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No increased circular inference in adults with high levels of autistic traits or autism.

ABSTRACT: Autism spectrum disorders have been proposed to arise from impairments in the probabilistic integration of prior knowledge with sensory inputs. Circular inference is one such possible impairment, in which excitation-to-inhibition imbalances in the cerebral cortex cause the reverberation and amplification of prior beliefs and sensory information. Recent empirical work has associated circular inference with the clinical dimensions of schizophrenia. Inhibition impairments have also been observed in autism, suggesting that signal reverberation might be present in that condition as well. In this study, we collected data from 21 participants with self-reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorders and 155 participants with a broad range of autistic traits in an online probabilistic decision-making task (the fisher task). We used previously established Bayesian models to investigate possible associations between autistic traits or autism and circular inference. There was no correlation between prior or likelihood reverberation and autistic traits across the whole sample. Similarly, no differences in any of the circular inference model parameters were found between autistic participants and those with no diagnosis. Furthermore, participants incorporated information from both priors and likelihoods in their decisions, with no relationship between their weights and psychiatric traits, contrary to what common theories for both autism and schizophrenia would suggest. These findings suggest that there is no increased signal reverberation in autism, despite the known presence of excitation-to-inhibition imbalances. They can be used to further contrast and refine the Bayesian theories of schizophrenia and autism, revealing a divergence in the computational mechanisms underlying the two conditions.

SUBMITTER: Angeletos Chrysaitis N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8494311 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceThe frequency with which autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are diagnosed has shown a marked increase in recent years. One suggestion is that this is partly because of secular changes in the environment, yet to our knowledge this hypothesis lacks evidence.ObjectiveTo assess whether the relative importance of genetic and environmental associations with ASD and autistic traits has changed over a 16-year and 26-year period.Design, setting, and participantsA twin design was used to assess whether the heritability of ASD and autistic traits has changed over time. Data from 2 nationwide Swedish twin cohorts was used: the Swedish Twin Registry (STR; participants born between January 1982 and December 2008) and the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS; participants born between January 1992 and December 2008). Autism spectrum disorder diagnoses were identified for twins in the STR, with follow-up to 2013. Questionnaires assigned screening diagnoses of ASD to CATSS participants and assessed autistic traits. Analyses were performed from September 1, 2018, to March 31, 2019.ExposuresEach sample was divided into several birth cohorts covering 1982 to 1991 (for the STR only), 1992-1995, 1996-1999, 2000-2003, and 2004-2008.OutcomesWe assessed whether the genetric and environment variance underlying autistic traits changed across birth cohorts and examined whether the relative contribution of genetics and environment to liability for autism changed across birth cohorts.ResultsData were available for 22 678 twin pairs (5922 female same-sex pairs [26.1%], 5563 male same-sex pairs [24.5%], and 11193 opposite-sex pairs [49.4%]) in the STR and 15 280 pairs (4880 female same-sex pairs [31.9%], 5092 male same-sex pairs [33.3%], and 5308 opposite-sex pairs [34.7%]) in CATSS. The heritability of ASD diagnoses in the STR ranged from 0.88 (95% CI, 0.74-0.96) to 0.97 (95% CI, 0.89-0.99). The heritability of screening diagnoses in CATSS varied from 0.75 (95% CI, 0.58-0.87) to 0.93 (95% CI, 0.84-0.98). Autistic traits showed a modest variance increase over time that was associated with increases in genetic and environmental variance, with the total variance increasing from 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92-0.98) to 1.17 (95% CI, 1.13-1.21) over time.Conclusions and relevanceWeak evidence was found for changes in the genetic and environmental factors underlying ASD and autistic traits over time. Genetic factors played a consistently larger role than environmental factors. Environmental factors are thus unlikely to explain the increase in the prevalence of ASD.

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No increased circular inference in adults with high levels of autistic traits or autism.

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