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Development and validation of nomogram based on a novel platelet index score to predict prognosis in patients with renal cell carcinoma

ABSTRACT: Purpose: This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram based on a novel platelet index score (PIS) to predict prognosis in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Patients and methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 759 consecutive patients with RCC. The Kaplan-Meier curves were performed to analyze the platelet parameters and PIS was established. The patients were randomly divided into training (N=456, 60%) and validation cohorts (N=303, 40%). The nomogram was created based on the factors determined by multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression of the training cohort. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of our nomogram in both training and validation cohorts. And then the nomogram was compared with other reported models. Results: High platelet count (PLT>285×109/L) and low platelet distribution width (PDW≤10.95fL) were associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS). Thus, PLT and PDW were incorporated in a novel score system called PIS. On multivariable analysis of training cohort, PIS, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, and sarcomatoid differentiation were independent prognostic factors, which were all selected into the nomogram. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination in both training (C-index: 0.835) and validation cohorts (C-index: 0.883). The calibration curves also showed good agreement between prediction and observation in both cohorts. The C-index of the nomogram (C-index: 0.810~0.902) for predicting 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year PFS were significantly higher than Leibovich (C-index: 0.772~0.813), SSIGN (C-index: 0.775~0.876), Cindolo (C-index: 0.642~0.798), Yaycioglu (C-index: 0.648~0.804), MSKCC (C-index: 0.761~0.862), Karakiewicz (C-index: 0.747~0.851), and AJCC stage models (C-index: 0.759~0.864). Conclusion: The nomogram based on a novel PIS could offer better risk stratification in patients with RCC.

SUBMITTER: Xiao R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8489122 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:PurposeThe present study aims to comprehensively investigate the prognostic value of a radiomic nomogram that integrates contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) radiomic signature and clinicopathological parameters in kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC).MethodsA total of 136 and 78 KIRC patients from the training and validation cohorts were included in the retrospective study. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess reproducibility of radiomic feature extraction. Univariate Cox analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) as well as multivariate Cox analysis were utilized to construct radiomic signature and clinical signature in the training cohort. A prognostic nomogram was established containing a radiomic signature and clinicopathological parameters by using a multivariate Cox analysis. The predictive ability of the nomogram [relative operating characteristic curve (ROC), concordance index (C-index), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and calibration curve] was evaluated in the training cohort and validated in the validation cohort. Patients were split into high- and low-risk groups, and the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method was conducted to identify the forecasting ability of the established models. In addition, genes related with the radiomic risk score were determined by weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) and were used to conduct functional analysis.ResultsA total of 2,944 radiomic features were acquired from the tumor volumes of interest (VOIs) of CECT images. The radiomic signature, including ten selected features, and the clinical signature, including three selected clinical variables, showed good performance in the training and validation cohorts [area under the curve (AUC), 0.897 and 0.712 for the radiomic signature; 0.827 and 0.822 for the clinical signature, respectively]. The radiomic prognostic nomogram showed favorable performance and calibration in the training cohort (AUC, 0.896, C-index, 0.846), which was verified in the validation cohort (AUC, 0.768). KM curves indicated that the progression-free interval (PFI) time was dramatically shorter in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group. The functional analysis indicated that radiomic signature was significantly associated with T cell activation.ConclusionsThe nomogram combined with CECT radiomic and clinicopathological signatures exhibits excellent power in predicting the PFI of KIRC patients, which may aid in clinical management and prognostic evaluation of cancer patients.

Project description:BackgroundEarly-onset gastric cancer (EOGC, ≤45 years old) is characterized with increasing incidence and more malignant phenotypes compared with late-onset gastric cancer, which exhibits remarkable immune cell infiltration and is potential immunotherapeutic population. Till now, restricted survival information of EOGC is available due to limited case numbers. This study established a novel nomogram to help evaluate cancer-specific survival (CSS) of EOGC patients who underwent gastrectomy, and may provide evidence for predicting patients' survival.MethodsWe retrospectively enrolled a cohort containing 555 EOGC cases from five independent medical centers in China, among which 388 cases were randomly selected into a training set while the other 167 cases were assigned into the internal validation set. Asian or Pacific Islander (API) patients diagnosed with EOGC during 1975-2016 were retrieved from the SEER database (n=299) and utilized as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to test prognostic significances of clinicopathological factors in the training set. Accordingly, two survival nomogram models were established and compared by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and decision curve analyses (DCA).ResultsThe 5-year CSS rate of training cohort was 61.3% with a median survival time as 97.2 months. High consistency was observed on calibration curves in all three cohorts. Preferred nomogram was selected due to its better performance on ROC and DCA results. Accordingly, a novel predicative risk model was introduced to better stratify high-risk EOGC patients with low-risk patients. In brief, the 5-year CSS rates for low-risk groups were 92.9% in training set, 83.1% in internal validation set, 89.9% in combined NQSQS cohort, and 85.3% in SEER-API cohort. In contrast, the 5-year CSS rates decreased to 38.5%, 44.3%, 40.5%, and 36.9% in the high-risk groups of the four cohorts above, respectively. The significant survival difference between high-risk group (HRG) and low-risk group (LRG) indicated the precise accuracy of our risk model. Furthermore, the risk model was validated in patients with different TNM stages, respectively. Finally, an EOGC web-based survival calculator was established with public access, which can help predict prognosis.ConclusionsOur data provided a precise nomogram on predicting CSS of EOGC patients with potential clinical applicability.

Project description:Objective: The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has proposed a grading system to classify renal cell carcinoma (RCC). However, classification using biopsy specimens remains problematic and, consequently, the accuracy of a biopsy-based diagnosis is relatively poor. This study aims to combine clinical and immunohistochemical (IHC) factors for the prediction of high ISUP grade clear cell RCC (ccRCC) in an attempt to complement and improve the accuracy of a biopsy-based diagnosis. Methods: A total of 362 ccRCC patients were enrolled in this study and used for the training set. We performed IHC analysis of 18 protein markers on standard tissue sections using an automated stainer. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed to evaluate independent predictors for high ISUP grade. We evaluated different prediction models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUC) analysis. A nomogram for the derivation of an integrated score for predicting high ISUP grade ccRCC and a calibration curve were also plotted. Finally, an internal validation cohort was examined to evaluate the performance of our integrated scoring system and nomogram. Results: Multivariate logistic analyses revealed seven credible candidates for predicting high grade ISUP. These were age, tumor diameter, surgery, and CK7, Ki-67, PTEN, and MTOR protein expression. The ROC curves for the clinical, IHC and integrated models were compared in the training set, and the AUC for each was 0.731, 0.744, and 0.801, respectively. DeLong's test showed that the integrated model was significantly better at predicting high ISUP grade, when compared with the other models. Internal validation confirmed the good performance of the integrated score in predicting ISUP grade. Conclusion: We have developed a nomogram integrating clinical and immunohistochemical parameters to predict high ISUP grade for M0 ccRCC patients. This nomogram may offer potentially useful information during preoperative individualized patient risk assessment, and consequently may help urologists when planning personalized management regimens.

Project description:BackgroundLack of adequate objectivity and universality, available models are still difficult to be applied to clinical practice in predicting occult cervical metastasis of early oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Taking abnormal metabolic state into consideration, the current model is helpful to distinguish those patients with or without occult cervical metastasis.MethodsThis study retrospectively analyzed 330 OSCC patients initially diagnosed cT1-2N0M0 stage and received neck dissection from January 2020 to July 2022. The occult cervical metastasis was identified by pathological examination.. After screening independent risk factors using logistic regression, patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at the ratio of 2:1 randomly, and a novel diagnostic model was constructed. Performances of this model were evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC), calibrating curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).ResultsOf the 330 included patients {age mean [standard deviation (SD)], 61.24 (12.99) years; 202 (61.2%) males}, 49 (14.8%) had occult nodal metastasis. Five variables, including body mass index (BMI) [high odds ratio (OR): 1.132; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.019-1.258, P=0.021], primary tumor site (tongue & floor of mouth (TF) OR: 3.756; 95% CI: 1.295-10.898, P=0.015), depth of invasion (DOI) (5-10 mm OR: 2.973; 95% CI: 1.266-6.981; P=0.012), pathological differentiation (Poor differentiation OR: 2.65; 95% CI: 1.341-5.239; P=0.005), and diabetes (OR: 3.123; 95% CI: 1.23-7.929; P=0.017) were screened to establish the predictive model. In training cohort (n=220), this model achieved an AUC of 0.814 and had a sensitivity of 78.1% and specificity of 70.2%. Calibration plots showed favorable consistency between the prediction of the model and actual observations (Hosmer-Lemeshow value >0.05). Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) showed the model was clinically useful and had better discriminative ability under the threshold probability of 0.5. Above evaluations were verified in the validation cohort (n=110). Compared to previous reported models, the concordance index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) values were superior in both training and validation cohorts (P<0.05).ConclusionsThis constructed model might have reference value for clinicians in making neck management decisions of early OSCC patients.

Project description:To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study established a nomogram to predict survival probability in Asian patients with LSCC. A risk prediction nomogram for patients with LSCC, incorporating easily assessable clinicopathologic factors, generates more precise estimations of the survival probability when compared TNM stage alone, but still need additional data before being used in clinical application. Due to a wide variation of tumor behavior, prediction of survival in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients received curative-intent surgery is an important but formidable challenge. We attempted to establish a nomogram to precisely predict survival probability in LSCC patients. A total of 369 consecutive LSCC patients underwent curative resection between 2008 and 2012 at Hunan Province Cancer Hospital were included in the present study. Subsequently, 369 LSCC patients were assigned to a training set (N=261) and a validation set (N=108) at random. On the basis of multivariable Cox regression analysis results, we developed a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were confirmed by calibration curve and a concordance index (C-index), and compared with TNM stage system by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Six independent parameters to predict prognosis were age, pack years, N-stage, lymph node ratio (LNR), anemia and albumin, which were all assembled into the nomogram. The calibration curve verified excellent models' concordance. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.73 (0.68-0.78), and the area under curve (AUC) of nomogram in predicting overall survival (OS) was 0.766, which were significantly higher than traditional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis further demonstrated that our nomogram had a larger net benefit than the TNM stage. A risk prediction nomogram for patients with LSCC, incorporating easily assessable clinicopathologic factors, generates more precise estimations of the survival probability when compared TNM stage alone, but still need additional data before being used in clinical application.

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Development and validation of nomogram based on a novel platelet index score to predict prognosis in patients with renal cell carcinoma

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