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Impact of children born with low birth weight on stunting and wasting in Sindh province of Pakistan: a propensity score matching approach.

ABSTRACT: Low Birth Weight (LBW) is considered as a major public health issue and leading cause of neonatal death. Almost one in four newborns are reported as underweight in Pakistan. Children born with low birth weight are highly vulnerable to develop diseases and death and/or remain undernourished (i.e., stunted and wasted). This study determines the LBW newborns are more prone to develop stunting and wasting in province of Sindh, Pakistan. Moreover, regression-based estimation of the impact of LBW on the child health outcomes of under five years of age, may be prone to selection bias because of the nature of non-experimental data set, thus, propensity score matching methods are used in this study. Data for this study was used from Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS-2014). MICS is a two-stage, stratified cluster sampling household level data covering urban and rural areas and consists of 19,500 households from five administrative divisions and 28 districts of Sindh province of Pakistan. The total sample size of children less than five years of age after cleaning the data are 7781, of which 2095 are LBW having birth weight categorized as "smaller than average and very small" and 5686 are normal birth weight (NBW) having birth weight very large, larger than average, and average. This study employed propensity score matching (PSM) regression methods to understand whether the children born as low birth weight are more prone to stunting and wasting and/or both. In province of Sindh, moderate wasting children under five years were 21%, severe wasting 6% and both wasting and stunting 10%. The propensity score results are shown significant in all groups. Specifically, all four types of PSM methods confirm a significant difference in the potential outcome variables-meaning that a child born with LBW has a significant adverse effect on the potential child health outcome variables (stunting, wasting and both). Thus, the propensity score matching findings confirm a significant and adverse effect of LBW on potential health outcomes of under five children. Similarly, low birth weight children are significantly more likely to be moderately wasted (OR = 1.5, CI = 1.3-1.6) and severely wasted (OR = 1.6, CI = 1.3-2.0) and both (stunted and wasted, OR = 2.0, CI = 1.7-2.3) as compared to children with normal birth weight. Male children, if born with low birth weight, are significantly more likely to be moderately wasted (OR = 1.3, CI = 1.1-1.5) and both (wasted and stunted, OR = 1.3, CI = 1.1-1.5) than girls. This large data analysis finding proved that the LBW newborns are on higher risk to develop wasting and stunting in Pakistan.

SUBMITTER: Abbas F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8497567 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMultiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million).Methods and findingsWe fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario. We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends. The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses. This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question.ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

Project description:Maternal and child malnutrition is widely prevalent in low and middle income countries. In Pakistan, widespread food insecurity and malnutrition are the main contributors to poor health, low survival rates and the loss of human capital development. The nutritional status trends among children exhibit a continuous deteriorating with rates of malnutrition exceeding the WHO critical threshold. With the high prevalence of maternal and child malnutrition, it is important to identify effective preventative approaches, especially for reducing stunting in children under-five years of age. The primary aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of food-based interventions to prevent stunting in children under-five years.A mixed methods study design will be conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of food-based interventions to prevent stunting among children under-five years in districts Thatta and Sujawal, Sindh Province, Pakistan. The study will include cross sectional surveys, a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial and a process evaluation. The study participants will be pregnant women, lactating mothers and children under-five years. The cross-sectional surveys will be conducted with 7360 study participants at baseline and endline. For the randomized control trial, 5000 participants will be recruited and followed monthly for compliance of food-based supplements, dietary diversity, pregnancy outcomes, and maternal and child morbidity and mortality. Anthropometric measurements and hemoglobin levels will be measured at baseline, quarterly and at endline. The interventions will consist of locally produced lipid-based nutrient supplement (Wawamum) for children 6-23 months, micronutrient powders for children 24-59 months, and wheat soya blends for pregnant and lactating mothers. Government lady health workers will deliver interventions to participants. The effectiveness of the project will be measured in terms of the impact of the proposed interventions on stunting, nutritional status, micronutrient deficiencies, and other key indicators of the participants. The process evaluation will assess the acceptability, feasibility and potential barriers of project implementation through focus group discussions, key informant interviews and household surveys. Data analysis will be conducted using STATA version 12.There is considerable evidence on the effectiveness of food-based interventions in managing stunting in developing countries. However, these studies do not account for the local environmental factors and widespread nutrient deficiencies in Pakistan. These studies are often conducted in controlled environments, where the results cannot be generalized to programs operating under field conditions. The findings of this study will provide sufficient evidence to develop policies and programs aimed to prevent stunting in children 6-59 months and to improve maternal and child health and growth outcomes in poor resource settings.NCT02422953 . Registered on April 15, 2015.

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Impact of children born with low birth weight on stunting and wasting in Sindh province of Pakistan: a propensity score matching approach.

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