Household cooking fuel estimates at global and country level for 1990 to 2030.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Stoner O
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8490351 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundExposure to household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels in simple stoves is a major health risk. Modeling reliable estimates of solid fuel use is needed for monitoring trends and informing policy.ObjectivesIn order to revise the disease burden attributed to household air pollution for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project and for international reporting purposes, we estimated annual trends in the world population using solid fuels.MethodsWe developed a multilevel model based on national survey data on primary cooking fuel.ResultsThe proportion of households relying mainly on solid fuels for cooking has decreased from 62% (95% CI: 58, 66%) to 41% (95% CI: 37, 44%) between 1980 and 2010. Yet because of population growth, the actual number of persons exposed has remained stable at around 2.8 billion during three decades. Solid fuel use is most prevalent in Africa and Southeast Asia where > 60% of households cook with solid fuels. In other regions, primary solid fuel use ranges from 46% in the Western Pacific, to 35% in the Eastern Mediterranean and < 20% in the Americas and Europe.ConclusionMultilevel modeling is a suitable technique for deriving reliable solid-fuel use estimates. Worldwide, the proportion of households cooking mainly with solid fuels is decreasing. The absolute number of persons using solid fuels, however, has remained steady globally and is increasing in some regions. Surveys require enhancement to better capture the health implications of new technologies and multiple fuel use.
| S-EPMC3701999 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionSwitching from polluting (e.g. wood, crop waste, coal) to clean cooking fuels (e.g. gas, electricity) can reduce household air pollution (HAP) exposures and climate-forcing emissions. While studies have evaluated specific interventions and assessed fuel-switching in repeated cross-sectional surveys, the role of different multilevel factors in household fuel switching, outside of interventions and across diverse community settings, is not well understood.MethodsWe examined longitudinal survey data from 24,172 households in 177 rural communities across nine countries within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. We assessed household-level primary cooking fuel switching during a median of 10 years of follow up (~2005-2015). We used hierarchical logistic regression models to examine the relative importance of household, community, sub-national and national-level factors contributing to primary fuel switching.ResultsOne-half of study households (12,369) reported changing their primary cooking fuels between baseline and follow up surveys. Of these, 61% (7,582) switched from polluting (wood, dung, agricultural waste, charcoal, coal, kerosene) to clean (gas, electricity) fuels, 26% (3,109) switched between different polluting fuels, 10% (1,164) switched from clean to polluting fuels and 3% (522) switched between different clean fuels. Among the 17,830 households using polluting cooking fuels at baseline, household-level factors (e.g. larger household size, higher wealth, higher education level) were most strongly associated with switching from polluting to clean fuels in India; in all other countries, community-level factors (e.g. larger population density in 2010, larger increase in population density between 2005-2015) were the strongest predictors of polluting-to-clean fuel switching.ConclusionsThe importance of community and sub-national factors relative to household characteristics in determining polluting-to-clean fuel switching varied dramatically across the nine countries examined. This highlights the potential importance of national and other contextual factors in shaping large-scale clean cooking transitions among rural communities in low- and middle-income countries.
| S-EPMC7995525 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Estimates of the global population of humans living at high altitude vary widely, and such data at the country level are unavailable. Herein, we use a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach to quantify human population at 500-m elevation intervals for each country. Based on georeferenced data for population (LandScan Global 2019) and elevation (Global Multiresolution Terrain Elevation Data), 500.3 million humans live at ≥1,500 m, 81.6 million at ≥2,500 m, and 14.4 million at ≥3,500 m. Ethiopia has the largest absolute population at ≥1,500 m and ≥2,500 m, while China has the greatest at ≥3,500 m. Lesotho has the greatest percentage of its population above 1,500 m, while Bolivia has the greatest at ≥2,500 m and ≥3,500 m. High altitude presents a myriad of environmental stresses that provoke physiological responses and adaptation, and consequently impact disease prevalence and severity. While the majority of high-altitude physiology research is based upon lowlanders from western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic countries ascending to high altitude, the global population distribution of high-altitude residents encourages an increased emphasis on understanding high-altitude physiology, adaptation, epidemiology, and public health in the ∼500 million permanent high-altitude residents.
| S-EPMC8106311 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Women bear a large share of disease burden caused by household air pollution due to their great involvement in domestic activities. Pollutant emissions are believed to vary by exposure patterns such as cooking and space heating. Little is known about the independent effect of solid cooking fuel combustion on breast cancer risk. We aimed to examine the association of indoor coal and wood combustion for cooking with breast cancer risk. Methods: During June 2004-July 2008, participants aged 30-79 from 10 diverse regions across China were enrolled in the China Kadoorie Biobank. Primary cooking fuel use information in up to three residences was self-reported at baseline. Multivariable logistic regression models yielded adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A total of 290,396 female participants aged 30-79 were included in the main analysis. Compared with long-term clean fuel users, the fully adjusted ORs were 2.07 (95%CI: 1.37-3.13) for long-term coal users, 1.12 (95% CI: 0.72-1.76) for long-term wood users, and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.55-1.74) for those who used mixed solid fuels to cook. Those who had switched from solid to clean fuels did not have an excess risk of breast cancer (OR: 0.88, 95%CI 0.71-1.10). Conclusion: Long-term solid fuel combustion for cooking may increase the risk of breast cancer. The strength of association is stronger among coal users than wood users. Targeted interventions are needed to accelerate the access to clean and affordable energy.
| S-EPMC8371394 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background'Indirect' causes of maternal death including concomitant illnesses such as infectious and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), accounted for 23% of maternal deaths in Indonesia in 2010. Reproductive-age women in Indonesia face a "double burden" of disease with increasing rates of NCDs and persisting rates of infectious disease. However, there is a lack of data on the burden of these diseases in pregnancy. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence of concomitant illnesses among pregnant women in Indonesia from 1990-2030.MethodsPublicly available data was accessed including incidence of concomitant illnesses in Indonesian reproductive-age women, population data and crude birth rate data from 1990-2019, and formed basis for projections to 2030. A dataset of estimates for all variables was generated for each year and sampled from a binomial distribution. Using these estimates, pregnancy estimates and incidence in pregnant women were calculated. A cubic splines model was fitted to generate estimates of incidence of concomitant illnesses in pregnancy.FindingsPast trends to 2019 show a decline in incident cases of infectious diseases except for HIV/AIDs, and an increase in most NCDs. In 2019, the most common disease was sexually transmitted infections. From 2020-2030, incidences of diabetes and lower respiratory infections are estimated to continue to increase.InterpretationWith an increasing incidence of NCDs and high-incidence of infectious diseases in pregnancy, Indonesian policymakers and stakeholders should consider what evidence-based strategies and interventions are best to reduce potential impacts of concomitant illnesses on pregnancy outcomes.FundingAustralian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.
| S-EPMC8315454 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHousehold air pollution (HAP) due to biomass cooking fuel use is an important risk factor for a range of diseases, especially among adult women who are primary cooks, in India. About 80% of rural households in India use biomass fuel for cooking. The aim of this study is to estimate the attributable cases (AC) for four major diseases/conditions associated with biomass cooking fuel use among adult Indian women.MethodsWe used the population attributable fraction (PAF) method to calculate the AC of chronic bronchitis, tuberculosis (TB), cataract, and stillbirths due to exposure to biomass cooking fuel. A number of data sources were accessed to obtain population totals and disease prevalence rates. A meta-analysis was conducted to obtain adjusted pooled odds ratios (ORs) for strength of association. Using this, PAF and AC were calculated using a standard formula. Results were presented as number of AC and 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsThe fixed effects pooled OR obtained from the meta-analysis were 2.37 (95% CI: 1.59, 3.54) for chronic bronchitis, 2.33 (1.65, 3.28) for TB, 2.16 (1.42, 3.26) for cataract, and 1.26 (1.12, 1.43) for stillbirths. PAF varied across conditions being maximum (53%) for chronic bronchitis in rural areas and least (1%) for cataract in older age and urban areas. About 2.4 (95% CI: 1.4, 3.1) of 5.6 m cases of chronic bronchitis, 0.3 (0.2, 0.4) of 0.76 m cases of TB, 5.0 (2.8, 6.7) of 51.4 m cases of cataract among adult Indian women and 0.02 (0.01, 0.03) of 0.15 m stillbirths across India are attributable to HAP due to biomass cooking fuel. These estimates should be cautiously interpreted in the light of limitations discussed which relate to exposure assessment, exposure characterization, and age-specific prevalence of disease.ConclusionsHAP due to biomass fuel has diverse and major impacts on women's health in India. Although challenging, incorporating the agenda of universal clean fuel access or cleaner technology within the broader framework of rural development will go a long way in reducing disease burden.
| S-EPMC4221659 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Approximately 3 billion people, worldwide, rely primarily on biomass for cooking. This study aimed to investigate the association between respiratory symptoms among women in charge of household cooking and the type of fuel used for cooking. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted. A total of 1705 women that were randomly selected, completed the survey. We also performed a bivariate and a multivariate analysis to verify the possible associations between respiratory symptoms in women in charge of household cooking and the type of cooking fuel used. Results: Dry cough, breathing difficulties, and throat irritation frequencies were statistically high in biomass fuel users when compared to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) users. It was also the case for some chronic respiratory symptoms, such as sputum production, shortness of breath, wheezing, wheezing with dyspnea, wheezing without a cold, waking up with shortness of breath, waking up with coughing attacks, and waking up with breathing difficulty. After adjustment for the respondents' and households' characteristics; dry cough, breathing difficulties, sneezing, nose tingling, throat irritation, chronic sputum production, wheezing, wheezing with dyspnea, wheezing without a cold, waking up with shortness of breath, waking up with coughing attacks, and waking up with breathing difficulty were symptoms that remained associated to biomass fuel compared to LPG. Women who used charcoal reported the highest proportion of all the chronic respiratory symptoms compared to the firewood users. However, this difference was not statistically significant except for the wheezing, waking up with coughing attacks, and waking up with breath difficulty, after adjustment. Conclusion: Exposure to biomass smoke is responsible for respiratory health problems in women. Charcoal, which is often considered as a clean fuel compared to other biomass fuels and often recommended as an alternative to firewood, also presents health risks, including increased respiratory morbidity in women. Effective and efficient energy policies are needed to accelerate the transition to clean and sustainable energies.
| S-EPMC6466344 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and partners set the 90-90-90 target for the year 2020: diagnose 90% of all people living with HIV (PLHIV); treat 90% of people who know their status; and suppress the virus in 90% of people on treatment. In 2015, countries began reporting to UNAIDS on progress against 90-90-90 using standard definitions and methods. METHODS:We used data submitted to UNAIDS from 170 countries to assess country-specific progress towards 90-90-90 through 2018. To assess global and regional progress, overall and by sex for adults aged 15 years and older, we combined country-reported data with estimates generated with a Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS:A total of 60 countries reported on all three 90s in 2018, up from 23 in 2015. Among all PLHIV worldwide, 79% (67-92%) knew their HIV status. Of these, 78% (69-82%) were accessing treatment and 86% (72-92%) of people accessing treatment had suppressed viral loads. Of the 37.9 million (32.7-44.0 million) PLHIV worldwide, 53% (43-63%) had suppressed viral loads. The gap to fully achieving 73% of PLHIV with suppressed viral load was 7.7 million; 15 countries had already achieved this target by 2018. CONCLUSION:Increased data availability has led to improved measures of country and global progress towards the 90-90-90 target. Although gains in access to testing and treatment continue, many countries and regions are unlikely to reach the 90-90-90 target by 2020.
| S-EPMC6919229 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLeukaemia is a devastating disease with an incidence that progressively increases with advancing age. The World Health Organization has designated 2021-30 as the decade of healthy ageing, highlighting the need to address age-related diseases. We estimated the disease burden of leukaemia and forecasted it by 2030.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database, we systematically analysed the geographical distribution of leukaemia and its subtypes. We used Joinpoint regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort models to evaluate incidence and mortality trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections through 2030. We analysed five leukaemia subtypes and the impact of age, gender, and social development. Decomposition analysis revealed the effects of disease burden on ageing and population growth. We used frontier analysis to illustrate the potential of each country to reduce its burden based on its development levels.ResultsGlobally, the absolute numbers of leukaemia incidence and mortality have increased, while the age-standardised rates (ASRs) have shown a decreasing trend. The disease burden was more pronounced in men, the elderly, and regions with a high socio-demographic index (SDI), where ageing and population growth played varying roles across subtypes. From 2000 to 2006, disease burdens were most effectively controlled. Global ASRs of incidence might stabilise, while ASRs of death are expected to decrease until 2030. Frontier analysis showed that middle and high-middle SDI countries have the most improvement potential. Smoking and high body mass index were the main risk factors for leukaemia-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years.ConclusionsThe absolute number of leukaemia cases has increased worldwide, but there has been a sharp decline in ASRs over the past decade, primarily driven by population growth and ageing. Countries with middle and high-middle SDI urgently need to take action to address this challenge.
| S-EPMC11345035 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo plan for the financial sustainability of immunization programs and make informed decisions to improve immunization coverage and equity, decision-makers need to know how much these programs cost beyond the cost of the vaccine. Non-vaccine delivery cost estimates can significantly influence the cost-effectiveness estimates used to allocate resources at the country level. However, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have immunization delivery unit cost estimates available, or have estimates that are uncertain, unreliable, or old. We undertook a Bayesian evidence synthesis to generate country-level estimates of immunization delivery unit costs for LMICs.MethodsFrom a database of empirical immunization costing studies, we extracted estimates of the delivery cost per dose for routine childhood immunization services, excluding vaccine costs. A Bayesian meta-regression model was used to regress delivery cost per dose estimates, stratified by cost category, against a set of predictor variables including country-level [gross domestic product per capita, reported diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis third dose coverage (DTP3), population, and number of doses in the routine vaccination schedule] and study-level (study year, single antigen or programmatic cost per dose, and financial or economic cost) predictors. The fitted prediction model was used to generate standardized estimates of the routine immunization delivery cost per dose for each LMIC for 2009-2018. Alternative regression models were specified in sensitivity analyses.ResultsWe estimated the prediction model using the results from 29 individual studies, covering 24 countries. The predicted economic cost per dose for routine delivery of childhood vaccines (2018 US dollars), not including the price of the vaccine, was $1.87 (95% uncertainty interval $0.64-4.38) across all LMICs. By individual cost category, the programmatic economic cost per dose for routine delivery of childhood vaccines was $0.74 ($0.26-1.70) for labor, $0.26 ($0.08-0.67) for supply chain, $0.22 ($0.06-0.57) for capital, and $0.65 ($0.20-1.66) for other service delivery costs.ConclusionsAccurate immunization delivery costs are necessary for assessing the cost-effectiveness and strategic planning needs of immunization programs. The cost estimates from this analysis provide a broad indication of immunization delivery costs that may be useful when accurate local data are unavailable.
| S-EPMC7437655 | biostudies-literature