18 months of normal aminotransferases. The efficiency of LSM and fibrosis stages was tested by a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (AUROC). Results One patient (3%) was F0, 6 (18.2%) were F1, 8 (24.2%) were F2, 10 (30.3%) were F3, and 8 (24.2%) were F4, according to METAVIR. Thirteen of thirty‐three (39.4%) patients did not achieve histological remission. AUROC for F4 stage was 0.83 (IC: 0.76–0.99) for TE and 0.78 (IC: 0.65–0.95) for ARFI. Optimal LSM cutoff values were 12.3 kPa (Se = 87.5%, Sp = 88%) for TE and 1.65 m/s (Se = 87.5%, Sp = 76%) for ARFI. The tests were unable to differentiate patients with histological activity from those in histological remission (P < 0.05). Conclusion TE and ARFI accurately identify liver fibrosis by METAVIR score in AIH patients with biochemical remission. No cutoff value was detected to indicate whether the patient achieved histological remission. We present the results of the assessment of liver fibrosis by noninvasive methods (TE/ARFI) in 33 patients with autoimmune hepatitis in biochemical remission and defined the optimal cutoff values for advanced fibrosis. For fibrosis stage F ≥ 3, optimal stiffness cutoff values were 8.7kPa (Se = 72.2%, Sp = 80%) for TE, and 1.5 m/s (Se = 66.7%, Sp = 80%) for fibrosis stage F = 4, cutoff values were 12.3 kPa (Se = 87.5%, Sp = 88%) for TE, and 1.65 m/s (Se = 87.5%, Sp = 76%) for ARFI. This is the first study to evaluate the accuracy of the method to evaluate remission only in patients already under immunosuppressive treatment with biochemical remission, with clearly defined end points of treatment, which enhances its results.

Project description:Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) virus continues to be a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The diagnosis of liver fibrosis has a key role in selecting patients with CHB for antiviral treatment. However, serum biomarkers demonstrate limited diagnostic utility. The present study aimed to compare the performances of fibrosis biomarkers for diagnosing significant liver fibrosis that indicates the need for antiviral therapy in patients with CHB and to identify the most appropriate biomarker for these patients. The current study included 96 antiviral-naïve patients with CHB who underwent liver biopsy. METAVIR scoring system was used to assess liver fibrosis and necroinflammation. The diagnostic performances were evaluated of the platelet (PLT) count; the levels of hyaluronan, serum 7S domain of type 4 collagen, procollagen type III N-terminal peptide, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1, Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) and N-terminal type III collagen propeptide (Pro-C3); the fibrosis index based on four factors; the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index; and enhanced liver fibrosis score for identifying significant liver fibrosis [?fibrosis stage 2 (F2)]. All fibrosis biomarkers, except the Pro-C3 level, correlated with the fibrosis stage. M2BPGi was better than other biomarkers for diagnosing ?F2, with the highest area under the curve of 0.902. M2BPGi demonstrated a higher diagnostic accuracy for significant fibrosis than mild/severe fibrosis or cirrhosis. However, no significant correlation was observed between the M2BPGi level and fibrosis stage in patients with CHB having significant liver necroinflammation defined as ? necroinflammatory activity 2. The M2BPGi level and PLT count were exclusively correlated with the fibrosis stage in 73 patients without significant liver necroinflammation. M2BPGi demonstrated the highest diagnostic performance for significant fibrosis in patients having significant liver fibrosis with no significant liver necroinflammation. In conclusion, the M2BPGi level can accurately diagnose significant liver fibrosis that indicates the need for antiviral therapy in patients with CHB.

Project description:BackgroundNon-invasive evaluation for liver fibrosis is clinically important, especially in patients with undetectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA treated with nucleoside analogs.AimTo clarify the monitoring power of hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) for hepatic histologic changes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treated with entecavir.MethodsThis prospective multicenter study used multiple ordinal and multivariate logistics regression analysis to assess variables associated with Ishak fibrosis score and regression for fibrosis regression, respectively, in 403 CHB patients, including 374 with entecavir for 72 weeks (291 underwent paired liver biopsy) and 29 as controls.ResultsLevel of HBcrAg correlated negatively with liver fibrosis staging (γ = -0.357, P < 0.001) in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive patients, and positively with liver fibrosis staging in HBeAg-negative patients. Higher HBcrAg concentration was associated with younger age, HBeAg positive status, high HBV DNA loads, high level of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and higher necroinflammation, but not with HBV genotype. Serum concentration of HBcrAg, basal core promoter/precore (BCP/PC) mutant, quantitation of HBsAg (qHBsAg) and platelet counts were independently associated with Ishak fibrosis score on multiple ordinal regression. HBV DNA was undetectable in 88.37% of patients treated with entecavir at week 72, while their level of HBcrAg was still detectable. A greater reduction in post-treatment HBcrAg concentration was associated with the regression of hepatic fibrosis and histological improvement. HBcrAg concentration > 6.33 log IU/mL at baseline and logarithmic reduction > 1.03 log IU/mL at week 72 were associated with a higher chance of regression of liver fibrosis and histological improvement, respectively.ConclusionHBcrAg level is associated with liver fibrosis progression. HBcrAg is an excellent monitor of hepatic histological changes, especially in CHB patients treated with nucleoside analogs.

Project description:ObjectiveHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. This study aims to construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in HCC patients with severe liver fibrosis.MethodsData on 1,878 HCC patients with severe liver fibrosis in the period 1975 to 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER). Patients were block-randomized (1,316 training cohort, 562 validation cohort) by setting random seed. Univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses were employed to select variables for the nomogram. The consistency index (C-index), the area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC), and calibration curves were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA), the C-index, the net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to compare the nomogram with the AJCC tumor staging system. We also compared the risk stratification of the nomogram with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system.ResultsSeven variables were selected to establish the nomogram. The C-index (training cohort: 0.781, 95%CI: 0.767-0.793; validation cohort: 0.793, 95%CI = 95%CI: 0.779-0.798) and the time-dependent AUCs (the training cohort: the values of 1-, 3-, and 5 years were 0.845, 0.835, and 0.842, respectively; the validation cohort: the values of 1-, 3-, and 5 years were 0.861, 0.870, and 0.876, respectively) showed satisfactory discrimination. The calibration plots also revealed that the nomogram was consistent with the actual observations. NRI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS: 0.42, 0.61, and 0.67; validation cohort: 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS: 0.26, 0.52, and 0.72) and IDI (training cohort: 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS:0.16, 0.20, and 0.22; validation cohort: 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS: 0.17, 0.26, and 0.30) indicated that the established nomogram significantly outperformed the AJCC staging system (P < 0.001). Moreover, DCA also showed that the nomogram was more practical and had better recognition.ConclusionA nomogram for predicting CSS for HCC patients with severe liver fibrosis was established and validated, which provided a new system of risk stratification as a practical tool for individualized treatment and management.

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A Generic Nomogram Predicting the Stage of Liver Fibrosis Based on Serum Biochemical Indicators Among Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

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