Dataset Information

Contact-adjusted Immunity Levels against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea and Prospects for Achieving Herd Immunity.

ABSTRACT: The proportion of population vaccinated cannot be directly translated into the herd immunity. We have to account for the age-stratified contact patterns to calculate the population immunity level, since not every individual gathers evenly. Here, we calculated the contact-adjusted population immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in South Korea using age-specific incidence and vaccine uptake rate. We further explored options to achieve the theoretical herd immunity with age-varying immunity scenarios. As of June 21, 2021, when a quarter of the population received at least one dose of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, the contact-adjusted immunity level was 12.5% under the social distancing level 1. When 80% of individuals aged 10 years and over gained immunity, we could achieve a 58.2% contact-adjusted immunity level. The pros and cons of vaccinating children should be weighed since the risks of COVID-19 for the young are less than the elderly, and the long-term safety of vaccines is still obscure.

SUBMITTER: Chun JY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8490791 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Contact-adjusted Immunity Levels against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea and Prospects for Achieving Herd Immunity.

Chun June Young JY Jeong Hwichang H Kim Yongdai Y

Journal of Korean medical science 20211004 38

The proportion of population vaccinated cannot be directly translated into the herd immunity. We have to account for the age-stratified contact patterns to calculate the population immunity level, since not every individual gathers evenly. Here, we calculated the contact-adjusted population immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in South Korea using age-specific incidence and vaccine uptake rate. We further explored options to achieve the theoretical herd immunity with ...[more]

PMID: 34609093

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Project description:BackgroundVaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns.MethodsWe combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination.ResultsWe found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously.ConclusionsThe immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.

Project description:Introduction: Racial minority groups have been disproportionately affected by the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Vaccine hesitancy may be a major barrier to achieving equitable herd immunity and must be addressed to reduce the excess morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in disproportionately affected communities. This study aimed to determine if COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, and its factors vaccine complacency and confidence, are more prominent among disproportionately affected racial minority groups. Methods:We collected data from participants aged 18 years or older from the four most populous U.S. states, including New York, California, Florida, and Texas, and Canada. Data were collected using a web-based survey platform. Data are available at http://www.covid19-database.com. Results:Data from 4,434 participants were included [mean (SD) age = 48.7 (17.2) and 50.4% women]. Vaccine hesitancy was higher in Black, Indigenous (Native American and Indigenous People of Canada, including First Nations, Inuit and Métis), and Latinx compared to White participants, while no difference was found between East Asian and White participants. The group differences in vaccine hesitancy for Indigenous and Black compared to White participants remained after controlling for sociodemographic factors. Determinants of vaccine complacency were equivalent between disproportionately affected racial groups and white participants. Vaccine confidence (i.e., trust in vaccine benefit) was generally lower in all racial groups compared to White participants. Differences in vaccine mistrust comparing Black and East Asian to White participants remained after controlling for sociodemographic factors. Discussion:Disproportionately affected racial minorities may have higher vaccine hesitancy and lower confidence in COVID-19 vaccines. Public health and other relevant government services should address vaccine hesitancy among racial minorities using a culturally sensitive, community-centered approach to attain equitable herd immunity.

Dataset Information

Contact-adjusted Immunity Levels against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea and Prospects for Achieving Herd Immunity.

Publications

Contact-adjusted Immunity Levels against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea and Prospects for Achieving Herd Immunity.

Similar Datasets

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