Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns.

ABSTRACT: The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate for local spreading events and only moderate restrictions remain necessary. In this equilibrium, daily cases stabilize around ten or fewer new infections per million people. However, stability is endangered if restrictions are relaxed or case numbers grow too high. The latter destabilization marks a tipping point beyond which the spread self-accelerates. We show that a lockdown can reestablish control and that recurring lockdowns are not necessary given sustained, moderate contact reduction. We illustrate how this strateg

SUBMITTER: Contreras S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8500516 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature