The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cerqueti R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8499905 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) by liquid biopsy is taking an increasing role in thoracic oncology management due to its predictive and prognostic value. For non-small cell lung cancer, it allows the detection of molecular mutations that can be targeted with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). We report the case of a patient with life-threatening hepatocellular failure and thrombotic microangiopathy at the diagnosis. A salvage chemotherapy was attempted, resulting in a major worsening of her general condition and the decision to stop all anti-cancer treatment. The liquid biopsy performed at the time of immunohistochemical non-small cell lung cancer diagnosis revealed within 7 days the presence of an epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) DEL19 activating mutation with 736,400 DNA copies/ml of plasma. It was finally decided to attempt a treatment with osimertinib (third generation anti-EGFR TKI) despite the fact that the patient was in a pre-mortem situation. Osimertinib led to a significant and prompt improvement of her performance status after only one week of treatment. The tumor tissue genotyping performed by next-generation sequencing (NGS) was available 10 days after starting TKI treatment. It revealed in addition to the EGFR DEL19 mutation, a JAK3 and EGFR amplification, highlighting the complex interactions between EGFR and the JAK/STAT signaling pathways. The first CT-scan performed after 2 months under osimertinib showed a tumor morphologic partial response. The biological assay showed a major decrease in the EGFR DEL19 mutation ctDNA levels (40.0 copies/ml). The liquid biopsy allowed an early implementation of a targeted therapy without which the patient would probably be dead. Testing for ctDNA should be discussed routinely at diagnosis in addition to tumor tissue genotyping for patient with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer that raise the clinical profile of oncogenic addiction.
| S-EPMC9797958 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveItaly has been largely involved by the COVID-19 pandemic. The present study aimed at evaluating the impact of the lockdown during the pandemic on mental health adopting both a longitudinal and a cross-sectional design. Accordingly, the study investigated general psychopathology a few weeks before the COVID-19 outbreak (T0) and during lockdown (T1), and the associations between lockdown-related environmental conditions, self-perceived worsening in daily living and psychopathology.Methods130 subjects (aged 18-60?years) were included in the longitudinal design, and an additional subsample of 541 subjects was recruited for the in-lockdown evaluation. Socio-demographic data and the Brief Symptom Inventory were collected both at T0 and T1. Moreover, at T1 an online survey was administered for the evaluation of lockdown-related environmental conditions and self-perceived variations in daily living induced by quarantine, along with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised.ResultsLongitudinal analysis showed that phobic anxiety and depressive symptoms increased at T1 as compared with T0, whereas interpersonal sensitivity and paranoid ideation decreased. Pre-existing general psychopathology predicted COVID-19-related post-traumatic symptomatology. Cross-sectional analyses underlined that self-perceived deteriorations in various areas of daily living were associated with general and post-traumatic psychopathology, and with several lockdown-related conditions, especially economic damage.ConclusionThe present study underlined a different trend of increased internalizing and decreased interpersonal symptoms during COVID-19 quarantine in Italy. Furthermore, the results showed that subjects with pre-existing psychopathology and those reporting economic damage during the pandemic were more likely to develop deterioration of their mental health.
| S-EPMC7716728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundVaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.MethodsTwenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.ResultsWe estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.ConclusionsThis study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.FundingVIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.
| S-EPMC8277373 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFollowing the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as well as averting hospitalizations and cases.MethodsWe used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Iota variants as identified in NYC. The model was calibrated and fitted to reported incidence in NYC, accounting for the relative transmissibility of each variant and vaccination rollout data. We simulated COVID-19 outbreak in NYC under the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination and compared the resulting disease burden with the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported under the actual pace of vaccination.FindingsWe found that without vaccination, there would have been a spring-wave of COVID-19 in NYC due to the spread of Alpha and Delta variants. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in NYC prevented such a wave, and averted 290,467 (95% CrI: 232,551 - 342,664) cases, 48,076 (95% CrI: 42,264 - 53,301) hospitalizations, and 8,508 (95% CrI: 7,374 - 9,543) deaths from December 14, 2020 to July 15, 2021.InterpretationOur study demonstrates that the vaccination program in NYC was instrumental to substantially reducing the COVID-19 burden and suppressing a surge of cases attributable to more transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps predominantly among unvaccinated individuals, our findings underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccine uptake and close the vaccination coverage gaps.FundingThis study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund.
| S-EPMC8556548 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The non-medical policies implemented by many countries to "flatten the curve" during the COVID-19 outbreak has people stranded in their homes and some, out of their homes unable to return due to the disruptions in the mobility network. The availability of rich datasets (in our case, Facebook) has made it possible to study the mobility dynamics and spatial distribution of people during lockdown in Italy. Our interpretation is an effort to look deeper, describing the movements occurred during lockdown, including the territorial differences. We observe that, initially, tourists left the country and later Italians abroad managed to return, thereby, stabilising the population. With regards to internal mobility, the earliest affected regions see higher number of stationary users in the initial days of the outbreak while this is less significant for the central/southern regions until the decree for the official lockdown on the 9th of March 2020, due 2 days later. Just before lockdown, there was not a significant exodus of people from the North to the rest of the country, instead, relocation of people between cities and their urban belts, but not towards remote areas. This will be elaborated in conclusions shedding light on possible changes in future cities.
| S-EPMC7680615 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study aims at identifying the tools necessary for COVID-19 health emergency management, with particular reference to the period following the first lockdown, a crucial phase in which it was important to favor the maintenance of protective behaviors. It also aims at identifying the messages and sources that were most effective in managing communication correctly in such a crucial phase that is likely characterized by a fall in perceived health risk (due to the flattening of the epidemic curve) and a simultaneous rise in perceived economic and social risks (due to the enduring calamity). Knowing what source will be most effective to convey a specific message is fundamental in enabling individuals to focus on and comply with the rules. At the same time, it is necessary to understand how the message should be presented, and the relationships between messages, sources and targets. To meet these goals, data were collected through a self-administered online questionnaire submitted to a sample of undergraduate students from a University in Lombardy-the region most affected by the pandemic in the first wave- (Study 1), and to a national sample composed of Italian citizens (Study 2). Through our first manipulation which explored the effectiveness of social norms in relation to different sources, we found that, in the national sample, the injunctive norm conveyed by the government was the most effective in promoting behavioral intentions. By contrast, among the students, results showed that for the critical group with a lower risk perception (less inclined to adopt prevention behavior) descriptive norms, which implicitly convey the risk perception of peers, were as effective as the government injunctive norm. Our second manipulation, identical in Study 1 and 2, compared four types of communication (emotional, exponential growth, both of them, or neutral). The neutral condition was the most memorable, but no condition was more effective than the others. Across all message types there was a high intention to adopt protective behaviors. The results indicate possible applicative implications of the adopted communicative tools.
| S-EPMC7987650 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8693686 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The fragmented and inefficient healthcare system in the United States leads to many preventable deaths and unnecessary costs every year. During a pandemic, the lives saved and economic benefits of a single-payer universal healthcare system relative to the status quo would be even greater. For Americans who are uninsured and underinsured, financial barriers to COVID-19 care delayed diagnosis and exacerbated transmission. Concurrently, deaths beyond COVID-19 accrued from the background rate of uninsurance. Universal healthcare would alleviate the mortality caused by the confluence of these factors. To evaluate the repercussions of incomplete insurance coverage in 2020, we calculated the elevated mortality attributable to the loss of employer-sponsored insurance and to background rates of uninsurance, summing with the increased COVID-19 mortality due to low insurance coverage. Incorporating the demography of the uninsured with age-specific COVID-19 and nonpandemic mortality, we estimated that a single-payer universal healthcare system would have saved about 212,000 lives in 2020 alone. We also calculated that US$105.6 billion of medical expenses associated with COVID-19 hospitalization could have been averted by a single-payer universal healthcare system over the course of the pandemic. These economic benefits are in addition to US$438 billion expected to be saved by single-payer universal healthcare during a nonpandemic year.
| S-EPMC9231482 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:As one of several countries that pledged to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Mozambique sought to reduce child, neonatal, and maternal mortality by two thirds by 2015. This study examines the impact of Mozambique's efforts between 1997 and 2015, highlighting the increases in intervention coverage that contributed to saving the most lives. Methods:A retrospective analysis of available household survey data was conducted using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Baseline mortality rates, cause-of-death distributions, and coverage of child, neonatal, and maternal interventions were entered as inputs. Changes in mortality rates, causes of death, and additional lives saved were calculated as results. Due to limited coverage data for the year 2015, we reported most results for the period 1997-2011. For 2011-2015 we reported additional lives saved for a subset of interventions. All analyses were performed at national and provincial level. Results:Our modelled estimates show that increases in intervention coverage from 1997 to 2011 saved an additional 422?282 child lives (0-59 months), 85?450 neonatal lives (0-1 month), and 6528 maternal lives beyond those already being saved at baseline coverage levels in 1997. Malaria remained the leading cause of child mortality from 1997 to 2011; prematurity, asphyxia, and sepsis remained the leading causes of neonatal mortality; and hemorrhage remained the leading cause of maternal mortality. Interventions to reduce acute malnutrition and promote artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria were responsible for the largest number of additional child lives saved in the 1997-2011 period. Increases in coverage of delivery management were responsible for most additional newborn and maternal lives saved in both periods in Mozambique. Conclusion:Mozambique has made impressive gains in reducing child mortality since 1997. Additional effort is needed to further reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in all provinces. More lives can be saved by continuing to increase coverage of existing health interventions and exploring new ways to reach underserved populations.
| S-EPMC6300161 | biostudies-literature