Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Espinoza B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8492713 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) constitute the front-line responses against epidemics. Yet, the interdependence of control measures and individual microeconomics, beliefs, perceptions and health incentives, is not well understood. Epidemics constitute complex adaptive systems where individual behavioral decisions drive and are driven by, among other things, the risk of infection. To study the impact of heterogeneous behavioral responses on the epidemic burden, we formulate a two risk-groups mathematical model that incorporates individual behavioral decisions driven by risk perceptions. Our results show a trade-off between the efforts to avoid infection by the risk-evader population, and the proportion of risk-taker individuals with relaxed infection risk perceptions. We show that, in a structured population, privately computed optimal behavioral responses may lead to an increase in the final size of the epidemic, when compared to the homogeneous behavior scenario. Moreover, we find that uncertain information on the individuals' true health state may lead to worse epidemic outcomes, ultimately depending on the population's risk-group composition. Finally, we find there is a set of specific optimal planning horizons minimizing the final epidemic size, which depend on the population structure.
| S-EPMC9252562 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Given maximal social distancing duration and intensity, how can one minimize the epidemic final size, or equivalently the total number of individuals infected during the outbreak? A complete answer to this question is provided and demonstrated here for the SIR epidemic model. In this simplified setting, the optimal solution consists in enforcing the highest confinement level during the longest allowed period, beginning at a time instant that is the unique solution to certain 1D optimization problem. Based on this result, we present numerical essays showing the best possible performance for a large set of basic reproduction numbers and lockdown durations and intensities.
| S-EPMC7833531 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.
| S-EPMC5156435 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background3q29 deletion syndrome (3q29del) is associated with a significantly increased risk for neurodevelopmental and neuropsychiatric phenotypes. Mild to moderate intellectual disability (ID) is common in this population, and previous work by our team identified substantial deficits in adaptive behavior. However, the full profile of adaptive function in 3q29del has not been described, nor has it been compared to other genomic syndromes associated with elevated risk for neurodevelopmental and neuropsychiatric phenotypes.MethodsIndividuals with 3q29del (n=32, 62.5% male) were evaluated using the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, Third Edition, Comprehensive Parent/Caregiver Form (Vineland-3). We explored the relationship between adaptive behavior and cognitive function, executive function, and neurodevelopmental and neuropsychiatric comorbidities in our 3q29del study sample, and we compared subjects with 3q29del to published data on Fragile X syndrome, 22q11.2 deletion syndrome, and 16p11.2 deletion and duplication syndromes.ResultsIndividuals with 3q29del had global deficits in adaptive behavior that were not driven by specific weaknesses in any given domain. Individual neurodevelopmental and neuropsychiatric diagnoses had a small effect on adaptive behavior, and the cumulative number of comorbid diagnoses was significantly negatively associated with Vineland-3 performance. Both cognitive ability and executive function were significantly associated with adaptive behavior, and executive function was a better predictor of Vineland-3 performance than cognitive ability. Finally, the severity of adaptive behavior deficits in 3q29del was distinct from previously published data on comparable genomic disorders.ConclusionsIndividuals with 3q29del have significant deficits in adaptive behavior, affecting all domains assessed by the Vineland-3. Executive function is a better predictor of adaptive behavior than cognitive ability in this population and suggests that interventions targeting executive function may be an effective therapeutic strategy.
| S-EPMC10104221 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 is spreading within the sort of an enormous epidemic for the globe. This epidemic infects a lot of individuals in Egypt. The World Health Organization states that COVID-19 could be spread from one person to another at a very fast speed through contact and respiratory spray. On these days, Egypt and all countries worldwide should rise to an effective step to investigate this disease and eliminate the effects of this epidemic. In this paper displayed, the real database of COVID-19 for Egypt has been analysed from February 15, 2020, to June 15, 2020, and predicted with the number of patients that will be infected with COVID-19, and estimated the epidemic final size. Several regression analysis models have been applied for data analysis of COVID-19 of Egypt. In this study, we've been applied seven regression analysis-based models that are exponential polynomial, quadratic, third-degree, fourth-degree, fifth-degree, sixth-degree, and logit growth respectively for the COVID-19 dataset. Thus, the exponential, fourth-degree, fifth-degree, and sixth-degree polynomial regression models are excellent models specially fourth-degree model that will help the government preparing their procedures for one month. In addition, we have applied the well-known logit growth regression model and we obtained the following epidemiological insights: Firstly, the epidemic peak could possibly reach at 22-June 2020 and final time of epidemic at 8-September 2020. Secondly, the final total size for cases 1.6676E+05 cases. The action from government of interevent over a relatively long interval is necessary to minimize the final epidemic size.
| S-EPMC7446670 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The sharp increase in the proportion of asymptomatic cases and the potential risk of virus transmission have greatly increased the difficulty of controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. The individual immune response is closely associated with clinical outcomes and pathogenic mechanisms of COVID-19. However, the clinical characteristics and immunophenotyping features of immune cells of asymptomatic individuals remain somewhat mysterious. To better understand and predict the disease state and progress, we performed a comprehensive analysis of clinical data, laboratory indexes and immunophenotyping features in 41 patients with SARS-CoV-2 (including 24 asymptomatic cases and 17 symptomatic individuals). Firstly, from the perspective of demographic characteristics, the rate of asymptomatic infection was significantly higher in those with younger age. Secondly, the laboratory test results showed that some indexes, such as CRP (acute phase reaction protein), D-Dimer and fibrinogen (the marker for coagulation) were lower in the asymptomatic group. Finally, symptomatic individuals were prone to establishing a non-protective immune phenotype by abnormally decreasing the lymphocyte count and percentage, abnormally increasing the Th17 percentage and decreasing Treg percentage, which therefore cause an increase in the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocytes/lymphocytes ratio (MLR) and Th17/Treg ratio. On the other hand, asymptomatic individuals tended to establish a more effective and protective immune phenotype by maintaining a normal level of lymphocyte count and percentage and a high level of NK cells. At the same time, asymptomatic individuals can establish a relatively balanced immune response through maintaining a low level of monocytes, a relatively low level of Th17 and high level of Treg, which therefore lead to a decrease in MNKR and Th17/Treg ratio and finally the avoidance of excessive inflammatory responses. This may be one of the reasons for their asymptomatic states. This study is helpful to reveal the immunological characteristics of asymptomatic individuals, understand immune pathogenesis of COVID-19 and predict clinical outcomes more precisely. However, owing to small sample sizes, a future study with larger sample size is still warranted.
| S-EPMC8468997 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hsf1, well known for its role in acute stress responses, is required for the cell size increase, and that the molecular chaperone Hsp90 is essential for coupling the cell size increase to augmented translation through a translational "rewiring stress response". We propose that this protective process of chronic stress adaptation contributes to the increase in size as cells get older, and that its failure promotes aging.
2023-12-01 | PXD039672 | Pride
Project description:Since the epidemic of COVID-19 was declared in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, and other parts of the world, several studies have been carried out over several regions to observe the development of the epidemic, to predict its duration, and to estimate its final size, using complex models such as the SEIR model or the simpler ones such as the SIR model. These studies showed that the SIR model is much more efficient than the SEIR model; therefore, we are applying this model in the Kingdom of Morocco since the appearance of the first case on 2 March 2020, with the objective of predicting the final size of the epidemic.
| S-EPMC7265685 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-to-person contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpretation and for the development of social distancing policies. Acknowledging adaptive behavior requires a shift in thinking about epidemiological processes and parameters.
| S-EPMC3076845 | biostudies-other
Project description:Overexploitation of common-pool resources, resulting from uncooperative harvest behavior, is a major problem in many social-ecological systems. Feedbacks between user behavior and resource productivity induce non-linear dynamics in the harvest and the resource stock that complicate the understanding and the prediction of the co-evolutionary system. With an adaptive model constrained by data from a behavioral economic experiment, we show that users' expectations of future pay-offs vary as a result of the previous harvest experience, the time-horizon, and the ability to communicate. In our model, harvest behavior is a trait that adjusts to continuously changing potential returns according to a trade-off between the users' current harvest and the discounted future productivity of the resource. Given a maximum discount factor, which quantifies the users' perception of future pay-offs, the temporal dynamics of harvest behavior and ecological resource can be predicted. Our results reveal a non-linear relation between the previous harvest and current discount rates, which is most sensitive around a reference harvest level. While higher than expected returns resulting from cooperative harvesting in the past increase the importance of future resource productivity and foster sustainability, harvests below the reference level lead to a downward spiral of increasing overexploitation and disappointing returns.
| S-EPMC3532302 | biostudies-literature