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Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior.

ABSTRACT: Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves-and be perceived by others-as not presenting a risk of infection. Yet, many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates the behavioral decisions of individuals, based on a projection of the system's future state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals' risk misperception in the presence of non-symptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of non-symptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals' behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.

SUBMITTER: Espinoza B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8492713 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The sharp increase in the proportion of asymptomatic cases and the potential risk of virus transmission have greatly increased the difficulty of controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. The individual immune response is closely associated with clinical outcomes and pathogenic mechanisms of COVID-19. However, the clinical characteristics and immunophenotyping features of immune cells of asymptomatic individuals remain somewhat mysterious. To better understand and predict the disease state and progress, we performed a comprehensive analysis of clinical data, laboratory indexes and immunophenotyping features in 41 patients with SARS-CoV-2 (including 24 asymptomatic cases and 17 symptomatic individuals). Firstly, from the perspective of demographic characteristics, the rate of asymptomatic infection was significantly higher in those with younger age. Secondly, the laboratory test results showed that some indexes, such as CRP (acute phase reaction protein), D-Dimer and fibrinogen (the marker for coagulation) were lower in the asymptomatic group. Finally, symptomatic individuals were prone to establishing a non-protective immune phenotype by abnormally decreasing the lymphocyte count and percentage, abnormally increasing the Th17 percentage and decreasing Treg percentage, which therefore cause an increase in the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocytes/lymphocytes ratio (MLR) and Th17/Treg ratio. On the other hand, asymptomatic individuals tended to establish a more effective and protective immune phenotype by maintaining a normal level of lymphocyte count and percentage and a high level of NK cells. At the same time, asymptomatic individuals can establish a relatively balanced immune response through maintaining a low level of monocytes, a relatively low level of Th17 and high level of Treg, which therefore lead to a decrease in MNKR and Th17/Treg ratio and finally the avoidance of excessive inflammatory responses. This may be one of the reasons for their asymptomatic states. This study is helpful to reveal the immunological characteristics of asymptomatic individuals, understand immune pathogenesis of COVID-19 and predict clinical outcomes more precisely. However, owing to small sample sizes, a future study with larger sample size is still warranted.

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Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior.

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